Why Biden is Making the Right Call in Florida

Swing states do not last forever.  In 2000, 13 states were won by Al Gore or George W. Bush by less than 5-points (basically the definition of a swing state)-some of the names that were amongst these thirteen included Oregon, Tennessee, & Missouri, all three states that will be called at poll close in November.  But there is a state that has stayed in swing state lore for so long at this point (in part because of its insanely crucial status from the 2000 election) that some can't let it go, even if it is looking increasingly likely to be going the way of a "former" swing state.  That state is, of course, Florida.

Florida has been decided by less than 6-points every single presidential election this century (I believe this is the only state to be able to claim this...someone challenge me in the comments if you want, but I can't think of another one), and it's darn close to 5-points were it not for John Kerry losing it be 5.01-points in 2004.  It is an electoral college juggernaut, worth 30 votes, and is basically the backbone of any Republican campaign for the White House-no Republican has lost Florida and won the White House in 100 years.  Trump would be the same-there is no plausible math that would allow Trump to get to 270 if Biden were to pocket the Sunshine State.

But Florida's swing state status has started to shift.  In 2020, while Joe Biden was winning the popular vote percentage by 3-points higher than Hillary Clinton's in 2016, Biden lost Florida by a wider margin (3.3 points) that Clinton did (1.2 points).  In 2018, while every other swing state was sending Democrats a bouquet of victories, Florida ousted an incumbent Senator (Bill Nelson) and the Democrats couldn't switch the governor's mansion, even if both were tight losses.  In 2022, while other swing states were feeling the heat of the Dobbs decision and sending a lot of Democrats back despite low approval ratings for Joe Biden, Marco Rubio & Ron DeSantis destroyed two sitting members of Congress as they sought to beat them.  Florida has increasingly become untenable for Democrats, as they have lost a lot of their strength in Southern Florida, specifically the Miami metro area, and if these trends continue, it will not be thought of as a swing state after 2024.

Florida will not, therefore, be the tipping point state.  But it does appear that the Biden-Harris campaign is considering it seriously as they approach their November game plan.  Biden's campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, stated this week that "Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden."  The Biden campaign has started making campaign hires there, which is something they're only doing right now in states they intend to challenge this fall (other states like Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin have been getting a similar treatment this past month from the Democrats).  And both Biden & Vice President Harris made a point of putting out statements & tweets yesterday about the Florida Supreme Court basically making abortion illegal in the state...with the catch of having abortion rights on the ballot this November.

Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL)

So the question here isn't whether I think Biden will win Florida (I do not).  It's whether I think this is a good idea, and I will say that I think it is.  There's a couple of reasons for this.  The first is a form of hedging your bets.  Biden should obviously invest in the six states that matter most (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Georgia), and the seventh state that is in the cards that Trump barely won in 2020 (North Carolina).  But it's early, and it's worth seeing where things happen.  This means putting some money into states that could bolt from him (like New Hampshire), but also to get a little bit crazy with longshots like Florida and Texas.  Biden is significantly outperforming Trump on fundraising, and spring is the time of the year for the campaign to dream big.  In the fall, he'll need to tamp down the dreaming and spend on places that are truly achievable (or need defense), but now is the time to test the waters to see if Florida could be one of those states.  After all, Biden did only lose the state by 3-points in 2020, and while he wouldn't have won the state without Covid, I do think he'd have been nearer to Clinton's numbers had he been able to have a traditional ground game in the state (which Trump did have, and Biden will be able to do in 2024).

The other reason that he should is the Senate.  The Democrats need to win at least two of our Ohio, Texas, Montana, & Florida to have any chance at the Senate.  The longest of those four shots is Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott (R) is expected to win over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.  But with the abortion news in Florida, and the fact that she's one of their four options to a majority, it's important to not abandon the race this soon.  If there's only a 5-10% chance either Biden or Mucarsel-Powell win in November...that's better than most states, and would be worth the money if it paid off.  I think that Biden is making the right call here (and I think Democrats make the right call by investing in Mucarsel-Powell now, which I have done with a recent donation, even if her chances are slim), just to see what happens.  The odds are long, but the prizes if you beat them are enormous.