The Political Fall of Stacey Abrams

House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-GA)

I'm going to be honest here-I have the politics fatigue.  I can always tell when the Democrats are about to have a bad night when I'm genuinely exhausted & nervous talking about politics, rather than truly excited or just anxious. 2022 is frustrating in a unique way, primarily because it's an election that very easily could go to the Democrats.  In 2010 & 2014, the Democrats were going to lose almost the entire cycle-it was apparent to everyone (except somehow Ruth Bader Ginsburg) that the Democrats were about to drown in a red wave, and the only hope would be that they could hang onto something (in both years, like this year, at least we kept the White House).  2022 is more like 2002 or 2016, where there clearly was a recipe to win (in 2002 the Democrats easily could've held the Senate, in 2016 the trifecta was not that far off, and in particular the Oval Office & the Senate were so close I predicted they'd take them).  In 2022, the Senate is still a 50/50 affair, and the House is unusual enough that Democrats could hang on if they were able to overcome the clear enthusiasm problem they're starting to fight (look at likely voter screens versus registered voter screens & you'll literally see the difference between Speaker Pelosi and Marjorie Taylor Greene taking over DC).  But, I'll be honest-I am becoming more & more skeptical by-the day that Democrats might leave it all on the table (at this point, I'll be happy if Joe Manchin remains the King of the Senate for two more years).

So while I'd normally fill the next few weeks with political articles, I'm not feeling it.  My mental health can't handle it right now, and so here's how we're going to go.  From November 1st to November 7th, I promise we will be getting a large, "no tossups allowed" final run of articles that will profile every single state (as we have done every year since 2014).  November 9th, we will do a postmortem, and then after that we will almost certainly do our traditional break from politics, as I will be emotionally wiped out, and we will focus on movies pretty much exclusively.  In the meantime, I will write what interests me about politics, but the only things I'm promising on the blog are scary movies & more Walter Brennan love...

...and today's article.  Because I cannot let this cycle go without having a discussion about undoubtedly the worst Democratic candidate for major office in the country right now, and a name I didn't expect to flop this badly: Stacey Abrams.  Abrams has long been a figure that has frustrated me, because her clear talent for fundraising and exciting her base has never once matched her political acumen.  Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed in the past decade to find someone who has squandered an opportunity as hard as Abrams did.

Abrams came to prominence in 2018, when she handily defeated State Rep. Stacey Evans to become the first Black woman to headline a major party's gubernatorial ticket.  That year, thanks to the strength of her campaign, though in hindsight thanks more to the growing Atlanta suburbs & Donald Trump being loathed in the increasingly blue area, Abrams performed respectably against Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the best performance from a Democrat in Georgia for governor since Roy Barnes in 1998.  But Abrams made a move after that that would ultimately spell her electoral doom.

Abrams refused to concede to Kemp.  Abrams correctly stated that tens of thousands of voter applications had been put on-hold by Kemp, many of them for African-Americans who lived in the state (who would've been inclined to vote for Kemp).  This was on-top of a long tenure of Kemp using his office of Secretary of State to purge Georgia's voter roles.  This wasn't necessarily inaccurate, but it led to Abrams being labelled a sore loser.  This was particularly egregious given in 2019 she gave a speech where she said "We won" despite the fact, that while Kemp's actions were suspect, they were A) something she knew going into the night & should've planned around if she wanted to win and B) there's no evidence that she would've beaten Kemp even if all of those applications went through.  To say you won when you clearly lost under the basis of the law...there are shades of Donald Trump there, I'm just going to say it (and I heartily endorsed Abrams in 2018).

That refusal to acknowledge & learn from her defeat wouldn't have been the end for Stacey Abrams, but she clearly couldn't get past the loss, and turned down other chances repeatedly to get back into office.  Abrams would've been a clear-the-field nominee to run against Sen. David Perdue if she'd just conceded & made a point of registering the voters that Kemp had left behind.  She didn't, though, and Perdue faced Jon Ossoff instead (who won).  She refused to get into the open seat race left by the retirement of Johnny Isakson, so instead Rev. Raphael Warnock ran (and won).  Despite the nomination being gifted to her on a silver platter, after the death of Rep. John Lewis, she didn't run for what would've been an easy, safe House seat which she could use to parlay into national fame & bide her time to get back into a statewide race that would be easier than 2018 (Abrams is not yet fifty-if she wants to be president, this would've been a good tactic as she could survive bad cycles & run statewide when it was most advantageous for her ambitions...it's what Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is doing in New York).  But she turned it down, and instead the job went to Nikema Williams.  And when she could've run the DNC, giving her four years of national connections, lots of press time, & an excuse to bide her time until a future opening in Georgia in 2026 or 2028, she turned it down (the job went to Jaime Harrison, who has honestly been terrible so this was not just a loss for Abrams, but for the whole party).

Instead, Abrams continued to double down on her election being stolen, and aggressively pursued the position of Joe Biden's vice presidential nominee, despite not being remotely qualified for the job given she'd never held federal or high executive office, and her last race was a loss (the position went of course to Kamala Harris, who ended up winning the vice presidency).  Abrams finally decided to run for high office gain, but against an incumbent Brian Kemp...in a purple state...in a Democratic midterm...after Kemp publicly backed the democratic process in Georgia, making him much harder to defeat.

In three weeks, Abrams will lose the gubernatorial election (I doubt at this point she'll even be able to advance to a runoff).  And with that, Abrams will become a political footnote.  People occasionally come back from two high-profile losses (Tom Kean, Jr. and John James are both probably going to be in the next Congress after two close losses, on the opposite side-of-the-aisle Christy Smith may join them), but Abrams won't be one of them.  That's partially because her second campaign has been a series of blunders, it's partially because her tacit connection with "The Big Lie" makes her difficult to contend with electorally (no one wants to elevate a politician whose an easy target for false equivalencies), & because pretty much anyone who has paid attention knows she didn't just lose two gubernatorial races, but also Senate, House, & DNC jobs that would've been an easier lift.  It's possible Abrams makes it into the Biden administration in some capacity, and it's certain she'll become a talking head on a major network.  But for a woman who clearly wanted to become president someday...this has to be a tough end of the road to those dreams, particularly since if she'd taken literally any other turn in the road, that would still be in the cards.