There are a lot of questions that can come forward with a conversation about Spider-Man's box office, some good (this is great for a struggling theater industry that was desperate for a "must see" hit), some bad (in a world where only Marvel movies can make money, how will new talents survive in a streaming industry where even storied legends like Mike Leigh can't get a movie made?), and some ethical (should we be celebrating the fact that millions of people are congregating, likely without masks on, in crowded spaces where they could be exposed to Covid?).
I'm choosing, though, to look at the inquisitive angle. After a year where a slew of films couldn't reach this feat (it's worth noting that this is the fourth Marvel movie that came out this year alone, so it wasn't like Marvel got an easy blank check here-kudos to Spider-Man), what comes next? We don't know how theater traffic will be impacted in the coming weeks, particularly with Omicron & the general January drought of major contenders (I said this to a friend recently, but Hollywood was a group of idiots to move the Oscars back when most of the films in the hunt for the trophy won't be in theaters anymore), but it stands to reason that at least one (and hopefully more) movie in 2022 will be the "next $1 billion movie" and so I thought it'd be fun to take a look at the five most-likely contenders from 2022 that could hit this threshold, and why (and why not) they might make the cut.
I'll list below in chronological order (as of today-movie release dates change a LOT in the Covid Era), who could be the next billion dollar picture. One thing I will note is that these are all American/English-language films. In 2021, though, some of the most successful films were released from China; The Battle at Lake Changjin and Hi, Mom were both massive hits that were seen almost nowhere other than China, and as a result it's possible that the next major $1 billion release will come from China I unfortunately don't have enough knowledge of Chinese cinema to know which title might make the most sense, though, so I'll be sticking to American titles exclusively here.
Release Date: March 4th
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: While Marvel gets a lot of the credit because it's boasted the biggest hits in the comic book world, anyone sleeping on DC as a potential $1 billion release has not been paying attention in recent years. While Wonder Woman 1984 was a bust in the pandemic (even if it wasn't release in theaters, that was probably for the best given its critical reaction), and The Suicide Squad suffered from a simultaneous release with HBO Max, DC is a powerhouse in terms of $1 billion releases. In 2018-19, it had two movies hit that number (Aquaman and Joker), and the Christopher Nolan films had two such achievements. All of this is to say that The Batman is the first serious threat for $1 billion in 2022.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: It's much darker than something like Aquaman, and Robert Pattinson isn't what you'd call a personable movie star (it's worth noting that though they were all massive hits, none of the Twilight films got him to $1 billion). This film also doesn't have quite the obvious "guest star" cache that Spider-Man did, and it doesn't have an obvious connection to the larger Justice League franchise quite yet.
What It Could Mean Down the Road: The Batman is the first major release from Warner Brothers that will not have a simultaneous HBO Max release date. If that's successful, other titles like Black Adam and The Flash could become potential threats for $1 billion; it will also likely mean the end of Warner Brothers' bizarre experiment with having its tentpole films released in theaters & streaming at the same time (which surely hurt the box offices of movies like Dune and Godzilla vs. Kong). If this falls short, don't expect a DCEU release to be in contention for the $1 billion title until Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in December.
Release Date: May 6th
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Of the 49 films that have crossed the $1 billion marker, ten of them have been part of the MCU. Coming off of the major success of Spider-Man: No Way Home, Occum's Razor would dictate that the next major release from MCU should be seen seriously as a contender for the title. It helps Marvel that Doctor Strange is going to be seen as a clear sequel to Spider-Man: No Way Home (it's not clear if Tom Holland will be in the film yet, but you can hardly count him out), as Benedict Cumberbatch played a major part in the recent movie. Add in intrigue from the WandaVision series, and you've got a surefire hit here.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: The question isn't whether it will make money, but whether it will hit $1 billion, and there are some reasons to believe it won't. The original Doctor Strange made $678 million in 2016, far short of other comic book titles that year like Captain America: Civil War, Deadpool, and Suicide Squad. Doctor Strange is at best a mid-tier hero in the Marvel pantheon, and so while it seems probable he could gain on that $678 million (intrigue will be high here), a billion dollars is a pretty big jump from the original picture for a character that isn't name-checked as a favorite Avenger by most fans.
What It Could Mean Down the Road: Marvel has two other films coming out in 2022, and the strength of this film could give us a hint at how these two will do. Thor: Love and Thunder has an easier jumping off point (the last film made $850 million), and will be a major player in the summer months, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is actually succeeding a billion dollar movie, though it's doing so without its original star Chadwick Boseman (and with a deeply-troubled production). Either could also be in contention for the $1 billion title, but we'll learn more from Doctor Strange to see what an "average" Marvel movie makes in a hopefully post-pandemic world.
Release Date: June 10th
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Put simply, because all of them do. While the second and third Jurassic Park movies didn't make it to $1 billion, both of the Jurassic World movies did, and there's little indication that this movie, which will reunite some of the stars of the original franchise (not only are Chris Pratt & Bryce Dallas Howard returning, but so are Jeff Goldblum, Sam Neill, & Laura Dern), won't have the same level of enthusiasm, particularly as this is seen as the end of an era for the Jurassic World films (it's not clear yet whether any of the five listed stars will return for any future installments).
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Jurassic World is the surest bet of a movie that would've made $1 billion before the pandemic (that will certainly be released in 2022) on this list. But there are several films from 2021 like F9: The Fast Saga and No Time to Die that normally would've gotten closer to $1 billion but couldn't pull it off. One of the worries for movie fans is that the only films that can make it to the billion dollar threshold as more people stay home to watch movies will be comic book films...if Jurassic World can't even get to $1 billion, they could well be right.
What It Could Mean Down the Road: There's a lot of franchises or action-adventures in 2022 that would fit into the mold of Jurassic World (wildly successful, some installments at or approaching a billion dollars) that we will need to see how audiences react in a post-pandemic theatrical world. Among them are Fantastic Beasts 3, Mission Impossible 7, Bullet Train, and Uncharted...if one of these is an unexpected hit, it shows there's room in the world for something that isn't Marvel, DC, or George Lucas.
Release Date: July 1st
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I definitely wanted to include an animated film in this list, but wavered a bit on which one to do. Animated films make up 11 of the 49 billion dollar movies, and two of those eleven films are part of the Despicable Me franchise (the last two movies in the franchise), which is why I settled on this Minions sequel. One of the bigger questions around children's movies have been whether or not they'd be released simultaneously on streaming. By July, all children over five will have been eligible to be vaccinated (possibly more if Pfizer is able to get a vaccine for those under five), and unlike some of the Disney releases from this past year, Minions: The Rise of Gru will be exclusively in theaters.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Few films got hit harder for their Box Office expectations in 2021 than animated films. To date, no animated film has reached $200 million (it's probable Encanto will hit it by the end of its run, though it won't hit much more than that as it's now on Disney+). Raya and the Last Dragon didn't light the box office on fire, Luca wasn't even released in theaters, & The Addams Family 2 made half as much as its predecessor. It's clear that no animated film has found the formula to succeed since the pandemic broke-is Minions: The Rise of Gru the answer?
What It Could Mean Down the Road: There's a lot at stake if something like Minions misses, as there's a lot of major animated franchises, as well as potential new ones, coming out next year that need some box office love. Everything from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to Lightyear to Turning Red to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to The Ice Age Adventures of Buck Wild to DC League of Super-Pets are all films that in a different world we'd be talking about hitting a box office grand slam. One of these films needs to hit the $1 billion marker during 2022 or else situations like Luca are going to become more common.
Release Date: December 16th
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: It's the sequel to the highest-grossing film of all-time. There are countless jokes about its release schedule, the plethora of sequels that James Cameron has planned, and whether or not the original was all that good to begin with, but it won't matter. The effects wizardry on display here & the fact that Cameron's movies always resonate with audiences will add up to a surefire hit. For perspective, it could make half as much as the original, and it'd still be positioned right outside the Top 10 highest-grossing films of all-time (easily exceeding a billion dollars).
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: The biggest reason here isn't the box office or the state of the theater industry, but instead whether or not Cameron can make the film. Similar to George RR Martin with Game of Thrones books, it's a hit...if it ever gets released. Cameron is clearly working on the films, and the recent investment by Disney to include a Pandora in their Animal Kingdom park indicates that unlike Martin, there's some clear determination to get this done, but Avatar 2 is definitely a film I won't believe exists until I'm clutching my ticket.
What It Could Mean Down the Road: If Avatar 2 can't make $1 billion, the theater industry is dead. It's pretty much that simple. Similar to Spider-Man: No Way Home, this is the sort of movie that is designed to be a billion-dollar hit.
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