(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
Idaho
Governor: While there are some races I'm curious about on the margins in Idaho (specifically the Attorney General & State Superintendent races), the governor's race should be an easy race for incumbent Brad Little (R) after he defeated his own lieutenant governor in the primary.
Senate: Mike Crapo, one of those backbencher Republicans who have been in Congress for decades but even the most astute DC insiders couldn't tell you a thing about them, wins another term in office.
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| Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) |
Governor: JB Pritzker has spent much of the last year becoming something of a meme on Twitter for reasons that I'm not entirely certain of (being a liberal Democrat governing a progressive state probably helps win you fans on left-leaning Elections Twitter). They'll have four more years to continue the tweets, as Pritzker will cruise to reelection
Senate: The same will be said for Tammy Duckworth. Six years after she defeated an incumbent, she'll take a second term with much less fanfare.
House: Illinois lost a seat in congressional redistricting, but despite already being stretched to the max, the Democrats weren't going to let that come out of their bank account. In undoubtedly the state most gerrymandered to favor the Democrats (Republicans can't complain-pass the anti-gerrymandering law if you want to get rid of it), Democrats seem poised to come out the winners. The two most competitive races are in IL-13 and IL-17, but both are Democrat-leaning at this point, with former Obama administration official Nikki Budzinski likely to cruise in the new 13th and while he's more vulnerable (another Democrat that could fall in a wave) in a seat Biden only won by 8-points, I think we're looking at TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen getting the 17th seat currently held by Rep. Cheri Bustos (D). As a result, this is D+1, though it's worth remembering that the Republicans are losing two seats so it's a bigger win than just getting Budzinski the flip.
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| Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) |
Senate: For reasons unknown, they keep polling this race, but this isn't 2008 anymore-even Evan Bayh loses Indiana by a wide margin now. Sen. Todd Young will coast to a second term.
House: Indiana's 1st congressional district is a ticking time bomb for the Democrats. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) is running for reelection in the seat Biden took by 8-points, but while I don't think he loses in 2022 (it doesn't quite feel like his time, though put this on the list of seats that could buckle in a red wave), the electorate here (a lot of white blue-collar, historically Democratic but Trump-friendly voters) means that it's hard to see Mrvan making it the whole decade. This article's just about 2022, though, and I think he pulls it off.
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| Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) |
Governor: Four years after Fred Hubbell came within inches of winning the governorship, Kim Reynolds (R) will sail to a second term in Iowa. The bigger question here is whether or not the Democrats will hold any constitutional offices in Iowa, as Republicans are going hard after Attorney General Tom Miller, Auditor Rob Sand (one of my favorite politicians in the country), and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald. If all three lose, it's difficult to see the Iowa Caucuses remaining relevant to the Democratic Party going forward, as there will be little risk in abandoning them for the more critical swing state of Nevada.
Senate: Ann Selzer, polling deity, came out with a shocking recent poll that indicated that Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), who has held office in Iowa for half a century and never lost a race, was leading his opponent Admiral Mike Franken (D) by just three points. This is not expected, and while I don't doubt Selzer, I feel like Grassley, who usually wins by 30+ points, aging & increasingly partisan in the Trump Era, will probably win by the 10-15 point ranges in what will be his last run for office. An ignoble way to go out, but a win is a win.
House: Republicans gerrymandered the hell out of Iowa despite laws in the state indicating this shouldn't be possible, and I think in 2022 this will pay off. Despite three seats that Joe Biden lost by less than 5-points, none of the Hawkeye State's seats look like they will be blue, though Selzer indicated that the 2nd district (held by Republican Ashley Hinson) and the 3rd (held by Democrat Cindy Axne) are closer than some might give credit for. This map poses risks for less neutral cycles. Republicans are banking on the state getting redder (which is has in the last decade), but if it doesn't the 2nd & 3rd are ripe for a wave, as is to some degree the 1st district. But in 2022...I think the Republicans will get their wish and oust Axne with no repercussions elsewhere. R+1
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| Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) |
Governor: Four years after now-Gov. Laura Kelly (D) defeated former Secretary of State Kris Kobach (who is probably getting a comeback in the state in the Attorney General's race...one to watch if you're looking down-ballot), she's facing a tough contest against current Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Kelly won four years ago after the Brownback administration spent a decade bankrupting the state's education system, and given that Kelly has started to rebound that process (and that neighboring Oklahoma is having a similar problem-more on that on Sunday), Kelly isn't totally a goner yet here...but in 2022, with a Democrat in the White House and this state still pretty red (though not blood red like it was 20 years ago thanks to the growing Kansas City metropolitan area), I can't predict she'll take this victory. R+1
Senate: At some point the growing Kansas City suburbs is going to become an actual problem for the Republicans in the Senate, as the rural population of the state is not like Missouri where it's easy to balance out, but in 2022 Sen. Jerry Moran (R) will be fine.
House: The House is where I think the Republicans made a critical error that's going to haunt them the remainder of the decade. The main play in gerrymandering the state was to get Rep. Sharice Davids (D) to lose the third district. In doing so, they put the second district at risk in future cycles when they easily could've just made the 3rd into a vote sink & come to terms with needing one Democratic seat in the state. This plan, unlike Iowa, I think won't come to fruition. While Kelly won't win statewide, she'll take the third district, and her strength combined with incumbency should be enough to get Davids a win in a district Biden won by 4-points (it'll be close though-even a Republican breeze could topple this), and Davids will continue to solidify her stance as this seat becomes bluer in future years...with the second district poising a problem for the GOP they could've avoided.
Kentucky
Senate: Two years after Democrats sank $100 million on a race against Sen. Mitch McConnell for no reason (he still won in a landslide), Democrats appear to have somewhat learned their lesson. Sen. Rand Paul will win in a walk, and luckily Democrats appear to just be out $6 million in the race. This is the second straight cycle where State Rep. Charles Booker will lose, and similar to Stacey Abrams & Beto O'Rourke, he's a politician who fell for his own hype. He easily could've gotten the strong blue Louisville seat held by retiring Rep. John Yarmuth and built up a profile in Congress, but alas, he went for the sugar high of taking on Paul, and it'll cost him his political career (he's not even forty yet).
Louisiana
Senate: Sen. John Kennedy, former Democrat and current Foghorn Leghorn impersonationist, will stroll to a second term with ease in the Bayou State.
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