Is Pete Buttigieg Making a Mistake?

Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-MI)

Last week former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-MI), who ran for president in 2020 (inexplicably beating multiple sitting US Senators to win the Iowa Caucuses), and then served as Secretary of Transportation during the Biden presidency, announced that he would forego a run for both the US Senate and Governorship of Michigan, both of which are now open during the 2026 midterms.  This was greeted by many, including yours truly, as a surprise.  Buttigieg's move to Michigan, despite what he said in the press (that he wanted to move closer to his husband's family), was always seen as a calculated move.  Buttigieg is a Democrat, and Indiana is a red state-moving to Michigan, a purple state with a long recent history of electing Democrats (despite going for Trump in 2024, every statewide office in the Wolverine State is blue), was a way for Buttigieg, who was criticized by many in his 2020 race for not having enough experience to be president, to gain elected experience and prove that he can translate his brand of polished, fact-based politics into a general election win in a crucial swing state.  That he wasn't invited is a surprise, and in my opinion (hence this article) needed some analysis.

To understand a bit about Buttigieg, we need to take a peek at his presidential loss in 2020.  Buttigieg took the country by storm as the antithesis of Donald Trump.  While Trump dealt with simplistic, oftentimes false arguments in his speeches, Buttigieg was engaging but always focused on results & the truth.  In many ways he more successfully navigated the "give me a plan" approach that other, more famous (at the start of the race) candidates like Amy Klobuchar & Elizabeth Warren attempted to base their campaigns upon.  But Buttigieg wasn't able to maintain his momentum, particularly given that he had virtually no cache with African-Americans, a huge voting bloc in Democratic Primaries, as they migrated to Joe Biden in South Carolina, and was out of the race before Super Tuesday, an early backer of Joe Biden (which paid off in a presidential cabinet position).

Buttigieg has done very little to calm those who worried that he lacked a broad base-of-support in 2020 in the remaining years.  He's noted for his steady appearance on cable news but has not done a significant amount of outreach to the African-American communities, which given the large Black vote around Detroit, was another reason I suspected he wanted to flex his muscles in the primary.  It's clear that he wants to run for president in 2028 and will go into that race with a larger name recognition than he did in 2020...but with the exact same deficits.  There are other likely candidates (Raphael Warnock, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris) who have stronger ties to Black voters and strong Black turnout in their previous elections, and unlike Buttigieg, they have a traditional launchpad to run for POTUS (which a low-level cabinet position is not).  Buttigieg, at only 43, has a lot of potential time to run for president coming ahead of him, but he can't really afford a second loss without being branded as a proper loser (ending his presidential ambitions forever).  There are candidates who have pulled off successful runs for president after multiple previous losses (Joe Biden being the most recent & obvious), but they did so with a lot more wins on a state-level than Buttigieg will have.  If he loses in 2028, he will do so with no safety net, and likely will be done with politics before he ever really had much significant power.

I think Buttigieg, if I was advising him, not running for the Senate is a mistake.  It looks to be a relatively good year for Democrats next year given economic and historical indicators, and being a US Senator would provide a significant back-up plan for Buttigieg.  He's the most famous person in the race, would raise the most money, and given Michigan doesn't have ranked-choice voting, in a multi-candidate race he'd leave the winner.  Not doing this is a pretty significant unforced error, one that will look more pronounced if/when he loses his next presidential bid...

...but it's almost certainly better for the Michigan Democratic Party, because they now have a chance to have a safer candidate run.  With Buttigieg out, it's looking like some combination of Rep. Haley Stevens, State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, & Rep. Hilary Scholten will run and become the nominee in 2026; McMorrow, specifically, seems almost certain to run at this point.  These are better candidates.  They don't come with the carpetbagger label that Buttigieg would be tagged with, as they've all represented Michigan in government for years, and they're more natural retail politicians with no obvious presidential dreams (though being a senator could change that).  Buttigieg probably would've won next year, but the other women I just listed have a better chance, and as someone who cares more about a Democrat winning than a specific candidate winning, this is the right outcome for me.  Buttigieg getting a second chance (like Chuck Schumer, Kamala Harris, & Joe Biden in recent years) is not more important than the party winning a key Senate seat, and I'm glad he's out of the race.  I'm just stunned he's given up what might've been his best real shot at a presidential bid (albeit one in 2032 or 2036) to buy into his own hype in 2028.