How Do You Solve a Problem Like Jared Golden?

Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME)

Yesterday we talked quite a bit about Senate Democrats, and how disappointed I was in Sen. Chuck Schumer's inability to handle the government shutdown bill.  Today, we're going to talk about one of the underwritten aspects of the budget battle this week involving Rep. Jared Golden of Maine.  While Sens. Jeanne Shaheen & Angus King both ultimately voted for the bill in the Senate (Shaheen recently announced her retirement, and it's difficult to see the 80-year-old King serving beyond his current term), the only Democrat in the House to vote for the bill was Jared Golden, the extremely rare true moderate left in Congress, and one who has a significant decision to make in the coming months about his political future.

Golden, unlike Shaheen & King, is quite young, only 42 which is basically infancy in Congress.  A handsome Marine Corps veteran, he was first elected to Congress during the 2018 Democratic wave, in large part due to Maine's ranked-choice voting.  The incumbent, Republican Bruce Poliquin, actually was ahead of Golden in the initial round of voting by slightly less than a percentage point, but because Golden got a disproportionate amount of the third party candidates' second choice ranking, he was ultimately declared the winner.  Since then Golden has carried the district, one that voted for Donald Trump three consecutive presidential cycles, by small but ultimately winning margins, including last cycle in a nailbiter (I predicted Golden would lose) against Austin Theriault.

Golden's position as one of just three incumbent Democrats who represent a district that Donald Trump won in both 2024 AND in 2020 (the others being Marie Gluesenkamp Perez & Marcy Kaptur) means that he oftentimes has to take views at-odds with his party.  In addition to supporting the most recent government funding bill, he did not support President Biden's student loan cancellation policy in 2023, he opposed the Bipartisan Background Checks Act in 2021 (one of only two Democrats to do so), and was the only Democrat to not support the Build Back Better Act in the House.  He also refused to endorse either presidential candidate in 2024.  In an era where down-ballot splitting is rare, Golden's ability to win such a red district as a Democrat is carved out largely by taking moderate stances, sometimes unpopular with his base.

But Golden is also in a strange position-a talented politician, he cannot hold this seat forever.  Maine's 2nd congressional district is not getting any bluer...indeed Donald Trump won it by 10-points in 2024, up 3-points from the previous cycle.  At 42, there's no way he can hold this for much longer, and I'd wager that he'd go into 2028 as the underdog (and would honestly be vulnerable even in 2026).  The future of the party is not in holding these types of rural seats, but instead in the suburbs.  The question for Golden is-what does he do next?  Does he keep running impressive races, helping out the DCCC as long as possible, knowing that he'll never be in the House at the age of 50 at this rate?  Or does he try for a promotion to a safer seat with the bluer statewide Maine electorate?

The signals from Golden's camp are that he wants to run for Governor.  Janet Mills is term-limited in 2026, and the Democrats need a new candidate.  The problem for Golden is that the moderate/conservative stances he's had to stake to win a red district are going to hurt him in a Democratic Primary.  Other leading Democrats in Maine like State Senate President Troy Jackson, House Speaker Ryan Facteau, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and House Speaker Hannah Pingree all have much more progressive positioning, and because there's no risk of splitting the progressive vote thanks to Maine's ranked-choice voting, there's no path for Golden to win as the moderate in the room.  Golden could still make it (he's well-respected as a talent in the state, and he's the best-known name o the bunch), but any progressive worth their salt could find a way to win over the blue Maine electorate (without alienating their general election electorate...Kamala Harris did win the state, after all) & turn them against Golden.  Golden could run as an independent, conceivably, but again-the ranked-choice voting that brought him to national prominence screws him over in a three-way race because the Democratic nominee would still ultimately be favored.

Golden with Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

I don't think Golden is a man without a future, though, but I do think that he'd have to shift gears to another race: the Senate contest.  Sen. Susan Collins is up for reelection in 2026, and has made her intentions to run for another term apparent (though I still think there's room for her to pull out if Trump's popularity continues to slide).  Golden has been reluctant to go against Collins in the past (similar to the 2024 presidential race, he refused to publicly back either Collins or Democrat Sara Gideon in the 2020 campaign), and one wonders if he wouldn't want to go after her at this point out of a sense of deference.  On the flip side, though, Collins doesn't have an opponent right now; Democrats spent a fortune trying to beat her in 2020 when she ultimately prevailed, and many Democrats think she's unbeatable as a result.  I think this is hooey-Collins has never faced a race like she might in 2026, where she will be the incumbent Republican senator with a Republican president in charge who is unpopular with the Maine electorate (that was not the case in 2002).  Collins has also gotten sloppy, backing people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, and as recently as yesterday voted in support of DOGE (it should be noted her fellow Republican Lisa Murkowski voted against the motion)...she seems to also think she's invincible, and is taking a posture well out of line with Maine voters.  She's tough, but she's beatable.

If Golden's smart, he can play this to his advantage.  As a non-incumbent in an open seat, Golden is never going to have an easy time winning a statewide race in Maine-there's always going to be someone to his left that can hurt him with a blue primary electorate.  But in a race against Collins, the math becomes different.  Golden is the best candidate to take on Collins, Collins is a candidate Democrats don't think they can beat, & Democrats know they can't afford to keep Collins in the Senate for six more years if they want a majority in the next six years...if he announced early enough, Democratic powerbrokers could step in (like Kirsten Gillibrand at the DSCC), throw their weight behind Golden, and clear the field for him even if he's more moderate than they'd like.  Assuming I'm right, and Collins is far more vulnerable than conventional wisdom dictates if Trump is unpopular, this would set up a situation where Golden, as a moderate, can get through the primary, and then get into a general election he has a decent chance of winning.  Once elected, he'd have room to moderate some positions with a bluer electorate, and as an incumbent senator, would be very hard to oust in the future even if he stayed center-of-the-road.  If I was Jared Golden's campaign advisor, I'd tell him to pursue this path-it might be the only way he is in Congress by 2028.