I have largely been off of social media today, so I'm doing a bit of catchup, but I wanted to talk a little bit about my home state of Minnesota, which had huge political news today with the retirement of Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith. As we frequently do on the blog for major announcements like this, I am doing a "5 Thoughts" article on the subject.
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| Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) |
Sen. Tina Smith's path to the Senate was unusual. Amidst the Al Franken scandal, she was tapped by Gov. Dayton (she was his lieutenant governor) to replace Franken when the latter resigned in 2018. Smith quickly won steady (but not Klobuchar-style) reelections in 2018 and 2020, and while she initially seemed to meld into the background of the Senate, eventually she seemed to stick-out a bit. As the only former employee of Planned Parenthood in the upper chamber, Smith has been ardently pro-choice, and honestly is one of the most consistently progressive voices in the chamber, even becoming one of the first senators to talk about expanding the Supreme Court. Franken's resignation, seven years after the fact, is still a source of consternation amongst DFL circles (if you've followed this blog long, you'll know that I was very supportive of him resigning at the time, and still think that was the right decision), but one of the realities that is rarely discussed when talking about Franken leaving office is that Smith might actually have been more progressive than Franken would've been in the remaining years of his term. She certainly kept the seat blue when Franken would've struggled to do in 2020 (when he certainly would've under-run Joe Biden). As one of her constituents, she's my favorite senator I've ever had, and though I'm glad she's leaving pragmatically (I think more Democrats in blue/purple districts should consider leaving in 2026 when it'll be a good midterm year so it'll be easier to hold in an open seat election-Jeanne Shaheen & Dick Durbin, this means you), she's the member of Congress I'm most consistently proud to claim I elected, and I'll miss her.
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| Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) |
Similar to the recent announcement by Sen. Gary Peters that he would retire from the Senate after two terms in Michigan, the first name on everyone's list is going to be the governor, in this case 2024 vice presidential nominee Tim Walz. While Gretchen Whitmer quickly ruled out a run in Michigan, Walz seemed open to the idea, though there are definitely indications that he might skip the race (more on that in a second). Walz would be the heavy favorite if he ran. While he lost last year's vice presidential race, he remains popular in Minnesota, and this would allow him to stay in office while avoiding running for the dreaded third term as governor, as Minnesota voters generally have turned governors who reach for it down (just ask Rudy Perpich). Walz's political future is hazy-unlike Whitmer, it's not clear if he still has national ambitions to run in 2028 for president, and it's also possible that even if he did, he'd be a footnote (failed vice presidential candidates like Joe Lieberman & John Edwards are good examples of how it's not a great launchpad for your future endeavors). But if he runs, Walz would be the heavy favorite for both the primary and the general.
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| Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) |
The best indication that Walz is not considering running, however, is that his lieutenant governor is already in the race. There are downsides to calling "first!" in a Senate primary, but the upsides are honestly high if you're a big enough name, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan already getting into the race like this is a way to sort of force a lot of other Democrats' hands. It's still not clear, for example, whether or not Walz is interested in a race at all (there were some indications that Walz was looking at retiring if he didn't win the vice presidency last year), so there are Democrats who could be interested in running for Governor. Though Walz & Flanagan's relationship was once really strong, (according to reports) Tim & Gwen Walz did not like how Flanagan handled herself during the 2024 election, and their relationship has soured to the point that they rarely do public events together. Still, I struggle to see a world where they both pursue this seat, particularly given that Flanagan could've had a clear shot at whatever race Walz didn't go for and will be a very big underdog against Walz in a Senate primary. If they are in a primary against each other, it would be a tabloid sensation, and also really foolish on Flanagan's part as she'd likely lose when she could've won another race.
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| Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) |
I'll be totally transparent in saying that, as a voter, if Walz doesn't run, I'm leaning toward Rep. Angie Craig or Secretary of State Steve Simon. Both out-performed their tickets, and both are in the same profile of Klobuchar & Smith: progressives who act like moderates (though one could make the argument that Craig is an actual moderate, at least more so than Smith or Simon) but are generally loyal to the party. The Minnesota Senate race will start out, in my opinion as Likely Democrat, and given her public feud with Walz, I do wonder if Flanagan might be a risky bet right now, though I do also think she'd be the favorite if she got the nomination.
There are a few names, though, that would struggle on the DFL bench. Despite having a solid up-ballot lead for Walz & Simon, State Auditor Julie Blaha and Attorney General Keith Ellison both nearly lost their races, and honestly I think would pose a serious risk of losing this seat if they were the nominees. The same could be said for Rep. Ilhan Omar, who has publicly indicated she's looking at a bid. Omar has the worst under-performance of the Harris ticket of any incumbent Democrat in Congress...and that's after having the worst under-performance of Joe Biden. Were she to run, she'd almost certainly lose the primary, and honestly it'd be a godsend for DFL-ers who are tired of her in the 5th district (which is ultimately why I don't think she will, as I think she'll be able to hold the 5th again in 2026 in the primary even after the falls of Cori Bush & Jamaal Bowman last cycle).
The one name I worry most about is Franken's. Franken currently lives in New York City (not Minnesota), but remains popular with the progressive base (just look on social media right now and you'll see many calls for him to be the nominee). I think (absent Walz) he'd be the frontrunner for the nomination...but would lose the general election. The long assumption amongst his acolytes is that there was nothing more to the accusations in 2018 (which still feels like a stretch...a risk that's not worth taking), and having him run would mean that Democrats would have to stake a controversial Senate nominee while they attempt to make gains elsewhere. It is not worth it, and I pray that Franken will avoid the race.
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| Rep. Pete Stauber (R-MN) |
While the Democrats have a wide bench (even if some aren't worth their time for this race), there will be a Republican in the race, and if Franken or Omar or Ellison or Blaha is their opponent...they would be taken seriously. Who that person is is a genuine question. Rep. Tom Emmer is already out of the race (he likely would've gotten right of first refusal), so my eyes are now on Rep. Pete Stauber, who picked up this seat in 2018 one of the only Republicans to flip a seat red that cycle, who ruled out a gubernatorial race, but might be interested in running here. Stauber is also the only major name that might be considered A-List in the same vein as Walz, Flanagan, Craig, & Simon (you could claim Brad Finstad or Michelle Fischbach are as well, but neither seems to be signaling an interest). State Sens. Michelle Benson & Paul Gazelka, NBA player Royce White, & State Sen. Scott Jensen would all be potential candidates...they also all lost their last statewide bids. State Rep. Kristin Robbins would be an interesting choice, but she's also the rare suburban Republican in the State House...which would mean her seat would be potentially gettable as the DFL tries to win back sole control over the House next year.
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