The Precedence of Adelita Grijalva

Rep-Elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ)

In case you were unaware, the government is currently involved in a shutdown.  Despite the Republicans having control of the White House, Senate, and US House of Representatives, they are unable to get a bill passed through Congress due to Democrats filibustering in the Senate, and unwillingness in their own party to break a filibuster (something that I suspect will hold-it's hard to see Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, or Rand Paul destroying the filibuster over this, though I could be wrong...you'd need at least one to do it though).  The end game here is almost certainly a compromise over healthcare, which is usually how this works-a compromise where neither party gets exactly what they want.

Hanging over this government shutdown, though, is a recent special election in the state of Arizona.  In March, Rep. Raul Grijalva lost his battle with cancer, and a special election was held on September 23rd, with his daughter Adelita winning the seat.  Both father and daughter in this case are Democrats, and Adelita Grijalva won in a landslide.  As of today, however, Grijalva has still not been sworn into Congress, despite it being apparent that she has won, and Speaker Mike Johnson appears to be actively trying to prevent her from being sworn in until after the vote on the government shutdown.  This has drawn unanimous criticism from Democrats, who have actively started to protest and even yell at Speaker Johnson in the halls of Congress, and have many wondering if this is a preview of Republican attempts to delay swearing in in an another break of political norms, with worries that this is a preview of how they will treat next year's midterms.

I think it's important to note a few things before we get into my thoughts on what's happening here, as facts should always matter first.  To start, Grijalva's election results, which are not in doubt (she is the winner, and not even Republicans are claiming otherwise) are not technically certified yet.  They will be certified on October 14th by the Arizona Secretary of State, so legally, she is currently just the projected victor, even though everyone knows she will become the victor legally on October 14th.  This brings me to my second point, which is that when it's clear that a special election victor has won, the House has generally proceeded to swearing in that incumbent as soon as possible.  That has been true even this 119th Congress, when Mike Johnson swore in both Jimmy Patronis & Randy Fine when they won seats in Florida in April (days before their races were officially certified by the Florida Board of Elections), and even for Democrat James Walkinshaw, who was sworn in the day after his election in Virginia, even though his election wasn't certified until a week later.  It's worth noting that in the case of both Patronis & Fine, they were sworn in during a "pro forma session," when the House isn't technically in session, but the Speaker has the ability to swear in new members.  I say this because the House has been in a pro forma session this week, so there was a time frame to swear in Grijalva if needed.

I bring this up because Johnson is claiming that he cannot swear in Grijalva until the government is funded.  This is simply not true, particularly if you look at precedence.  During the government shutdown of 2018-19, Congress switched sessions, so every member (including Mike Johnson) were technically sworn in during a government shutdown.  You could make the argument that the House is truly not in session, but that's also not true if you count a pro forma session (which is what Patronis & Fine were sworn in during).  Democrats are actively trying to get Grijalva sworn in.  You can see here a video of Rep. Greg Stanton attempting to get the acting Speaker (note, not Mike Johnson) to swear in Grijalva.  Johnson was also confronted by Sens. Mark Kelly & Ruben Gallego (you can see the video here) with Johnson largely making up excuses about the members already having their swearing in's scheduled as the reason the two Republicans were able to be sworn in, which of course is bullshit.  Johnson himself said during a press conference that he was happy to swear in Grijalva "as soon as she wants" before backtracking and saying he would only do it if the Democrats reopened the government.

Grijalva technically doesn't have anything but precedence to stand on until the certification on the 14th (by which point, to be honest, I suspect the government will probably be opened), but it's worth wondering what Johnson's end game is here.  Johnson might be able to stave off getting Grijalva confirmed until there's alignment on a vote to open the government, but it's worth noting that's not what he's clearly trying to avoid by keeping her from being sworn in (i.e. he's not worried another Democrat on the floor will make a difference in the government funding bill).  No matter what he says, it's flagrantly obvious that Johnson is attempting to stop a discharge petition to require a vote on the Jeffrey Epstein files being released on the floor of the US House.

This is because, given that the discharge petition has four Republican signatories (Thomas Massie, Nancy Mace, Marjorie Taylor Greene, & Lauren Boebert), with every single Democrat in the House already signed onto the bill, if Grijalva is confirmed, she can sign the petition (and she has stated publicly that she will) and force a vote on the floor of the House to release the Epstein files, which given 218 members have said they will force the vote, it would be guaranteed to pass.  The remaining Republicans in Congress would have to choose in this situation-do they vote to release the Epstein files, which the majority of America (and much of their base) wants, or do they back Donald Trump, who clearly does not want the Epstein files to be released given his personal relationship with the deceased sex offender.  Swing district Republicans, in particular, would be asked to choose between helping Trump (famous for being vengeful to those who cross him) and severely damaging their reelection campaigns.

This isn't the end of this story-the House vote would not necessarily get the files released.  It'd have to go through the Senate, make it past the president's desk, and even then it's likely that Trump's Justice Department would attempt to redact portions of it.  But this would still be a huge blow to the president, and make it considerably likelier that the public would finally get to see what's in the files, including potentially damaging information on Trump.  It seems apparent to anyone with two brain cells (but for legal reasons I'll say this is just alleged) that Trump's continued fight to block the release of these would indicate he is implicated in these files, which could potentially destroy his career (and certainly hurt his party's electoral prospects as long as they stand by him).  It's worth wondering, given Johnson's willingness to risk his Speakership in such a way, if other prominent members of the Republican Party are also listed that are pushing Johnson to stop this behind the scenes (but again, that's just speculation).

Johnson's refusal to seat Grijalva is chilling, and seriously undemocratic in a way that is sadly not unprecedented (the Republicans' attempts to stop Allison Riggs from taking her seat after winning the North Carolina Supreme Court election last year were far more shocking, in my humbled opinion), and is something that feels ominous for the future.  But I'll be honest-it's hard to wonder what Johnson's endgame is here.  There's no world where Grijalva doesn't end up in the House, and public statements from all four Republicans has indicated they aren't backing down (if anything, Marjorie Taylor Greene has become anti-Republican in recent weeks in a way I haven't seen from her since Trump retook office).  This vote IS coming...Johnson's attempts to stop it are almost more intriguing because he knows this is futile than if he had some clear room to play.