We Need to Talk About John Fetterman

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)

It is sometimes hard to understand noise when it comes to politics.  I write a lot about politics on this blog, and in particular what is happening in the world of the US Senate.  Since moving from having this blog be daily to having it be "occasionally" in 2025, I engage only in topics that feel huge (like retirements), or something (like our recent article about Emily's List) that I'm super passionate about discussing.  The conversation around Sen. John Fetterman's health and shift in policy position, though, is hard to discuss because, well, it's difficult to tell what is and isn't gossip.  However, it's gotten to the point where it feels like this major story should have an article devoted toward it (I want to get my thoughts into the world), and so here we are: let's talk about John Fetterman.

Sen. Fetterman's career in politics is fascinating, and increasingly similar to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's, though far more tragically so in the Pennsylvania pol's case.  Unlike Sinema (who grew up deeply poor), Fetterman grew up relatively affluent, the son of an insurance salesman, living in a rich suburb with wealthy, conservative parents, eventually attaining an Ivy League education.  Like Sinema, his early career included a stint as a teacher, and he got into politics relatively young, serving as Mayor of Braddock, and he gained a consistent track record as a liberal early in his career (at one point, believe it or not, Kyrsten Sinema was most noted for being a member of the Green Party and actively hating Joe Lieberman).  During his 2016 Senate primary, he endorsed Bernie Sanders, the only major candidate in the Senate primary to do so, and ran to Rep. Conor Lamb's left in the 2022 Senate primary, coasting to the nomination in part due to Sanders' 2016/20 supporters strongly backing him (Sanders would endorse Fetterman in the race).  He was seen, like Sanders, as a sometimes off-beat pol, with unusual sartorial choices, but one who is hell-bent on making a difference through liberal policy-making.

But like Sinema, since joining the Senate, his most noted characteristic has been moderation, particularly in the wake of Bob Casey's loss in 2024 to now-Sen. Dave McCormick (Casey is a noted friend, and seemed publicly to be positioned as a mentor to Fetterman).  Sinema's move always felt a little bit like she was doing so out of prudence, trying to capitalize on her state being very purple, and thinking that this was the only way she could hold office (and after a while, the only way she could seem to grab influence in the Senate away from a power-broker like Joe Manchin).  Fetterman, though, appears to be suffering something worse than political miscalculation.  

According to a damning report in New York Magazine, the senior senator from Pennsylvania's mental health was severely questioned.  The article is worth reading in its entirety if you are interested, but to sum up-current & former staffers, including some on the record (rare in Washington in relation to a still very powerful sitting US Senator that you wouldn't want to piss off), have questioned Fetterman's mental and physical health in the wake of a stroke in 2022, which the article indicates was more serious than what was originally shown to the public.  The article describes a paranoid man, one who may not be taking his medications, and is indulging in conspiratorial thinking.  His former Chief of Staff Adam Jentleson wrote to Walter Reed Medical about his concerns that Fetterman "won't be with us much longer."  The article talks about Fetterman's issues with self-harm, his reckless driving (staff say they won't ride with him in the car), and his obsession with Twitter & other social media making his issues with clinical depression worse.  The article also went in-depth talking about what appears to be fissures in Fetterman's marriage to wife Gisele (a celebrity in her own right, and beloved by a lot of Democratic circles even more so than the senator) growing out of Fetterman's shift rightward on issues like Israel, with the article seemingly making at least part of this feel like a battle over Fetterman's views between his wife and his conservative father.  A follow-up article from Politico described Fetterman's current state as feeling isolated, with major political players in the state like Reps. Mary Gay Scanlon, Chrissy Houlahan, & Summer Lee saying they have not been in contact with their current senator.

Questioning the public health of politicians is not new, and something that you need to take with a grain of salt.  In recent years, we've seen this regularly for older politicians, including presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, & Joe Biden, as well as Dianne Feinstein & Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  Sometimes this feels real (Trump & Feinstein, specifically, it's hard to deny) while other times (like Clinton) it was clearly meant to score political points.  The same week that Fetterman's article came out, another about former Rep. Yadira Caraveo's (who is running for her old seat in one of the most important House races on the map next year) struggles with mental health and mistreatment of staff (which felt almost interchangeable with Fetterman's) came out.  That Fetterman and Caraveo represent (or are trying to represent) crucial, majority-making seats in Congress should not be dismissed-these sorts of articles could be designed to hurt their political prospects, and help their opponents.

But with Fetterman...I believe there's fire with the smoke.  The New York Magazine article not getting rebuked strongly from the rest of the Pennsylvania delegation feels like a telltale sign, but more so does some of his public behavior.  He's missed more votes than any senator in recent memory, rivaling JD Vance (who was Vice President-Elect at the time), and was caught on video fighting with an airline pilot about wearing his seat belt.  This aligns with staffer concerns about his struggle to be interested in the job, and indulging in paranoid and conspiratorial behaviors (including in a meeting with teachers' union representatives), which would be in-line with someone who was not recovering properly from a stroke.  My personal thoughts are that Fetterman appears to be going through, at best, a deep crisis in his life (whether that's health-driven, driven by issues in his marriage, or just someone who doesn't understand the insane public scrutiny of being a member of Congress in a world with a 24/7 news cycle), and this is resulting in him not being able to handle the duties of a US Senator.  It also is not lost on me that Fetterman seems to be positioning himself for a party switch.  Despite a long history as a pretty consistent Democrat (far more so than Sinema or Manchin, who ultimately never joined the GOP), his public statements since Bob Casey's loss, and the fact that his biggest public defenders right now are his fellow Republicans like Dave McCormick, Tom Cotton, & Chuck Grassley, reads to me like someone whom Sen. Thune is courting to jump across the aisle (even if that's a long shot given much of Fetterman's political history).

Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA)

Personally, I think Fetterman retiring early wouldn't be the worst thing.  His seat would be filled by Gov. Shapiro, so there'd be no risk of the seat flipping to a Republican in that regard, and we'd have a special election in the fall of November 2025 for the last three years of Fetterman's term where the Democrats would be favored.  This isn't ideal in terms of long-term planning for the seat.  In a perfect world, we'd get someone young into the race who could use this as a launchpad into a national political career, but Gov. Shapiro would feel pressured to pick someone loyal to him (i.e. someone like LG Austin Davis) or someone with a more established history in the state (like former Sen. Bob Casey) who could quickly assemble a campaign in the wake of a surprise exit from office.  Casey would make the most sense, but also at 65 is not a rising star...it's also not remotely old enough to assume Casey wouldn't try again in 2028 to stay in the Senate given he just ran for a seat that would've kept him in office until 2030.

The more likely scenario is that Fetterman spends much of the next three years being a perpetual pain in the ass for Democrats, then either running as an independent or, like Sinema, retiring after one term (I do think the party switch is a real possibility, one that would totally destroy any chance the Democrats have of taking the majority in 2026, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario-I think him staying a pain who caucuses with the Democrats like Sinema is likelier).  If Fetterman runs again as a Democrat, I don't think he wins a primary-the damage to his reputation with Democratic voters is too severe.  Rep. Conor Lamb, who got second place to Fetterman in 2022, has become much more vocal as a "now to Fetterman's left" alternative that even figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are warming toward, and I think, were he to run, he'd be the best candidate to beat Fetterman as he's the only one who might clear the field (and given he's only 40-years-old, Lamb would be able to recover from his 2022 loss to become a serious political force in the 2030's and even 2040's were he to take the general).

That is honestly where I think this will end.  But this feels like a volatile situation, and Fetterman comes across like an unwell man at this point.  History teaches me that a man in his situation either gets defenders from his party quickly or his staffers (and his family) right the ship by proving that these reports are wrong.  That so far none of that is happening feels like the biggest red flag in this entire conversation.