(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| State Rep. Christy Smith (D-CA) |
Governor: Remember when the Republicans randomly ran a recall against Gov. Gavin Newsom, it got mildly close, and then everyone freaked out because they have a nearly 90-year-old senator in Dianne Feinstein who presently decides the Senate majority that would've gone red without Newsom? Well, Feinstein's still in office, the Senate is 50/50 and Newsom is going to cruise to another term with ease.
Senate: Sen. Alex Padilla was appointed to the seat formerly held by Vice President Kamala Harris, and will take a full-term in the Senate with no issues, likely becoming the state's senior senator by the end of his next term with Feinstein certain to retire.
House: All of the attention in California is in the House, where there are anywhere from 5-8 House seats that are genuinely competitive depending on whom you ask. Yours truly thinks there are six worth mentioning (people like Young Kim, Katie Porter, & Julia Brownley need harder waves than this year's to get ousted). Reps. Josh Harder (9th) & Mike Levin (49th) are both in double-digit Biden districts, and while it's clear the Democrats are nervous, I just don't see them losing this year...if I'm wrong about them, I got a lot of Democrats wrong because that means we're seeing a proper red wave. The 13th district is another Biden double-digit district, but it's open, so there's more potential for spontaneity. The Biden numbers of the district (plus Newsom & Padilla dominating statewide) has me believing that State Rep. Adam Gray gets to Congress even without incumbency. On the flip side, there's three Republicans who are running in Biden districts. The reddest of the three is Rep. Michelle Steel (45th) who I think could be in trouble in 2024, but her win in 2020 makes me feel like she's probably fine in an easier environment. I don't feel the same way about Rep. David Valadao, though, as the 22nd actually went harder for Biden than Harder, Gray, OR Levin's districts, and he has a top-tier opponent in State Rep. Rudy Salas. The tough demographics combined with Valadao alienating his right flank by voting to impeach Donald Trump makes me think Salas pulls this off. The final race, in the 27th, doesn't really make sense. Rep. Mike Garcia (R) is a hard-right candidate in a district Biden won by 12-points...but he's beaten his opponent State Rep. Christy Smith (D) twice before. This is a weird race, and it's possible that reverting to the fundamentals (and Dobbs) gets Smith a win no one is expecting (national groups have started to pull funding, essentially leaving Smith to fend for herself in the final weeks), but she's burned me twice before now so I'm not going to be fooled again-I'm guessing Garcia. D+1
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| State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer (R-CO) |
Governor: One of the more popular governors in the country right now is Jared Polis, and his moderation on Covid policies arguably helped him (he was one of the first high-profile Democrats to push back on masking mandates, which have become increasingly unpopular). He gets a second term, and probably explores a national run for office in the next six years.
Senate: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) ran for national office two years ago, though you'd be forgiven for not remembering (I doubt anyone outside his immediate family does). Bennet was a magician when he ran in 2010 (winning a primary he wasn't expected to win followed by a general election where he was an underdog). Then in 2016, he was surprisingly close in a gimme election. I think this will be a year with a similar margin, but given the investment Republicans have made in businessman Joe O'Dea, a high single-digit victory would be fine with Democrats.
House: Two districts stand out here (and no, one of them is not Rep. Lauren Boebert's, though as the decade progresses I suspect she'll eventually lose if we maintain the current lines as Colorado just keeps getting bluer). The 7th district I think the Democrats should be fine (it's a Biden +14.5 district, after all), though State Sen. Brittany Pettersen has not been as strong of a candidate as national Democrats had hoped for this open seat. More problematic is the race between State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer (R) and State Rep. Yadera Caraveo. Kirkmeyer has run the better campaign, and this is a slimmer Biden district (he won it by 4.7-points). I mentioned yesterday that I'm making some calls assuming there's not going to be a red wave...this is a race that I'm calling assuming that the Democrats are not going to actually be in play to hold the House (because they can't lose seats like the 8th if they want to hold the House). Kirkmeyer wins and instantly becomes a DCCC target for 2024. R+1
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| Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) |
Governor: Connecticut is famous for truly hating their governors, even the ones they reelect. So color me surprise when Ned Lamont wins in 2018 (after being an electoral almanac footnote in 2006) and people love the guy. Connecticut arguably became too hard for Republicans to win with Trump (unlike other New England states like Maine, the college-educated contingent in the state is too vast to overcome), but Lamont made it impossible by being so well-liked.
Senate: Sen. Richard Blumenthal is regularly name-checked by both Donald Trump & NRSC Chair Rick Scott as someone who could lose...but he won't. Again, the state doesn't look primed to go red in the Trump era, and the national environment isn't rough enough for him to fall. He'll continue to be a thorn in Trump's side for another six years.
House: Both the 2nd and 5th districts only went for Biden by 10-points, and of the two Rep. Jahana Hayes (in the 5th) feels the most vulnerable. This is an early closing time if you're watching on election night, so if Hayes starts going down, Democrats should start to panic as they're in for a 2010/2014 situation, but I don't think she will. Holds for both.
Delaware
House: Only listing this because Delaware has no other races. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) wins another term, and spends the next two years with her fingers crossed that Sen. Tom Carper finally retires so she can get a promotion.
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| Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) |
Governor: Oh god, let's just get this over with. Florida, for two decades one of the most important swing states in the country, is slowly losing that sheen as it becomes harder-and-harder for the Democrats to stay competitive enough in Miami to make up for the rest of the state. As a result, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will defeat former Governor Charlie Crist (D), and will become a probable candidate for president in 2024.
Senate: Rep. Val Demings (D) has run a pretty much perfect campaign against Sen. Marco Rubio (R), but she picked the wrong cycle to run in. 2022 is too red, and Florida is increasingly becoming out-of-reach for Democrats. Rubio gets another term in office, spinelessly pining for the presidential nomination he'll never get.
House: You might've noticed I haven't used the word "gerrymander" very much yet, and that's because while we've hit some states (specifically Arizona) that feel a bit egregious in how they're mapped, no state has clearly done a hatchet job...until Florida. The state gained a seat, so already Republicans are at an advantage, and further shored up Rep. Maria Salazar in the 27th (though to State Sen. Annette Taddeo's credit, she's run a very strong campaign & paved the path for future Democrats if they want to take a shot here). Retirements from Crist & Rep. Stephanie Murphy leave the Democrats without any chance in tough seats (kudos to Rep. Al Lawson for giving it a shot, but he's the surest incumbent to lose in either party). When the dust settles, the country's most consistently close state in the past 20 years will send just eight Democrats to Congress out of a possible 28 for an R+4.
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| Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) |
Governor: We've talked a lot about Stacey Abrams on this blog, to the point where I don't want to be accused of picking on her. Bad press that's started to break about her voting organization in the last week, though, isn't a great closer for an already broken campaign. I think she loses, and I don't think she even gets the dignity of going to a runoff against Gov. Brian Kemp (R).
Senate: Georgia is one of the most important states in the fight for the Senate...arguably the most important state if it goes to a runoff. In a sane world, Sen. Raphael Warnock, a reverend & one of the country's best public speakers, would not be close to Herschel Walker, once a Heisman Trophy winner, now a man who can barely speak in complete sentences (he pretty obviously exhibits signs of CTE even though you're not supposed to armchair diagnose). Walker has had multiple children he hadn't publicly acknowledged brought to the forefront during his campaign, as well as an abortion he paid for while proclaiming to be "pro-life" on the campaign trail, and has been publicly denounced by his son and ex-wife for making their lives hell for years...he shouldn't stand a chance. This is a race that I'm going head vs. gut. In my gut, I think Warnock gets this, and I think he gets it without a runoff. My head, though, wants to pull some of my more optimistic punches back, and so I'm going to predict this goes to a runoff, and not actually make a call here (if you want to call me out as wrong, you can do so if either guy wins it outright). If someone wins on November 8th, I think it's Warnock, but in a runoff where I don't know the dynamics, I can't call the race either way. So a draw.
House: Georgia's second congressional district could be vulnerable at some point, but not with two prominent Black politicians headlining the ticket. That said, thanks to gerrymandering, the Republicans net a seat here (that of Rep. Carolyn Boudreaux), though given the intense growth of the Atlanta suburbs, they are playing with fire in 2024 and beyond as this will probably turn into a dummymander, but for now R+1.
Hawaii
Governor: Democrats look like they'll hold the governor's mansion with Lt. Gov. Josh Green, sending former Lt. Governor Duke Aiona officially into "frequent candidate" status.
Senate: Sen. Brian Schatz continues to be low-key one of the country's most progressive senators, and will get another six years in office from the solidly blue Aloha State.
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