Well, it's Tuesday, and while we didn't have a primary last night, we did of course have a major election in Wisconsin (arguably the most important election this year, give or take the gubernatorial race in Virginia in November). Given the turnout, a lot of Wisconsin voters thought so too, so let's dive into our Wednesday Morning Quarterbacking with my 5 thoughts on last night's race.
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| Judge Susan Crawford |
As you can imagine, the big headline last night was a major win for the Democrats, as Judge Susan Crawford held the blue majority in the Supreme Court while Democrats also reelected State Superintendent Jill Underly. Crawford's win had been telegraphed if you looked at polling, and she pulled off an impressive victory (vote margins are still being ironed out, but as of this morning she was up by 10-points with 95% reported). Wisconsin was the closest state in the nation this past November, with Donald Trump winning the state by less-than a point (the only state in the nation to be decided by such a thin margin), and so this is a rebuke of Donald Trump as much as it is a win for the Democrats. Though this is a hold for the Democrats, it also solidifies a majority that the party achieved a few years ago after almost a decade of trying to regain the majority on the Court.
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| Judge Rebecca Bradley |
That majority is much stronger right now, and Republicans are about to have a mess in the Supreme Court. It's hard to put into words how much the GOP needed a win here, but I'll give it a shot. Wisconsin Supreme Court justices serve 10-year terms, but because there's 7 of them they are up most years, and those elections always take place in the Spring. Though they are technically non-partisan, they are essentially D vs. R races at the end of the day. The next Democrat up is Rebecca Dallet in 2028, but between then and now Republican incumbents Rebecca Bradley (in 2026) and Annette Ziegler (in 2027) will be up for reelection, and then again in 2029 Brian Hagedorn (the final Republican on the Court) is up for reelection. In order to get a majority in 2028, the Republicans will need to win three consecutive elections, and to extend it, they'll need to win a fourth in 2029. That's difficult math, particularly given that Bradley, specifically, will be up during a Trump midterm year (historically good for the Democrats), and is the most conservative member of the Court. Incumbent justices almost always win, but Bradley would be the best way to test that given she's the biggest lightning rod on the Court (and it's possible we're in an era where these types of races function in the same way as partisan ones). If the Democrats beat Bradley, the Republicans won't have a shot at getting a majority unless they win every race for the rest of the decade (Jill Karofsky is up in 2030, and they'd need to beat her as well). This becomes a big deal because the Supreme Court has a big say in redistricting the past 20 years, and the state legislature (which was largely gerrymandered for much of the 2010's and until Janet Protasiewicz's win in 2023) will be redrawn with a much more liberal Court, potentially helping Democrats gain control beyond just the Court.
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| Rep. Derrick van Orden (R-WI) |
When the Democrats won the Supreme Court last cycle (in 2023) they redrew the state legislative seats, but it did not appear that they had time or the bandwidth to redraw the congressional seats (to be fair, given the veto override threat to Gov. Evers, redrawing the state legislature was more important, though given how close the House ended up, it's probable that had they redrawn the congressional map, the House would be 218R-217D right now). But now, that math has changed. Wisconsin is a difficult state to draw fairly, as it should have a 4R-4D congressional delegation, but most of the state's Democrats live in Milwaukee or Madison, meaning that you usually end up with 6R-2D, and those two Democratic districts are deep blue. But if you wanted to, you could draw a map where Milwaukee & Madison are split in half, and have four relatively safe Harris seats. This might not ultimately impact the House math in a fair way (similar to 2024 where NC GOP outdid Dems in Alabama & Louisiana finally getting fair maps, the Ohio GOP is certain to redraw, potentially imperiling Marcy Kaptur, Emilia Sykes and/or Greg Landsmann, so best bet it's probably a draw), but this would provide a counter as Ohio is near certain to happen. Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick van Orden seem the likeliest options given van Orden nearly lost already in 2024, and Steil is in the a seat bordering Milwaukee (which hosts a county, Racine, that Crawford managed to flip last cycle despite Kamala Harris losing it by 6-points in 2024). I would imagine it'll be a top House Dems priority in the coming months to get new maps here.
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| Elon Musk |
Elon Musk has been in the headlines behind a lot of the Trump administration's decisions over the past few weeks while Donald Trump has been off harassing the Kennedy Center & putting tariffs on penguins, and he has been behind-the-scenes in Wisconsin. Musk donated $20 million to getting Republican Brad Schimel a victory, including giving away $1 million prizes to two GOP voters which feels like it violated a lot of ethics laws (and likely became grounds for a future lawsuit), and it didn't do him a lick of good. Musk & Trump have both been sending signals that the billionaire could be leaving his perch in the White House soon (and certainly the stock market for Tesla could use less of a MAGA glare from Musk...though after today no one's stock is looking shiny). But yesterday proved that while Trump might still be an asset on the campaign trail, Musk certainly is not...which gives the famously duplicitous Trump a way to stab-in-the-back when he needs to (no one lasts forever in Trump's circle...the guy's on his third wife for a reason).
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| Rep-Elect Randy Fine (R-FL) |
Wisconsin was the headline last night, but it wasn't the only place where Republicans dramatically under-performed, as special elections to fill the seats left vacant by Matt Gaetz & Mike Waltz were also held, and they were perhaps even more brutal for the Republicans than Wisconsin was if you look at the numbers. In the 6th district, where Republican Randy Fine was admonished last night by President Trump for how badly he did, he under-ran Trump by 16 points, an enormous gap, but not nearly as bad as Jimmy Patronis in the 1st, where he under-ran Trump by 22-points (Patronis lost Escambia County, home to Pensacola, a county that hasn't given a majority of its votes to a Democratic presidential candidate since John F. Kennedy in 1960). It's worth noting that, with Rep. Elise Stefanik being forced to drop her bid to be UN Ambassador due to Trump's fears (which he said publicly) that her seat could go blue, that that risk was confirmed on Tuesday. Had the Republicans under-ran in NY-21 (Stefanik's district) by as much as Patronis did, they would've lost the seat (and given that Stefanik's seat borders Canada & is disproportionately impacted by tariffs, that seems plausible). The Republicans are now in a situation where seats that Trump won by 20-points are now at risk, an insane place to be given that if that uniformly happened, they'd have less than 150 seats in the next Congress compared to their current 220.
3 comments:
A wonderful evening all around!
Also, I'm thrilled that Judge Bradley is so upset at the results. You used the perfect photo of that sourpuss!
Patrick-that photo was chosen intentionally. lol
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