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| America Ferrera at last year's Oscars |
So why am I back? Well, for starters I have missed this terribly. This was something I loved doing every day of my life for 12 years, and it's been hard to have ideas and not put them on the blog. I quit because I didn't have time for it and time to do other things in my life I wanted to accomplish in the back half of my life after turning 40 last year (think of part of this quitting as a self-identified midlife crisis). Secondly, I am going to start creative writing a novel on Sunday (and working on it regularly after that), and I am genuinely terrified of whether or not I can do this. After two months completely off from writing, consider this a warm-up exercise.
And third, and most importantly-there were parts of my life on this blog that were traditions I've done for so many years that I couldn't help but want to return to them...to do without would feel like not putting up a Christmas tree or not giving away candy on Halloween. Most of them happen in January, and so I'm going to do five articles over the next week and then return to my hibernation. I am now prepared to say these won't be the only blog articles I'll write (I intend to return on occasion once this band-aid has been ripped off-my brother, who is my most ardent reader & one of the main reasons I kept writing TMROJ for so long, encouraged me, as well as specifically requested today's article as part of a brief sojourn back into the blog), but it is the only ones I'm promising. This will never return to a daily blog, and I also will not vow to maintain a balance of movies, politics, and other thoughts (quite frankly, after the Trump victory in November, I don't know that I have the stomach for politics outside of an academic setting, anymore), but I will occasionally sneak on here if it's something I can't help but write.
All that said, we're going to do five articles over the coming days before I feel (hopefully more confident) returning to creative writing, and they will all be long-time series we've done before (three movie-related, one book-related, and one related to politics) as we head into next Friday's Oscar nominations announcement. Today's is going to be our annual "No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!" article, where I talk about a weird phenomenon with the Oscars. Despite an increasing stagnation in terms of the nominations (there was far more variety in the 1980's between the "precursors" and the Academy Awards), since 2006 (and most years before that) every single year we've had at least one actor who did not receive a nomination for a Golden Globe or a SAG Award that still won an Academy Award nomination. Yesterday we got our 2024 SAG nominations, and so it is time. Here's a sampling from the past 10 years of people who pulled off this achievement:
2023: America Ferrera
2022: Brian Tyree Henry, Andrea Riseborough, Judd Hirsch, & Paul Mescal
2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley
2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
Most of these nominations stem from two camps. One camp is former nominees (like Penelope Cruz in 2021) who are on the Academy's radar already because (as a former nominee) they like them, and so they're able to work the Acting Branch more easily & get their showcase work in front of the Oscars. The second is someone who (like America Ferrara last year or Jessie Buckley in 2021), is a prominent supporting player in a movie they're already seeing, either a major Best Picture contender or someone who is in a film sure to be nominated for an acting nomination.
I worry every year that this trend will end, and indeed, it looks likelier than most this year. Not only are we in our second year of the Globes having six nominees in each category (which is stupid-you already have Comedy vs. Drama...why do you need even more actors nominated?), but most of the fields we've heard a lot of the names already. Supporting Actress, for example, had a pretty robust difference between the Globes & the SAG Awards (only Ariana Grande & Zoe Saldana got in for both), making some names that I had earmarked for this list (like Jamie Lee Curtis in The Last Showgirl) null-and-void. With all of that preamble done, here are the 10 contenders I think are most plausible to score with Oscar despite the Globes & SAG Awards ignoring them.
Honorable Mention: This list is lacking quite a bit already, thanks to so many already-mentioned contenders, and honestly as Oscar punditry becomes more of a polished industry (where they seem to not value surprises), you see less creativity from Oscar voters who just see the SAG nominations and say "sure, that's about right." A few names that I think are worth mentioning are standouts in films that aren't really getting much Oscar love such as Bill Skarsgard (Nosferatu), Joan Chen (Didi), or former nominees Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson), & Paul Mescal (Gladiator II). There's also the possibility that someone from a Best Picture nominee sneaks in (Jonathan Bailey, who like Curtis I had earmarked for this list until he got a SAG nomination, would've been a good example of this). John Lithgow & Sergio Castellito (Conclave), Michelle Yeoh & Jeff Goldblum (Wicked), and Vache Tovmasyan (Anora) are all names that might be on a few ballots if you really love those movies. But if there's a new name (and like I said above I do wonder if there will be one), it'll more likely be one of the below ten.
For Him: Pearson's role in A Different Man is apparently a scene-stealer (I am doing relatively well with keeping up with 2024, but have not caught this movie yet), and Supporting Actor has the biggest opening, in my opinion, for a surprise given how certain Kieran Culkin is to win the Oscar (half of this Top 10 is geared toward Supporting Actor for a reason). If Stan is in, and he's in the running, it's hard not to see people also adding in Pearson in supporting.
Against Him: Is Stan going to make it? Sebastian Stan probably would have a better shot at Best Actor if he wasn't splitting the vote with himself (he's also in the running for The Apprentice), and with the Best Actor race looking increasingly locked into the same five names, it has to be noted that one of those names is not Stan despite his recent Golden Globe win.
For Him: O'Connor is one of those up-and-coming actors who is inevitably (at some point) going to be nominated for an Oscar. Challengers recently did well at the Golden Globes, getting nominated for Best Picture & Actress, and winning Best Score, and has its champions who will likely include it on their Best Picture ballot even if it's not an obvious Top 10 contender. O'Connor would probably be a decent contender to get nominated given that combination (it worked for someone like Brian Tyree Henry in recent years who had the aura of "future Oscar nominee" and the Academy just decided to go for it for a little seen picture in Breakaway).
Against Him: The problem for O'Connor is similar to Stan, except instead of two films, he's competing in two categories. O'Connor is campaigning for supporting, even though he's clearly one of the films leads (Mike Faist probably should've been campaigned solo for supporting as he has a smaller part in the film), and with a low-key campaign, it's possible people won't be consistent in giving him a nomination in the same category, cutting down on his already smallish chances.
For Her: Ronan is one of the most recognized young actresses by Oscar, having already accrued four nominations before she turned thirty. This year she has two showy contenders in Blitz and The Outrun, and unlike Sebastian Stan, there's no category confusion here-though she's a prominent part of Blitz, she's plausibly supporting in it (I wouldn't even call that campaign fraud as it's her son in the film that is the more notable lead), and she's at the main in The Outrun. Despite neither film being a major player in other categories, a four-time nominee should be able to get into the conversation on her own.
Against Her: I think Ronan's biggest problem appears to be that no one is really interested in her this year. Both of these are showy, campaigned roles, but a lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination makes me think that people aren't seeing this or she isn't clicking with voters. This happens on occasion where former favorites fall out-of-favor or just have an off-year...is that happening to Ronan?
For Her: Fanning is part of an acting family, and Oscar is weirdly kind to acting families (it's a town run on nepotism) when it comes to nominations-neither Elle nor Dakota have ever been nominated for an Academy Award, and this is the first really obvious opportunity to do so since Dakota just missed for 2001's I Am Sam. Fanning is also playing one of Oscar's favorite roles (the long-neglected girlfriend of the Best Actor-assured lead), which could help. The DGA nomination for A Complete Unknown proves that this is a movie the industry is enjoying.
Against Her: The biggest thing against Fanning is her costar Monica Barbaro. Barbaro was one of the surprise contenders yesterday for the SAG Awards. I had, in advance of the SAG Awards, assumed that one of the A Complete Unknown supporting actresses was being underestimated, and if neither made it with SAG, they probably would've been combined to be #1 or #2 on this list. But with Barbaro already name-checked, Oscar voters could get lazy and assume she's the only contender from her movie, hurting Fanning.
For Her: Ellis-Taylor is a former nominee (always helps) and is the showiest/most-cited role in a late-breaking Best Picture nominee. That's usually one of the best signs for getting No Globe/No SAG, getting into a movie that is having its moment too late for the Globes & SAG nominations to catch it (keep in mind that Oscar voters tend to vote very close to nominations announcement, oftentimes after both Globe & SAG nominations have already been announced). If Nickel Boys is one of the final screeners, she will be fresh-in-mind.
Against Her: I do wonder about how strong, exactly, Nickel Boys support is. Most people are putting this in their Best Picture Top 10's (and it did get a Globe citation for Best Picture), but right now it has no real conversation other than "it's good-you'll like it" (it's not an obvious contender for Best Director or for actually winning Best Picture, for example). How much will people really go for it?
For Him: This list is ranked with #1 being the likeliest, and at this point we're shifting from "could happen" to "COULD happen" and I think maybe the most obvious "duh, of course!" contender from this list if it happens would be Dennis Quaid in The Substance. The reception at the Globes to The Substance was resounding-they loved the comedy bit between Demi Moore & Margaret Qualley (which you'll only understand if you've seen the film), and Moore solidified her position as the one-to-beat in Best Actress. Quaid is a longtime Hollywood vet who has never been nominated for an Oscar (which many expected him to for 2002's Far from Heaven, and as we discussed, I thought he should've been). He has a showy, attention-grabbing role in this movie...could this be his time?
Against Him: Quaid's politics might get in the way here. Openly Republican, Quaid spent a chunk of the fall campaigning for Donald Trump, which while he may have won the presidential election, did not win the acting branch of the Academy. Will Oscar want to go there?
For Him: Maclin's a unique situation of an actor who most expected to not be on this list because he was dominating the year. Sing Sing is a heavy contender for Best Picture, and if this movie is a favorite of yours for that category, it's hard not to picture Maclin on your ballot-he's the emotional center of the picture, and essential to the acting duet with Colman Domingo.
Against Him: If he wasn't going to get in with SAG, specifically, one wonders if people care that much. Oscar has a terrible attention span, and Sing Sing opened in the spring. It's a movie that it's possible people forgot about, and are just name-checking for Picture & Actor because that's where it's scoring in precursors. Maclin, unlike Colman Domingo, is not a former Oscar nominee & is a name you have to learn...are they not learning it long enough to put him on their ballots?
For Her: Paz is honestly better-positioned than you'd think. Though her costars are getting most of the Emilia Perez love, Paz co-won the Cannes Best Actress prize with Saldana, Gascon, & Gomez, and was also longlisted for the BAFTA. She's arguably the most grounded of the four performers in the film, and coming late into the movie, is maybe the heart of the picture? There is a lot of love for this movie, which could easily take Best Picture at this rate...surprise acting nominations happen all the time for Best Picture frontrunners.
Against Her: Gomez & Saldana are already big names in this category, and honestly I do wonder how devoted Perez voters will be after already listing three women for the movie. Also, if you're a detractor of the film (which I am), you're not going to want to give it any love even if you think Paz is the best part of the picture.
For Her: Best Actress seems to have come down to four names (Gascon, Erivo, Moore, & Madison) that are all expected-but-not-guaranteed (none of them, even Moore, are set-in-stone though I'll be predicting all four in my final predictions next week); a surprise is more-likely than people are considering (it's not rock solid like Best Actor) but we have leaders for four slots. The fifth slot has a lot of options, but while some have scored in precursors (Kate Winslet, Pamela Anderson, Nicole Kidman), I think it's probably down to either Fernanda Torres or Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Torres took the Globe, but Jean-Baptiste has clobbered with critics prizes, taking NYFCC, LAFCA, & the National Society of Film Critics, something that generally guarantees an Oscar nomination. She's also a former nominee, and her film is opening late but given Mike Leigh's reputation with the Academy, is the kind of film that could make it to the top of the pile.
Against Her: The film doesn't have heat in many other categories, and longtime Oscar watchers will remember a different actress (Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky) who dominated critics prizes but couldn't get in for a Mike Leigh movie. Could history be repeating?
For Him: He has everything. Showy role in a Best Picture frontrunner? Check. Longtime supporting actor who has worked with everyone? Check. Former nominee so the Oscars already have gone there? Check! Tucci also doesn't have internal competition like Fanning or Paz, as the only other actors in Conclave with heat are in other categories. Tucci is also pimping this film hard, having showed up for the Golden Globes even without a nomination to support the film-people in the industry notice that.
Against Him: On paper, honestly nothing. Tucci's biggest concern is he hasn't already been a part of the conversation as he's clearly a logical nominee. Sometimes obvious contenders just don't click, but in keeping with the tradition of this article, I'll probably predict either he or Jean-Baptiste when I finally check in next week as both are very logical last-minute decisions by Oscar.
1 comment:
You were definitely missed, and I'm so glad you are back (even if it's only temporary). And a book? Color me intrigued!
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