The Democratic Primary Season That Wasn't

Rep. Rob Menendez (D-NJ)

Rep. Rob Menendez (D-NJ) had not had a good primary season.  His father, Sen. Bob Menendez (I-NJ) had been indicted on corruption charges, and is currently running for the Senate as an independent, and literally has approval ratings in the single digits.  The younger Menendez had lost access to the famed "county line" ballot structure in the Garden State, which would've given him an advantage in a primary in terms of helping instruct voter preferences.  Menendez faced a seemingly serious challenger in Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla, and polling showed a tight race between the two.

But then last night, Rob Menendez won his primary, which is the equivalent in his Biden +43 district of reelection.  There were a couple of reasons for this.  Bhalla ran a bad campaign-he wasn't even on the air until the day before the election, and it's not clear that he was up for the task of taking on an incumbent, as even a damaged one you need to basically run a perfect campaign to best in a primary.  Menendez was definitely vulnerable, no doubt, but his win not only cements a second term in office for him, but also makes it almost impossible to see him losing in the future.  By the time the 2026 primaries roll around, his father will be an asterisk in politics (and possibly be in jail), and unless the younger Menendez has a similar scandal (which there's no indication he does), it's hard to see how another candidate will be able to go after him given the younger Menendez is generally quite progressive.

Menendez's close victory indicates something else that we have seen all season-close primary elections for incumbents...but ones they always win.  Last night, Menendez wasn't the only incumbent to have something of a scare.  Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) had a weirdly close election against a local advertising executive David Pautsch; when the vote is finally counted, she'll be lucky to have 55% of the vote despite Pautsch having virtually no money spent.  In fact, so far this year the only incumbent member of Congress to lose in a primary is Rep. Jerry Carl, who lose to his fellow congressman Barry Moore in Alabama after some mid-decade redistricting.

For the Republicans, this is unlikely to continue.  Republicans have continually seen close reelections this cycle (Reps. Mike Simpson & Tony Gonzales both came close to losses), and they have some obvious candidates who could lose in their upcoming reelections.  The most likely is Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) who has both Donald Trump & Kevin McCarthy against him in his reelection, running against State Sen. John McGuire.  I honestly would say that McGuire is the favorite at this point in that race.  Republicans also have the unusual scenario of Rep. Lauren Boebert, who is running not as an incumbent but as a sitting congresswoman for the 4th congressional district in Colorado.  I still think Boebert has a slight edge, but it's an under-polled race so I don't have a lot of confidence in that guess.  And in Washington, there's the very real possibility that Rep. Dan Newhouse (one of only two sitting House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump for his involvement with the January 6th terrorist attacks) will lose to a challenge from his right by Tiffany Smiley.

But the bigger question for me is around the Democrats.  Menendez was one of the best chances they had of defeating an incumbent, and they lost another of theirs this week when State Sen. Adam Hollier was unable to make the ballot in Michigan's 13th congressional district, leaving Rep. Shri Thanedar an easier path to victory.  There are competitive primaries on the calendar in theory, probably the two most important being Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), both of whom would be vulnerable and surprise House incumbents losing happens on occasion (lower voter turnout lowers the threshold if the incumbent is caught unaware), but I'll be honest-I don't know that there's a race on here similar to Newhouse or Good's where it's expected an incumbent House Democrat will lose a primary.

This would be the first time since 1998 that this has happened, and I'll be honest-I don't think it's super healthy for the party.  Incumbents needing to mind their base is something that has become downright toxic on the right, but on the left, it has frequently been used for good.  Superstars like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Beto O'Rourke have come through defeating incumbents.  We have had incumbents like Dan Lipinski who was too conservative for his blue district, lose to more progressive challengers.  Reps. Corrine Brown & Chaka Fattah both faced criminal charges and were ousted by voters who didn't want to be associated with such scandal.

There are incumbents where it's worth questioning whether or not they're right for office this year.  Menendez, despite not having any involvement with his father's criminal activities, was the only member of the New Jersey delegation unable to condemn his father (which shows the problem with nepotism in politics...but it's also a real reason to think he should've lost).  Rep. David Scott in Georgia is 78-years-old, relatively moderate for a blue district, and has had multiple stories leak about him not being in good enough health to hold office (shades of Dianne Feinstein)-this would've been a good time for him to exit.  Cori Bush is under investigation by the Justice Department, Jamaal Bowman was recently censured for pulling a fire alarm in the Capitol, and Shri Thanedar has received criticism for his inappropriate use of taxpayer money.  I'll be honest-these are incumbents the Democrats should've seriously questioned whether they wanted in their next House majority.  If they make it through, and Democrats start having issues with them in the next Congress...this lazy primary season is going to look like a missed opportunity.