In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5-points, a 2.4-point gain on Hillary Clinton's margin in 2016. This meant that Biden was the first Democrat since Barack Obama in 2008 to win the popular vote in the majority of our nation's congressional districts, delivering 226 districts to Trump's 209 (Clinton would only win 209). To do this, Biden actually flipped 17 congressional districts, most of them in surburban districts that have seen a sharp leftward tilt during the Trump years. Trump actually flipped two districts (TX-23 and FL-26), both with larger Latino populations that year, but it wasn't enough to save his majority.
After redistricting, heading into 2024, Biden is defending 224 districts while Trump won 211 districts in 2020 based on today's lines (redraws in New York, Alabama, North Carolina, & Louisiana altered the math above slightly). The question I'm asking today is-which seats are most likely to flip. It seems certain that districts we refer to as "Biden districts" today will go to Trump if Trump's polling position is accurate, and if it isn't, Biden will likely pick up a couple (hell, Trump got walloped in the popular vote in 2020 and still picked up districts-it's likely both sides swap). Below I take a look at the six likeliest on each side to bolt...in some cases in critical swing states that could decide the electoral college, and in all cases House seats that could decide the congressional majority.
(Editor's Note: This is about whether they flip on a presidential level. Some of these seats are currently held by a Republican for Congress but Biden for president, for example, but I'm focusing on a presidential level flip, not the House. Conversely, there are a couple of seats on this list that I don't think are flippable on a House seat but are on a presidential level due to Trump's unpopularity with a specific type of Democratic voter...so this is just about presidential flips, not necessarily the six most competitive House flips, as quite frankly only one of these seats would make that particular list).
The Flippable 6 (for Biden)
 |
| President Biden with California Gov. Gavin Newsom |
House Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +1.1%
Why I think It's Flippable: California is going to be a large question mark when it comes to the 2024 presidential election. Biden's low approval ratings, and the state's status as one of the safest blue havens on the map means that Democrats can skip the election (or cast protest votes) without much worry about it going to Trump (though it could hurt Biden's margins in the popular vote, and if they skip, the chances the Democrats have at winning the House). But if Biden makes a strong showing, the 41st could go blue. It has the Coachella Valley (home to the famous music festival), a strong blue area that is among the fastest-growing parts of the district. Calvert's surprisingly close race here in 2022 combined with Trump's extremist politics means that this is flippable. It's not a guarantee (Gavin Newsom lost it in 2022), but this is one to watch.
 |
| Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) |
House Incumbent: Lauren Boebert (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +8.3%
Why I think It's Flippable: Of all of the districts on this list, this would be the biggest swing if it flipped. Colorado's 3rd congressional district went for Trump by more than 8-points, so on the surface it feels like the sort of district where you'd be confident that Biden will gain more than it is that he will flip (that the margin will be closer in 2024 than 2020, we can pretty much guarantee). But it's worth noting that Jared Polis won this district in 2022 by 1.8-points, and Michael Bennet lost it by just over a point. The metro areas around Grand Junction, La Plata, & Pueblo continue to get bluer (much like the whole state), and this is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Republicans later this decade, even if it might be a stretch to say that Biden can fully flip it. The bigger question is-with the district opening and Adam Frisch having mountains of money from when he could campaign against Rep. Boebert (who has since moved to the 4th district), this is a prime opportunity for an actual House flip to get the Democrats closer to a majority.
 |
| Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) |
House Incumbent: Zach Nunn (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +0.3%
Why I think It's Flippable: First off, Trump won this district by three-tenths of a percentage point, making it the closest seat that he won on this list (and I believe in the nation). Despite Zach Nunn beating Cindy Axne by less than a percentage point in 2022, this is a district that Democrats probably would've won had they thought they could win it (Axne's one of several districts that the party seemed to abandon during the "red wave" press in late October, and it shows when you look at the results), but Rob Sand (the only Democrat who won statewide in 2022) took this district by 12-points, so there's lots of room for Democrats here. The district includes much of the increasingly blue Des Moines metro area, and that trending is going to make this a harder hold for Trump, even if I do wonder if this is a case of a district that Biden wins but Nunn does as well given we don't have a candidate as good as Axne in 2024.
 |
| Former President Trump with Rep. John James |
House Incumbent: John James (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +1.0%
Why I think It's Flippable: This is a quintessential swing district, with portions of southern Macomb County being slight blue while the remainder is slight red. It's all part of the Detroit metro area, though, which makes it rife for potential swings as the suburbs of most metro areas have become increasingly blue during the Trump years. Despite having virtually every advantage in the midterms, John James (who had run statewide twice) only won this district by a half-a-percentage point in 2022 for the House against an underfunded opponent (James out-raised him 6:1), proving this is increasingly tough territory for the Republicans. Gretchen Whitmer won this district in both 2018 & 2022, while Gary Peters also won it by just under a percentage point in 2020 (the rare split district between he and Biden). Honestly, I'm a little flummoxed why the DCCC isn't getting more involved here to also flip this away from James, as this feels like a majority-builder seat for Hakeem Jeffries.
 |
| President Trump shaking hands with Rep. Wagner |
House Incumbent: Ann Wagner (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +7.8%
Why I think It's Flippable: Similar to the seat in Colorado, this would be a pretty big jump for Biden, and it's perhaps more likely that he just sees a gain rather than actually flipping the seat. But I have to admit-there's a lot of things in Missouri's 2nd congressional district that read as a "future Biden district." It's 50% college-educated, one of the most highly-educated districts that Donald Trump won in 2020, and it's also the wealthiest and most suburban district in the state of Missouri. Despite winning the state by 13-points in 2022, Eric Schmitt only won the district by 3-points in the same election; it's probable had controversial former Gov. Eric Greitens been the nominee in 2022 that he would've lost the district even if he won statewide. The question here is around how much the Democrats invest-they got a B-Tier candidate to run against Wagner, but this isn't a swing state for the White House or Senate...will it just flip naturally without much competition in an otherwise locked-down red state?
 |
| President Biden campaigning in Wisconsin |
House Incumbent: Derrick van Orden (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Trump +4.7%
Why I think It's Flippable: Both of the Wisconsin swing seats are worth watching, not just for the presidential race, but also for the House. Of the two, I think Wisconsin's 3rd is the one to pay more attention to because the Democrats did flip it on a gubernatorial level in 2022; Tony Evers won the seat in 2022 by a half-a-point, and Derrick van Orden's rather extreme behavior (and his weird habit of yelling at children-seriously, Google it) doesn't help. My thought, though, is if Biden is the right candidate to flip this seat. It's a majority rural district...is this the kind of district that Democrats with a more local flare can flip, but that Biden won't be able to have the magic words?
The Flippable 6 (for Trump)
 |
| Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) |
House Incumbent: Young Kim (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Biden +1.9%
Why I think It's Flippable: Here's the deal with California's 40th-paired with the 45th, it is the kind of district that Donald Trump should be winning. Newsom lost this district by 11-points in 2022, and Young Kim is so heavily favored to win the seat in November that her opponent is almost always left off of the list of "competitive seats" in California when people are name-checking Mike Garcia, David Valadao, & John Duarte, even though Biden won here too. The problem is that it's Trump-I think Nikki Haley easily takes this district (even if she loses nationally) because the seat is basically a "Never Trump" district. The question is how long that dam will hold-it could be a case where Trump under-performs Kim, but still flips the seat.
 |
| President Biden greeting Rep. Slotkin |
House Incumbent: Elissa Slotkin (D) & Dan Kildee (D)
Presidential Results in 2020: Biden +1.0% & Biden +2.1%
Why I think It's Flippable: I'm combining these two, because they're roughly on the same page. Both are districts Biden barely won in 2020, but have had strong Democratic House incumbents who managed to hold on in 2022...and are both retiring in 2024 (though Slotkin is running for the Senate, not actually retiring). Biden's polling trouble in Michigan would point to trouble in both of these seats. If he underperforms at all, we could see one (or both) of these two disappear. However, it's worth noting that both favored Biden compared to the state in the recent battle between Biden & Uncommitted, so it's not a lost cause situation, and Slotkin campaigning could help general turnout in the 7th (the more marginal of the two), specifically. Also, Whitmer won both of these districts handily in both 2018 & 2022 (though Gary Peters lost the 7th by a minuscule margin in 2020 in his Senate campaign).
 |
| Rep. Davis (far right) with President & Dr. Biden |
House Incumbent: Don Davis (D)
Presidential Results in 2020: Biden +1.7%
Why I think It's Flippable: Much of the reason that the House remains a tossup for the Democrats rather than a likely flip comes from North Carolina. Three of the districts (those held by Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson, & Wiley Nickel) will flip red, to the point that none of the incumbents are bothering to even run for re-election in 2024, and so we only have one swing district left. The 1st did go for Joe Biden in 2020, albeit by a very small margin, but in her relatively close Senate campaign in 2022, Cheri Beasley would've lost it. The real question in this race is more practical than whether Biden can hold it (though I suspect at the end of the day they're linked): will Don Davis be able to keep this seat, which has a large African-American population (the only reason it's still competitive), but is otherwise pretty red. If Davis can't hold this, it makes the math for a House majority for the Democrats much harder.
 |
| Rep. Wild greeting President Biden at the State of the Union |
House Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Presidential Results in 2020: Biden +0.6%
Why I think It's Flippable: This is on the list more out of precaution, but of all of the districts in the Biden-to-Trump section, this is the seat I'm feeling the best about him holding, even though it was his closest. The closeness is why it's on this list-Biden won this by less than a percentage point in 2020, when he was giving everything he had into Pennsylvania. But Pennsylvania, it's worth noting, is the swing state that Biden is doing the best in in polling, Wild managed to win (against all odds) in 2022, and John Fetterman won this seat in 2022 by 4.3 points even though Katie McGinty lost it by nearly the same margin in 2016 for the Senate. The district includes Allentown, a swing area of Pennsylvania, and one that Biden will probably need to win to secure the state. If Trump is winning statewide, this is certainly flipping, but if Biden does...it's still in his column. Similar to Davis, Wild is a key component to a Democratic majority, so the Dems need Biden to hold this if they don't want to suffer an important loss in their House battle.
 |
| Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) |
House Incumbent: Jen Kiggans (R)
Presidential Results in 2020: Biden +1.9%
Why I think It's Flippable: First off, it literally flipped in 2022. Even though Biden won this district in 2020, Jen Kiggans defeated incumbent Elaine Luria by 3.4-points, a sizable defeat against a well-funded incumbent. The district also was the home to much of Glenn Youngkin's victory in 2021, with Youngkin winning the district by 11-points, a huge swing from 2020, and one that has to make Democrats nervous. The biggest question is around Virginia Beach, which saw a flip from the Republicans in the last presidential race, as the GOP had long had the upper-hand in tight elections here, with Trump winning the city by 4-points in 2016, but the Democrats flipped the region in 2020 for a 5-point Biden victory. If Biden can hold those gains, this could potentially stay blue (though I'm doubtful by enough to knock out Kiggans...Biden will likely need a bigger margin than last time to get the DCCC a victory here in 2024), but if Trump reverts this region back to 2016 margins, he'll take the district.
1 comment:
It continually stuns me that you are not a professional political analyst. How you can be so knowledgeable about these different races is beyond me!
Post a Comment