Yesterday was my birthday, so I will be honest that I did not feel like writing, but we are not skipping what is one of the biggest electoral stories of the year...times two. This past week, both Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) announced their retirements as Congress tries to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (I can't believe that's what they decided to call it), with Tillis doing it directly as a result of his lack of support of the bill, and the ensuing attacks from Donald Trump that came afterward. As is our wont here, we will be doing our typical "five thoughts" quarterbacking about what these retirements mean for 2026.
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| Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) |
Sen. Tillis's retirement is a game-changer in a lot of ways, but the biggest is because it was linked to Trump. According to reports (none of which have been substantiated convincingly, so take with something of a grain of salt), Tillis had been considering retiring for a while, and with Trump attacking him (Trump said on Truth Social that he was looking at "numerous people" who were interested in running against Tillis in a primary), he decided he didn't want to go for another term, and publicly blamed the president for his decision. Tillis, though, had officially started a campaign, and is a proven vote-getter in North Carolina, having defeated well-funded candidates in Kay Hagan & Cal Cunningham...there's no guarantee that his successor will be able to do the same, particularly given that while Trump won in 2024, Democrats like Josh Stein & Jeff Jackson were able to get split ticket support with terrible candidates down-ballot. The president is celebrating Tillis's exit right now, and I suspect a lot of MAGA crowds are...but I can guarantee the NRSC is panicking over the Pandora's Box this just opened. It's also worth noting that with Tillis leaving in the way he did, Democrats can praise him without worrying about his reelection chances (Stein & Jackson, for example, were quite complimentary of Tillis yesterday in a way they otherwise wouldn't have been), something they have done with other Republicans like John McCain & Mitt Romney in recent years to compare them favorably to Trump.
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| Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) |
Here's where I point something out-the North Carolina Senate race was a Tossup last week, and is a Tossup now. But it's a tossup where the Democrats now have more upside, and the question for the entire race still remains: what will Roy Cooper do? The 68-year-old former governor has never lost a statewide race in North Carolina despite having run in years like 2004 and 2016 when that was a challenge, and has been the preferred candidate for much of the cycle. We've talked about this a bit before, but both the NRSC and DSCC have struggled this cycle to recruit former governors, and Cooper has said he won't make an announcement until later this summer, but with Tillis out, getting Cooper would probably shift this from "Tossup" to "Slight Democrat" an advantage the DSCC, faced with the daunting task of picking up four seats with a rough map, can't really afford to cede. I've said it a few times now, but if Chuck Schumer & Kirsten Gillibrand can't get at least one of the two most sought-after governors (Janet Mills & Roy Cooper), their recruitments efforts this cycle must be deemed a failure regardless of the end results. With Tillis retiring, that becomes even more important.
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| RNC Chair Lara Trump (R-NC) |
That said, Tillis retiring is a gift to those who worry that Schumer & Gillibrand will be failures on that front (I'm still undecided if they will pull it off, but leaning toward no), as this race is now a tossup until the dust settles, even without Tillis or Cooper. Republicans will have a host of options. While former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson initially declined, it's possible that he might change his mind (he even tweeted something about this jokingly), though I doubt after his landslide loss that President Trump would want to give him a second shot. A much more interesting option would be the president's daughter-in-law, former RNC Chair Lara Trump. Ms. Trump spent much of the earlier part of this year aggressively trying to get the Senate seat that went to Ashley Moody in Florida, so running in North Carolina feels a bit gauche (but that'd just make her fit in at family picnics), and she'd be hard to beat in a primary if she ran, particularly since she'd likely only run with the president's approval. Other names like Reps. Pat Harrigan, Dan Bishop, Brad Knott, Addison McDowell, & Greg Murphy (a who's who of "who exactly?"), as well as state party Chair Michael Whatley, all could be in contention at this point, though I think Lara Trump is the most important name to watch from the onset.
The Democrats already have a top tier candidate running, even with Cooper waiting around, in Rep. Wiley Nickel (a one-term incumbent who was redistricted out of his seat last cycle and has been running here for a while). Nickel begins with a head start, but I doubt that he would get this race to himself if Cooper doesn't run. This is maybe the best shot a Democrat has at a Senate race in North Carolina since 2014, and people like Rep. Deborah Ross, Senate Minority Leader Sydney Batch, AG Jeff Jackson, & LG Rachel Hunt are all likely names to take a second glance here, most of them glossier than Nickel even with a head start. Jackson, in particular, is going to have to make a decision as arguably the next-in-line after Cooper (I'd been assuming he'd run against Sen. Budd in 2028), over whether or not to run for yet another office so quickly after a hard fought contest for Attorney General.
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| Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) |
Like I said, Tillis wasn't the only retirement this past week. Rep. Don Bacon previewed his formal retirement announcement (expected today), and the celebrating you're hearing is the DCCC getting pumped about a likely flip. Bacon is the House Republican who represents the bluest district in the Union, and the only Republican in the lower chamber who sits in a seat that Kamala Harris cleared 50%+ in during last year's election (for the record, Susan Collins also represents such a seat in the Senate). State Sen. John Cavanaugh (son of the only living Democrat in Nebraska to have served in the US House) was the frontrunner for the nomination prior to this announcement (he has endorsements already from former Sens. Bob Kerrey & Ben Nelson), and while I could see other Democrats in the state taking a look, I wouldn't be surprised if the field stays relatively geared toward Cavanaugh, especially with Dan Osborn running for Senate. Unlike Tillis's seat, this race is no longer a tossup. This is a blue seat, one vacated by the Republicans' best option, and the Democrats already have a star recruit...you don't beat those kinds of alignments in a 6th-year midterm unless the Democrats make a mistake...calling this seat a "Leans Dem" is not premature, and important, as the Democrats only need to pickup three seats to get the House majority next year.
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| Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
Tillis & Bacon both retiring within days of each other feels to me like a "the shoe is dropping moment." While both races could be explained in a vacuum (Tillis no longer wanting to deal with Trump is not a unique situation, but he's been targeted more publicly than most, Bacon has been looking at retirement for a while now), this reads to me like a party that does not think they are going to have a good midterm. There are other names at this point that I'm watching. Sen. Joni Ernst, coming off of her Grim Reaper tour, looks like a possible option to retire, but given that Tillis came largely out of nowhere, there are other names that would be worth mentioning. I was trying to think of the candidates who, like Tillis & Bacon, would hurt the Republicans the most (at this point I kind of think Dems would prefer to face Ernst). Obviously the #1 is Susan Collins, which would be a hosanna-in-the-heavens moment for the DSCC (even though a lot of Democrats, like me, would prefer to see her go down in an election rather than picking this seat up thanks to a retirement if only for the catharsis), but people like Sen. Dan Sullivan & Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick retiring would dramatically upend their races, particularly with Trump looking bored and like he wants to get involved in the minutia of primaries with loyalists in seats that might not hold them. But I do feel like the dam is bursting, and the Republicans aren't liking what they're headed into come 2026.
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