Why Democrats Should Take (Another) Chance on Christina Bohannan

State Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-IA)

This past week, former State Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-IA) announced that she was running for Congress in Iowa.  This isn't entirely surprising.  Bohannan lost her race in Iowa in 2024 against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by less than 1000-votes, a blindingly tight margin given that Donald Trump was winning the race by 8-points that night in a blowout in Iowa over Kamala Harris.  But Bohannan also lost the 2022 race against Miller-Meeks, again by a very close margin against a sitting incumbent...but a loss nonetheless.  This means that she will be seeking a run for Congress after two losses, something that if you read my blog you know I do not typically support (I am very much a "fool me twice, shame on you...fool me thrice, shame on me" strategist when it comes to campaigns).  But with Bohannan, I am making an exception to the rule, and I wanted to talk about why, and also the history of the current House and why Bohannan is running an uphill battle (even though it's one I think she'll win).

Running for Congress once and losing, and then running a second race and winning is pretty common.  Of the 432 current members of the US House, 16% of them followed this path.  This includes people like Young Kim, Steven Horsford, & Pete Sessions, who all ran for Congress as incumbents, lost, and then ran again (something that Rep. Yadira Caraveo is attempting next year, something we talked about here).  It also includes people like Roger Williams, Michael Baumgartner, & Troy Downing, who ran for the Senate but didn't win before then seeking a seat in the US House.  But the point is-this is pretty common, and we're likely to see a number of people trying this this cycle, some of them successfully.

But what Bohannan is attempting is much, much rarer.  While 69 members have come in with one previous congressional loss, only 9 have done so with two previous congressional losses.  Most of these have something unusual about them.  Nick Begich ran in a special election and a general election before winning (so not really the same as Bohannan in that there was a special election involved), while John James lost two Senate races, not two races for the same House seat.  Ryan MacKenzie never actually made it to the ballot in either of his two runs for the House before pulling off a victory in 2024.  Ro Khanna, Jeff Crank, Adriano Espaillat, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, & David Schweikert had at least one of their losses come from primaries, so they didn't get as high-profile of a loss in a general election.  The only current member who lost two congressional races as a general election candidate and won on their third try is Mark Takano, who lost two races to Rep. Ken Calvert in 1992 & 1994, and then in 2012 staged a comeback bid and won a House race in a redrawn district.

It's worth noting, even with the current Congress, that Bohannan could conceivably lose three races, and still end up in Congress, and not be alone.  Five current members won on their fourth try for Congress.  They include Mark Harris, Tom Kean, Jr., Ed Case (who like Kim, Horsford, & Sessions, did so as a previous member), Juan Vargas, &, well, Mariannette Miller-Meeks.  Yes, the woman that Bohannan tried to beat lost races for her swingy seat in 2008, 2010, & 2014 before finally getting a victory in 2020, winning that race by a staggeringly close 6 votes (not percentage points...votes).

So why do I support someone like Bohannan, while someone like, say, Rudy Salas (who is attempting the same thing in California this year) I am actively hoping we end up with a different candidate?  It's because Bohannan has consistently outperformed or matched her environment.  It's clear to me that in 2024, had Harris done even a little bit better nationally, Bohannan would've won even if Trump still won the seat.  In 2022, she outran expectations (and her party's gubernatorial nominee).  This is a candidate that has been dealt bad cards two cycles in a row, and either matched or (in 2024) dramatically exceeded those expectations.  Iowa is a tough environment for Democrats right now-there's no evidence that we have a better option lying around, and the party is putting up a strong slate with Rob Sand for Governor and either JD Scholten or Zach Wahls for the Senate.  In a stronger blue environment, Bohannan has what it takes to finally get a victory (if she assembled the kind of coalition she got in 2024, she'd win).  This is admittedly in a red-trending state, and her chances of holding this seat (against a stronger candidate than Miller-Meeks, an exceedingly weak incumbent) in 2028 means she'd start reelection as an underdog...but you fight one election at a time in politics & that is a problem for a different day.  In 2026...I think she's still a good bet despite two previous losses.