All right, we've had a little bit of a 2025 tradition on the blog when it comes to Senate retirements, and given Illinois Senator Dick Durbin joined the list yesterday, it's time for me to dive into another "5 Thoughts" article discussing all of the political moves now happening in the Land of Lincoln.
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| Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) |
Dick Durbin's retirement shouldn't come as a shock to anyone watching from home. Durbin, age 80, has been signaling pretty hard with his fundraising and some of his actions over his last term that this would be it for him. Durbin is one of the longest-serving current members of Congress. Elected to the House in 1982 (making him one of the last eight members of Congress currently serving to have been elected before I was born), he has served during eight presidential administrations, and been Senate Democrat #2 since 2005 (the longest tenure as Senate Whip in American history), though he was not able to take over the top spot in 2016 when Harry Reid retired. Despite a pretty consistently liberal voting record, Durbin has frustrated a number of Democrats (including yours truly) in recent years for sticking too closely to Senate decorum, specifically leaving dozens of judicial nominations open by not pushing harder during the Biden administration to overturn the blue slip process. Had he run again, it's almost certain that he would've had a primary challenger as a result of this (I would've backed them with a donation, truth be told), and I suspect that may be part of why a man who worked in politics since 1969 is finally giving it up.
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| Gov. JB Pritzker with LG Juliana Stratton |
The last truly open Senate seat in Illinois was in 2004, so a lot of people will be taking a look at this. The biggest name in Illinois politics right now, though, isn't Durbin, but Governor JB Pritzker. Pritzker is expected to seek a third term as governor (closing any paths for Democrats looking for a Plan B who want to avoid a crowded Senate primary), but he's definitely already indicated whom he wants to succeed Durbin: his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton. While there are House Democrats who will have more access to early money, the rumors are that Pritzker backs Stratton so much that he's willing to help bankroll her campaign. Pritzker, the heir to a hospitality fortune estimated to be worth over $3 billion, would easily be able to dwarf any number that other Democrats are going to achieve, but money isn't everything (just ask Carly Fiorina, Dave Trone, Kathaleen Wall, & Meg Whitman) and it's possible that Stratton won't connect with voters (while she's served alongside Pritzker in the low-key office of Lieutenant Governor for nearly 8 years, her only other electoral achievement is serving one term in the Illinois State House, hardly comparable to some of her potential competitors). But expect Stratton to get in, and for Pritzker to try his darndest to clear the field for her.
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| Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) |
Illinois politics is not shy on disgraced or failed Democratic politicians, but usually that involves a prison sentence. In the case of Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, though, it's an electoral defeat that haunts him. Giannoulias, at the age of just 34, was the Democratic nominee for US Senate in 2010, and expected to win the seat once held by Barack Obama. Giannoulias, though, marred by personal scandals involving his father's company Broadway Bank, and one of the worst environments imaginable to run in as a Democrat, lost the race by just over a point in one of the most embarrassing losses of the night. Giannoulias, now 49, clearly wanted a comeback when he ran for Secretary of State in 2022, and I assume will look heavily at this race, particularly with Pritzker unlikely to vacate his position in Springfield. Giannoulias will have a much tougher time in the primary than he did in 2010, but if he wins, he'll certainly win the general election, and not yet 50, could still have a long second act if he completes the connection this time.
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| Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) |
Illinois, arguably one of the most gerrymandered states in the country, is home to a lot of House Democrats, and it won't just be statewide office-holders seeking Durbin's seat. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has been saving up for this race for years, in fact, and already is sitting on a gargantuan $19 million fundraising coffer that can all be transferred to this race. I think my biggest issue with Krishnamoorthi is that he hasn't made as much of a name for himself in the House, and gives off the vibes of someone who can raise money but not deliver votes (that happens a lot with the House...look at Andy Barr's charisma drain campaign kickoff video for how you can be a member of the House and have no obvious star power for a Senate run). Rep. Robin Kelly is a better candidate, but she's also going to be 70 next year. She's been a "rising star" so long in Democratic politics that she essentially waited too long (she should've tried in 2016 against Mark Kirk) and I wonder if she'll have much juice to get past in an environment where Democrats are still smarting over Joe Biden waiting too long to admit he was too old to run. As a result, I think if there's a House member who succeeds Durbin it'll be Rep. Lauren Underwood. Just 38, Underwood was one of the giant-slayers of the 2018 blue midterm wave, ousting Rep. Randy Hultgren, and has hung on in the years since, albeit in a much bluer district after redistricting helped her in 2022. Underwood, truth-be-told, is the candidate I most want to take this seat (she'd have my vote if I lived in Illinois), and I suspect will have the grassroots due to her youth & position as a "rising star." Whether that's enough will remain to be seen, but 2004's Senate contest showed that Illinois is good at picking up on rising stars.
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| Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) |
Senator Durbin's announcement overshadowed the news that Rep. Jan Schakowsky intends to retire, though she'll make her official announcement in early May. Schakowsky was elected to the House in 1998 (beating future Governor JB Pritzker in the primary if you can believe the small world of politics), and has been an ardent liberal ever since, but she turned 80-years-old last month, and had become the most prominent figure in the movement to primary older members of the US House (one we talked about with our article last week on David Hogg). You'd think that Schakowsky's retirement might help political activist Kat Abughazaleh, who got into the race before Schakowsky retired, seemingly to pressure her to step aside (whether or not Abughazaleh actually influenced Schakowsky to retire is debatable-I personally think she was going to retire regardless-but Abughazaleh definitely can take credit for it now), would help the political activist in an open race...but I think it might be the opposite case. The biggest thing Abughazaleh had going for her was a cleared opponent field (do you want to vote for the incumbent running at an age most people have retired or not?), but with Schakowsky out of the race, I think it's likely that popular Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss not only gets into the race, but may well clear the establishment lane. Biss, just 47, will be impossible to call "too old" to run for the US House, and has a far stronger connection to this district than Abughazaleh has (he's also a political talent-an affable egghead persona much in the same vibe as Pete Buttigieg...similar to Underwood, he'd get my vote). Regardless, with Schakowsky gone, and potentially Underwood/Kelly/Krishnamoorthi all running for the Senate, expect a mountain of turnover in the Illinois House delegation next year.
2 comments:
It amazes me how you know so much about the politics of other states.
30 years of following politics. lol
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