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| Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) |
As for 2022? Let's go with pessimistic confusion as the mood. The year started with clear signs we were in for a repeat of a traditional midterm environment, and I was already starting to write the political obituaries of several prominent politicians. Then came the Dobbs Supreme Court ruling outlawing a woman's access to abortion, and the special elections that followed, and Democrats clearly had some momentum. In recent days, that momentum has stalled, giving the Republicans the lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot (GCB) polling; the party who won the GCB has taken the House majority all but two times in the past 30 years (1996 & 2012), and it seems probable that the Republicans will, indeed, take the House. But I think there is some reason for optimism on the Democrats' side-they will head into Election Night with none of their incumbents certain to lose (this was not the case in 2010 or 2014...hell, it wasn't the case in 2018 which was a good year for Democrats), and it does seem like most GCB polling is over-estimating male voter turnout, which is an odd assumption given that men have not been the majority of voters since at least the 1950's (and in a post-Dobbs world, feels even more unlikely). As a rule, it's unwise to argue the crosstabs, but I do think that it makes the supposed Red Wave some are proclaiming to be suspect, if still entirely possible.
I'm going to stop there, and give you some of the predictions, and some "ground rules" for the predictions. I'll have more to say about the unusual state-of-the-race as we go forward and in conclusion, but know that, especially on an individual race basis, I have less confidence than I normally do, due to the strange national circumstances (high inflation against an increasingly polarized electorate & for the first time in decades, the clear specter of a former president likely to run for the White House again in 2024) and the lack of high-quality polling.
For anyone who is new to these recaps (welcome back anyone who has put up with my long-windedness before), there are a few notes I want to address straight-out:
1. I predict in every presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional race. No one can vote Tossup (well, you kind of can in Nevada, but that's a conversation for a different day), and so unlike a lot of other political sites you'll read, I will make calls in races that are genuine coin flips. Every year, no matter what, there are races that you just can't quite figure out the dynamics of the race or that are going to be so close that calling it confidently is impossible, and that's certainly true in 2022. I went with polling data, historical elections, demographic changes, insights from experts, and gut instinct to make my predictions, but I promise you there will be races that I will get wrong below, and am just going with what I know.
2. These are written a week before the election (I finalized this yesterday but started on October 24th). If something truly bizarre happens in the next week, I won't be able to catch it. That usually doesn't happen, but I'm putting it out there right now. Last minute surprises that might matter would include a surprise Supreme Court vacancy, any indictments of the Trump family or high-level former administration officials, any proclamations from Jerome Powell related to the economy, and of course any major international incident (particularly related to Ukraine or North Korea) or scandal involving the candidates. I will also not be able to catch any late-breaking polling change; this doesn't happen very often, but it does on occasion. The most notable example of this is 2016, when late-breaking polls showed that Hillary Clinton was losing ground in Wisconsin, perhaps the biggest alarm to her campaign, and one that I didn't catch when I wrote this four years ago.
3. Early voting is a brilliant idea (it's something that you should all do if you can, as you don't know if you'll wake up on Election Day feeling under-the-weather and have to make a difficult decision about whether to go to the polls and risk exposing potentially dozens of people to what's causing you to be under-the-weather or not voting in a race that could decide control of Congress). However, because of former President Trump's criticisms of mail-in balloting and early voting (which have been echoed by candidates this year like Doug Mastriano), I would strongly caution against reading into early voting metrics, especially those that favor Democrats. It is extremely likely that Republicans will vote in larger numbers on Election Day, and as a result we won't know how much they have countered (or perhaps beaten) those Democratic numbers until Election Night. These numbers are amazing to watch from a statistics perspective, but over-interpreting them to see who will win is a perilous journey, so proceed with caution.
4. I voted already (I took the above advice), and am very proud of my political beliefs. I will not pretend that there isn't a party I'm cheering for on November 8th. I try as hard as I might to not let that influence these predictions, however. I have had years where I was too kind to the Democrats (2016 being a big one), other years where I was too kind to the Republicans (2012 comes to mind). So below is a prediction of what I think will happen based on data & my own interpretation-I try really hard to not editorialize too much, but in an article this long, it's inevitable. However, my predictions are not wishcasting-they are my genuine guesses. Wanted to put that plug out there ahead of time, especially if we disagree politically, or to stave off people thinking this is how I'd actually vote.
5. Polling in 2022 is in an unusual place. While polling was generally strong in 2018, it was weak in 2016 & 2020, overestimating the Democratic position considerably, to the point where Democrats definitely felt confident in races that were eventually won by Susan Collins, Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson, & (in 2016) Donald Trump. It is unclear what the state of polling is in 2022. It's obvious that Republicans have something of an advantage (but not as sizable as you'd normally expect for a midterm), but it's possible that advantage is being understated yet again (if pollsters cannot get honest response rates from the GOP) or that Democrats are being underestimated this time (this happened in 2012, and given that Dobbs might invite more first-time women voters or pro-choice Republican women to cross sides in key races, this is the right environment for Democrats to be underestimated if they're ever going to be). Combined with a lack of strong polling in individual House races & a concerted effort (mostly by Republicans) to put out partisan polling to help shape the national media conversation...I'm going in blinder than I usually do in terms of gaging through data.
6. The last thing I want to plug before I begin is how to watch Election Night. It is possibly, especially if the Senate is decided by 1-2 races (which I will be predicting) that we might not know who will win on Election Day. Certain states that are famously slow at counting ballots like Arizona & Pennsylvania are hosting crucial Senate & Governor's races, so if it's a slim margin in either of these states, we might know the winner for the week. Also, due to the way that ballots are counted in certain states, make sure to pay attention while watching returns if they are counting early/mail-in ballots first (which favor Democrats) or if they are counting Election Day returns first (which favor Republicans). Steve Kornacki is very good at this on MSNBC if you want a real-time guide that isn't on Twitter, but don't over-assume until experts are telling you that you should celebrate or worry.
With that, we're going to dive in-states are discussed alphabetically, so we'll start with Alabama!
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
Alabama
Governor: Kay Ivey was far more vulnerable in a primary than she ever was going to be in a governor's race, and will easily take another term.
Senate: Katie Britt, who was at one point retiring Sen. Richard Shelby's Chief of Staff, also had her biggest competition in a convoluted primary, where former President Donald Trump endorsed her opponent (Rep. Mo Brooks), and then pulled his endorsement when Brooks struggled to solidify his spot in the race. Britt will join a growing number of Republicans who have never held elected office, though her work in Shelby's office in DC makes her more experienced than her future colleague Tommy Tuberville.
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| Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) |
Governor: For all of the talk about the ranked-choice voting impacting the battles for Congress, honestly, where I'm most curious about how it'll play out is in the gubernatorial race. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is the frontrunner, but doesn't appear likely to win 50% of the vote against State Rep. Les Gara (D) and former Governor Bill Walker (I). Gara & Walker share a lot of the same voters, and in any other state that'd be a problem, but here it will help them as long as Dunleavy stays under 50%. The question is who will get in second, and it does appear likely to be Gara, though arguably Dunleavy is more worried about facing Walker, who holds more of Gara's votes in polling. This will probably not be known for a week or more after the election, but while it's one-to-watch, I'm keeping my cards close-to-the-vest and guessing Dunleavy gets another term.
Senate: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), similar to Dunleavy, is in a four-way race where she appears unlikely to hit 50% of the vote. However, unlike Dunleavy there is reason to believe that Murkowski will peel off virtually all of Democrat Pat Chesbro's support in a ranked choice voting situation, and so this looks to be a rare case of a Trump-endorsed Republican losing to a Republican who voted against him for impeachment, as Trump's favorite Kelly Tshibaka is going to lose because Democrats will unite behind Murkowski.
House: This is likely why Murkowski publicly stated that she's voting for Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who recently won a special election a few weeks ago, and is headed to a probable victory this fall. Both Murkowski & even Peltola's own opponent former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) have heaped praise on Peltola, and with Palin & her fellow Republican Nick Begich unable to find common ground, Peltola seems like she's headed for a full-term, even if the Democrats don't take the majority.
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| Kari Lake (R-AZ) |
Governor: There are races where I genuinely have no confidence, and there are races where I feel like flipping a coin. For most of the past two months, I have felt like the Democrats' worst nightmare was about to happen. Local News Anchor and election denier Kari Lake (R) has felt on-track to win by a slim margin in Arizona, arguably the most important swing state in 2024 (Nevada & Pennsylvania being the others) against Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D). Hobbs has run a lousy campaign, and foolishly refused to debate Lake, a move that has cost her severely in terms of bad press. But Hobbs is clearly rebounding in the polls, and honestly, I think could win. I struggle here because my gut is saying Hobbs is about to pull this off at the last minute in an increasingly purple state, but I've been predicting Lake all season & I am going to stay with it (that would be a hold). I am guessing that the Secretary of State & Attorney General races come as a package with the Governor's office, so a lot is riding on Lake/Hobbs in a tossup here.
Senate: I'm feeling slightly better about the Senate race. I think the worry coming from Sen. Mark Kelly's (D) camp is real-even after running a truly atrocious campaign, Blake Masters (R) certainly has a shot, and maybe the Republicans made a mistake in triaging him so soon (we'll know based on the margin). But Kelly has virtually everything going for him, and unless there's a gigantic red wave (which I'm not predicting but am allowing for in my mind could happen, as it would've happened were it not for Dobbs), I think he pulls off winning a full term in the Senate. The first big Senate battle goes blue.
House: Okay, here is where things are going to get a little hairy, because redistricting makes figuring out "gains" considerably harder. But currently the Democrats have 5 House members, Republicans have 4. There are three competitive races on the map: AZ-1, 2, & 6. I think all three, to be honest, will go Republican, even though Biden won the 1st & 6th. The reason is that while Rep. Tom O'Halleran (2nd) has run the best race of the bunch, he's in the toughest contest, and won't be able to outrun the fundamentals of the year, while State Sen. Kirsten Engel hasn't run well-enough in the sixth even with it being a barely Biden district (I kind of think the DCCC dropped the ball not getting Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick back for one more Congress, as I think she'd take it) while the most liberal of the three, the 1st, has a Republican incumbent that won't be beat in a year that favors the GOP. As a result, I'll do R+2 for Arizona as they sweep all of the competitive contests. In an actual red wave, Rep. Greg Stanton in the 4th would be a problem, but I doubt the GOP can lose the Senate race and beat Stanton, so he stays.
Arkansas
Governor: Gov. Asa Hutchinson's retirement means that Christian fundamentalist & former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will follow in her father's footsteps to become governor of Arkansas...a state as a gay man I will no longer feel safe visiting with her in charge (which is a pity-Hot Springs is lovely).
Senate: Every year there's at least one senator who is so safe I honestly forgot they were up for reelection, and that is Sen. John Boozman (R) this year-easy hold.
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