Jack Ciattarelli's Impossible Quest

State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R-NJ)

Last night in New Jersey, one of only two states holding gubernatorial races this year, both parties chose their nominees.  The Democrats in a deeply crowded field that featured the Mayors of Newark & Jersey City, a former Senate President, and two sitting members of Congress saw Rep. Mikie Sherrill win the nomination by a pretty sizable margin (votes are still being tabulated, but while it's not the point of this article it is downright embarrassing that Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a current member of the US House, got a distant 4th place in this race, even if it likely won't impact his chances at running for reelection next year).  On the Republican side, the GOP overwhelmingly chose former State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli, who came into the race with the endorsement of President Trump.

Ciattarelli might be a name that you know, and it's because this is his third time running for Governor of New Jersey.  In 2017, he ran against the establishment favorite (Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno) and despite Guadagno going in with virtually every advantage into the race, he held her below 50%.  This allowed him to run in 2021 as the Republican nominee (side note, and maybe a story for a different day, but I never put together that in 2021 Ciattarelli ran with longtime Republican moderate Diane Allen, a New Jersey GOP staple who, had they nominated her in 2002, likely could've pulled off an upset and made sure the Democrats didn't get the Senate majority in 2006), where Ciattarelli nearly beat Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy (D), losing by less than 3-points, in what was one of the worst electoral nights of Joe Biden's presidency for the Democrats (until 2024).

Ciattarelli is not a gadfly candidate, and Republicans are rightfully excited about his potential.  Unlike a lot of recent races (like what's going in Virginia right now), they didn't nominate someone totally toxic to moderate voters, and come off of a 2024 election where Donald Trump came within 6-points of beating Kamala Harris in the normally sapphire-blue Garden State, there is a sense of "is this a fluke or this a trend?" particularly given Sherrill has a congressional record that Ciattarelli can run against.

But I have some cold water to splash on the New Jersey GOP-this is not the cycle that Ciattarelli can pull this off.  I do think that he will do better than a more generic or conservative Republican would do, perhaps even getting the race closer than Winsome Earle-Sears does in Virginia.  Phil Murphy is deeply unpopular, and New Jersey does enjoy switching parties when they get a new governor.  But they care about national trends more.  Ciattarelli is one of those candidates who has largely matched the mood of the country-he has not (yet) proven to be a Laura Kelly/Andy Beshear/Susan Collins-style candidate who can outrun by almost godlike margins against his party.  In many ways he reminds me of Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams-an impressive candidate, one who got very close in a cycle for him that was solid...but that doesn't have the juice if the national wind isn't already at his back.

Because let's face it-despite the country still being divided (inexplicably so) over Trump's views on immigration and democratic norms, wallets are pinched, 401k's are down, and people do not like the direction of the country.  When that happens, especially in an off-year election, they tend to rebel against the party in power, and that's particularly true for New Jersey.  While Democratic gubernatorial candidates have won with Democrats in the White House (Murphy did so in 2021), Republicans haven't.  In the past 40 years, the only two Republican Governors of New Jersey (Christie Todd Whitman & Chris Christie) were both elected in the wake of a Democratic presidential victory.  Without that, no matter what Ciattarelli does...you're going to have Governor Sherrill.