So we're going to do one of our "five thoughts" articles about this, though we're not calling it that because I like the provocative title here and don't want to impede it with more words. Let's dive in on what this could/will mean.
 |
| Former President and Convicted Felon Donald Trump (R-FL) |
There is inevitably going to be some moronic talking head on a cable news channel who will offer a contrarian viewpoint on this, so I want to start off with: this is really, really, really bad for Donald Trump. Easily one of the worst days of his political career, and this is a man who lost a presidential election and was impeached (twice).
A lot of the conversation headed into this has been "it won't matter-his supporters will support him no matter what" which has always been both true and stupid (sometimes those adjectives overlap). MAGA hardcore supporters, yes, are going to double down now. Trump has become a cause, and they are increasingly in a situation where Trump winning in November is the only way he stays out of jail (more on that in a second). But MAGA was never how he was going to win-if they were enough, he'd still be president. Instead, it was the small-but-mighty coalition of voters that got Joe Biden a victory where Hillary Clinton failed: moderate Republicans (think people like Jeff Flake & Cindy McCain), 2016 third party voters who didn't want to make the same mistake twice, and disinterested voters who turned out in 2020 while they skipped 2016 (also, all of the Hillary voters-let's not forget the true fighters who never fell for the cause in the first place). That is where victory lies, and polling has shown that that coalition wasn't strong for Biden in 2024. This might not change that, but it does make it harder for those voters to get out for Trump...and without those voters, his race against Biden becomes harder, potentially unwinnable.
The reality is that we don't know what it's like for a convicted felon to run as a major party presidential candidate, because it's never happened before. Anyone claiming this doesn't matter spends too much watching cable news, or is too eager to understand the ending to a story that doesn't have an ending yet. Whether this will impact the November election in a meaningful way we'll see in public polling and in donations in the coming months (note I said months-in the next 48 hours, I would imagine the Trump campaign team makes a fortune in donations...all of which will go to his legal bills, but still will provide a rare positive talking point for his campaign to trumpet). But what I will say, unequivocally, is this doesn't help Donald Trump, and almost certainly hurts his presidential campaign. And also, well, his life. He's a 78-year-old man who faces the very real prospect of going to jail in a few weeks-that's gotta be terrifying for a guy who has never had to face serious consequences despite a lifetime of debauchery and mistakes.
 |
| Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) |
Republicans are also going to struggle to run on this. Perhaps the quirkiest thing about polling right now is that Trump has consistently outrun Republicans down-ballot due to public antipathy to President Biden but not to the Democratic Party as a whole. It's hard to see how this helps that (if anything, it risks Trump losing ground rather than down-ballot gaining), but it also means that Republicans no longer get to deal with a hypothetical. They have to run with a convicted felon as their nominee, and risk alienating either swing voters (which those in blue/purple districts need to win) or their base (which, again, they need to win).
The reactions so far are expected. Republicans like House Speaker Mike Johnson & Senator Marco Rubio actively disparaged the decision, calling it a "shameful day in American history" and blamed Democrats. It's worth noting this a damned lie-neither Joe Biden nor Alvin Bragg nor Leititia James convicted Donald Trump-a jury of 12 anonymous citizens did, like the Constitution instructed, so if anything this is pretty much exactly what the legal system intended to happen. But this appears to be the tactic-blaming Biden for something he didn't have anything to do with, and hope that people buy it. The problem is, outside of his base, I don't think they will. It's pretty clear that Trump was guilty, and with a conviction, it's going to be hard to move a majority of Americans away from thinking Trump is a felon before November.
Two specific takes I want to talk about here, because one is a sign of how this is going to be a struggle for Republicans who go away from the "miscarriage of justice" line (and one because it's funny). The first is from former Governor Larry Hogan, the current Republican nominee for the open Senate seat in Maryland. Hogan has openly rejected Trump's candidacy, and said "Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process." This is pretty innocuous (and indistinguishable from some Democratic lawmakers' statements), but the reactions to this was overwhelmingly negative from Republicans on social media, who called Hogan a traitor. Twitter is not indicative of real life (thank goodness), but this does an underline a problem for Republicans like Hogan, who needs to win a bunch of blue voters to win...but also needs universal MAGA support. Donald Trump doesn't care if Larry Hogan wins, all he demands is loyalty, and his conviction puts Hogan in an impossible situation that will significantly decrease his chances of pulling off a victory in his Senate race. That underscores the problem here-Trump is hurting some of his party's top prospects for Congress, and the longer this drags out, the more candidates like Hogan there will be who feel the brunt of it.
The other statement I want to point out is a comment from Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY), who represents a swing district on Long Island. LaLota's solution was for New York Governor Kathy Hochul to pardon Trump, which is both hilarious because Hochul hates Trump (and the feeling is mutual), and also because the congressman's only real answer of what to do with Trump is to somehow beg the Democrats for a "do-over." Mitt Romney also floated this as an idea for Biden to do for Trump, and I just...it's so milquetoast you have to laugh to keep from crying.
 |
| President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
All right, that was fun, but let's get professional again, and turn to what will now happen for Joe Biden. One of the biggest questions here has been how President Biden will react to the news, and how much (if at all) he will campaign upon it. To date, Biden and his team have been reluctant to talk about the multiple trials that Trump is facing. This felt natural-two of those trials were being pursued by his own Justice Department, and given the historic nature of your political opponent being on trial with your administration (even validly) being who is prosecuting you...it was a bad look to attack Trump.
But Biden's polling numbers have been terrible-if the presidential election were held today, he'd lose-and he can't afford to ignore this any longer. Biden's Communications Director Michael Tyler said after the verdict "There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president." It's hard to see Biden not using this in his campaign speeches going forward-calling Trump a convicted felon (which he now is) is going to be hard to resist, and is going to be important. Public polling has shown that Biden would gain some support if Trump was convicted (and more if he was incarcerated), and Biden needs to grow his support base. It's the equivalent of someone throwing you a case of Evian when you're walking through the desert-you can't turn it down. It's the smart decision to start using this as part of his campaign approach (and not just through surrogates-Biden needs to bring it up too, as "convicted felon" needs to be the attack line in the way that "her emails" was against Hillary because it's a winning message), and one he'll need to take on.
Whether it will change minds-again, it's too soon to tell. But Americans do not generally elect criminals in tossup elections (outside of Louisiana).
 |
| Judge Juan Marchan |
There are a few key questions in Trump's future. The first is around sentencing. The media speculation has been that Trump is unlikely to face jail-time for this conviction. He's a first-time felon, he's 78, and well, he's the Republican nominee for president. It's possible that Judge Juan Merchan will be harsher on Trump than he normally would with a first-time convict. Trump regularly broke court gag orders, attacking witnesses and the judge's own family. Merchan has leeway to put Trump in jail for up to four years if he so chose, though even then it's possible that Trump would be able to appeal and stay out of jail in the meantime. In a normal situation, the defendant would hide from public view and seek penance, trying to stay in the judge's good graces, and a normal defendant would not go to jail. This is Donald Trump, though, so it's almost certain he'll publicly attack the judge again, potentially even attacking members of the jury or try to publicly out them. One wonders how Merchan would react in such a scenario, which is why I think that it's a bit premature to assume Merchan's ultimate actions. If Trump is publicly attacking innocent civilians (which is what the jury members are), I think Merchan would take a harsher stance, and I do not put it past Trump & his surrogates to do so.
Regardless, the next six weeks will largely be focused in the media over Trump going to jail or not. That's bad, not just for his campaign, where he's been out of commission while Biden has been setting up GOTV infrastructure in swing states and been campaigning nonstop, but also because Trump has two major dates approaching: the first presidential debate on June 27th and the kickoff to the Republican National Convention on July 15th. There is now a certainty at the debate that Biden will be able to attack Trump as "more worried about if he's headed to jail than he is about the American people" and the RNC faces the distinct possibility they will not have their nominee...because he'll be in a cell at Rikers rather than the Milwaukee stage. Additionally, Trump being distracted is going to be the story for much of the early summer. And when Trump is the story, he tends to lose support.
It also makes Trump's other cases more interesting, both legally and in the court of public opinion. The Supreme Court has still not issued a decree about presidential immunity. Given the actions of Justices Alito & Thomas (and their spouses) in recent days, it's hard to imagine this makes consensus easier for Chief Justice John Roberts, unless he is hoping to provide Trump cover in the crimes he allegedly committed while in office that he's currently under indictment for in Georgia and DC. It's worth noting that Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes likely is sitting on an indictment of Trump for his involvement in the Arizona fake electors case, probably waiting on the Supreme Court case (MSNBC's legal analyst Lisa Rubin has speculated this publicly). If the Supreme Court allows the other trial to proceed, Trump may face an additional indictment in a fifth jurisdiction by year's end, and possibly a sixth one in Michigan (though Arizona is more likely than Michigan) over their fake electors case.
If the Supreme Court cases's politics got murkier, Trump's attacks on these investigations also did too. Trump is already a convicted felon-he loses credibility in his attacks on the other cases now. He "had his day in court" and he lost. Combined with his civil cases that he lost to the State of New York and E. Jean Carroll (worth $438 million in settlements) and an additional IRS audit that could cost Trump another $100 million in Illinois, Trump's consistently been proven to be guilty within the legal system. For persuadable or average Americans, this is a bad look: it's no longer innocent-until-proven-guilty...it's just guilty. The Trump campaign will have to find a way to get voters to not care that he's a felon, which he can do, but is harder to do without a literal conviction.
 |
| Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) |
One of the ways they could do that is through Trump's VP pick. Given the risk that Trump will not be able to attend the RNC, it is certain that Trump will announce his VP choice before July 11th, and therefore before knowing whether or not he will have to run as an incarcerated nominee. Given that, I think he will lean in on his attacks on the legal system by picking an attorney as his running-mate. No one is better prepared to attack the courtroom process, after all, than someone who has been in the legal profession, and Trump would love to use that sort of "even a lawyer says I shouldn't be in jail" angle to help prod his base for donations & support.
Of the most bandied names for the Trump VP slot, three are attorneys, all Republican senators: Marco Rubio (FL), JD Vance (OH), & Tom Cotton (AR). None of these three are former prosecutors (betting Trump wishes he was nicer to Chris Christie now), but they are all former attorneys. Of the three, Cotton is the most obvious choice for Trump if he wants to use someone to spin for him. A former Army Captain with an Ivy League education, Cotton has a lot of the "central casting" attributes that Trump really likes, and unlike Vance & Rubio, he does not have a string of public statements to get past criticizing Trump during his 2016 campaign (also, I struggle to see Rubio actually getting picked, mostly because Trump seems to revel in humiliating him, and this would be one last chance to do so). If Trump is unable to attend the RNC due to him being in jail, it is probably that the VP nominee will get to deliver the convention acceptance speech on Trump's behalf-Cotton is the best emulation of Trump to get MAGA supporters energized. Cotton would be a terrible choice given his positions on abortion, stem-cell research, & women's rights, but in terms of Trump's court case...he might honestly be Trump's defense strategy's best ambassador. We'll get into this as it unfolds (i.e. I've written enough today and will save some for later as this is an ongoing subject), but that last sentence is intentionally provocative: even more so than before the verdict, we are going to see a stark juxtaposition between what is good for Donald Trump's legal strategy and what is good for his party's political strategy in the coming months.
No comments:
Post a Comment