I am doing a final predictions series for the November 8th midterm elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Idaho-Louisiana
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) |
Governor: Perhaps no person is hating Ranked-Choice Voting less than former Governor Paul LePage as we head into the down stretch of the 2022 election. LePage won the Maine gubernatorial races in 2010 & 2014, but did so without 50% of the vote as Democrats and left-leaning (and now disgraced) Independent Eliot Cutler split their share of the light blue state and allowed the very conservative LePage to win. With RCV, though, LePage doesn't have this advantage, and honestly, it's possible that Gov. Janet Mills could've beaten him outright based on polls. With RCV, LePage's undefeated record in the Pine Tree State is about to come to an end.
House: Rep. Jared Golden (D) impressively beat his last opponent by 6-points in Maine's second congressional district, despite the seat going to Donald Trump by seven-points. This district is getting increasingly red in the Trump Era after being largely a gimme seat for the left during much of the Bush-Obama years, and I'm going to go against the status quo here. Most pundits assume that Golden's ability to win in 2018 & 2020 (plus RCV) will keep him safe, but I think that former Rep. Bruce Poliquin will be able to catch the shifting dynamics of this district by a large enough margin that he takes it back after losing to Golden in 2018. R+1
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| Wes Moore (D-MD) |
Governor: Republicans royally botched their nomination here. After eight years of Republican Gov. Larry Hogan holding this office, they declined to go with a moderate alternative in the primary, and instead picked Anti-Covid mandate activist Dan Cox as their standard-bearer. This will ensure that the Democrats will go with Wes Moore, a nonprofit executive, who will become only the fifth African-American governor in American history. D+1
Senate: Sen. Chris van Hollen is one of those incumbents you didn't realize was up for reelection, and as a result will easily take a second term.
House: The Democrats didn't pursue gerrymandering in the Old Line State as much as they could have, as this easily could've been a situation where all eight of the seats were held by Democrats (rumors abound that incumbent House Democrats who got too picky about who would be their constituents stopped the potential pickup). The only close race now is the 6th district, which features very rich Rep. Dave Trone, who spent a fortune to get into Congress and seems inclined to stay there (though he's self-funded less this cycle than in past years). Given the blue tilt of Maryland overall and the lack of competitive up-ballot races, I think Trone should be able to hold this Biden +10 district.
Massachusetts
Governor: Similar to Maryland, the Republicans in the state of Massachusetts chose to totally go all-in with conservative Trump acolyte Geoff Diehl, a former State Representative who lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2018. This year he's going to lose to State Attorney General Maura Healey, who will finally end the long drought of Democratic women running for Governor of Massachusetts unsuccessfully (despite the Bay State's blue tendencies, they turned down female Democratic nominees for governor in 2002 & 2014 who were widely expected to win). D+1
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| Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
Governor: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has had a huge first term in office, having to navigate Covid, a kidnapping attempt, & being on Joe Biden's vice presidential shortlist. She's come out beaming, though, and despite the very purple nature of Michigan (one of just five states that Donald Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020), her reelection feels secure. Republican Tudor Dixon has run an abysmal campaign, and while the race has tightened (you don't have easy races in the Great Lake State), Whitmer feels solid for a second term in office.
House: The big question, though, is whether or not Whitmer will be able to help down-ballot, as there are four House seats that are in contention here that could go a long way to staving off a big Republican House advantage nationally. The Democrats feel secure in getting a victory in the 3rd district given the hard-right position of nominee John Gibbs (who defeated Rep. Peter Meijer in the primary after Meijer voted to impeach Donald Trump), so Hillary Scholten will be the rare (only?) Evangelical Christian in the House Democrats come January. Both Reps. Elissa Slotkin (7th) and Dan Kildee (8th) are running in very slim Biden districts (he won the former by just under a point, the latter by just over two), but I'm thinking the combination of solid incumbents and Whitmer at the top of the ticket protect them both (both could fall if the R's are having a better-than-expected night). That leaves only the 10th district, where I think two-time Senate loser John James is about to win; had Rep. Andy Levin run here instead of the 11th (in a primary he lost), I think he might've hung on given Whitmer's unexpected strength, but without him, James takes it. Due to Michigan losing a House seat in redistricting, while Scholten's victory ensures that Democrats maintain 7 seats (even without Levin), losing Meijer will put the GOP at a net loss R-1.
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| Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) |
Governor: Just two years after the George Floyd Protests resulted in Minnesota making international news, Gov. Tim Walz's campaign has focused less on criminal justice and more on the economy & access to reproductive healthcare. While I do think the Democrats are more vulnerable down-ballot (specifically, I could see Attorney General Keith Ellison losing and ending a streak of Democrats winning that office that goes back to 1970), Walz should be secure in getting a second term over conservative State Sen. Scott Jensen.
House: At one point Minnesota was basically ensured to lose another seat in redistricting, but thanks to strong census participation (and a botched survey by the Trump administration), both sides hung on. This surely saved the Republicans, who dominate the non-Metro/Rochester region of the state but struggle in the areas where actual population growth is seen, from losing Michelle Fischbach. Right now, the only incumbent in trouble is Rep. Angie Craig (2nd district), but the blue tilt of her campaign combined with a weaker opponent should be enough to keep her for a third term.
Mississippi
House: Similar to Delaware, no statewide elections, so just pointing out that the status quo will be maintained here.
Missouri
Senate: Earlier this year, it appeared possible that former Gov. Eric Greitens (R) would stage a comeback after resigning in disgrace as Missouri's governor, but he lost the primary to Attorney General Eric Schmitt and in the deep red Show Me State, a non-controversial Republican is always going to end up on top.
Montana
House: There has been some crowing about Montana's 1st congressional district being competitive. There's a weird phenomenon where Democrats in historically blue areas are getting complacent about abortion rights (looking at you, Oregon), while in red states such as Montana (or earlier this year, Alaska), the alarms are sounding. I do think former Rep. Ryan Zinke (who resigned to be Trump's Secretary of the Interior) is tracking to get another term in office (and probably challenge Jon Tester in 2024), but Monica Tranel has run a good race for a district that Trump took by 7-points.
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