Maryland's Senate Primary is a Rare Thing: Competitive

Prince's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD)

One of the pitfalls of being the only person who writes this blog (very much as a side hobby-I have a full-time job, and a full-time house that takes up most of my attention) is that I sometimes miss stories that I would've wanted to discuss.  One of those stories was the decision by Tammy Murphy, current First Lady of New Jersey, to drop out of the US Senate race there.  Murphy's decision basically makes Rep. Andy Kim the de facto nominee (and in a state as blue as New Jersey, a de facto US Senator). 

This also means that the DSCC is avoiding yet another primary.  In fact, the DSCC has made avoiding primaries its raison d'être in recent years.  While the other three congressional arms frequently encounter such mess, the DSCC has made it through 2024 virtually unscathed.  The open seats in Delaware, Michigan & Arizona look like coronations for Reps. Lisa Blunt Rochester, Elissa Slotkin, & Ruben Gallego, respectively, and while California did have a primary, it was over months before the actual election.  Thanks to a quick effort by Rep. Adam Schiff to ensure he had a Republican opponent, both Reps. Barbara Lee & Katie Porter were lame ducks nearly a year out from the next Congress.  Even the challengers in competitive races (like Reps. Colin Allred & Debbie Mucarsel-Powell) are doing so without any competition.  This is a fascinating counter to the Republicans, who have potentially competitive primaries in Utah, Michigan, Nevada, and just finished a much ballyhooed race in Ohio.

The sole exception to this is what is happening Maryland, which has become not only the marquee Senate primary this cycle, but the only Senate primary remaining this cycle worth a damn on the left.  The race features Rep. Dave Trone, a three-term House incumbent who is facing off against Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.  The race initially started out with Trone having a huge advantage.  He is personally wealthy (he is the founder of the Total Wine retail chain, and appears to have a family fortune in excess of $2 billion), and has outspent Alsobrooks 12-1 in the race.  

However, Trone has made some fumbles in recent weeks, which have left Alsobrooks an opening.  Trone, though he has presented as a progressive in the primary, has a more moderate past, and even donated to Republicans like Greg Abbott and Pat McCrory in the past, which Alsobrooks has successfully exploited.  Abortion has become a major topic in the race, and Emily's List (a Democratic group that supports pro-choice women, and is actively supporting Alsobrooks in the race) has pointed out that Trone has supported candidates who passed restrictive abortion laws in Georgia, questioning his opinion on abortion rights.  Trone also made a racial slur (that seemed accidental-he claimed to use the wrong word in a congressional hearing) that caught him a lot of bad headlines especially given that Alsobrooks is African-American (like a large portion of the Maryland Democratic primary electorate will be).  No poll so far has shown the race (which takes place in mid-May) with Alsobrooks winning, but the latest poll from Garin-Hart-Yang, the only poll this month, shows Trone only leading by three-points as Alsobrooks is rolling out a steady list of endorsements, including from Cory Booker, Raphael Warnock, and Maryland Reps. Jamie Raskin & John Sarbanes.

Rep Dave Trone (D-MD)

The closeness of the Senate primary is unique.  The last time I can find where a Democratic-held open-seat Senate primary was decided by less than 10-points was in Illinois in 2010, where State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias beat Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman by just 5-points (despite Giannoulias being the heavy favorite amongst the Democratic elite...a sign of how he'd foul up the general a few months later).  Most Senate primaries that we think of as "being close" in that time frame simply weren't.  2016's race where Rep. Chris van Hollen beat Rep. Donna Edwards in Maryland (which Alsobrooks has to worry about given the clear through-line of a sitting white congressman defeating a Black woman in the blue state) was decided by 20-points.  Both Martin Heinrich defeated Hector Balderas and Mazie Hirono defeated Ed Case by 17-points in 2012.  

Even if you move beyond the open blue seat criteria, you don't run into many tough competitive primaries.  For example, despite a lot of press, John Fetterman defeated Conor Lamb by 32-points in 2022.  Incumbent Democrats generally have been fine.  Ed Markey's supposedly "nailbiter" race with Joe Kennedy III ended up with him winning by 11-points.  Dianne Feinstein only won by 8-points in 2018 against State Sen. Kevin de Leon, but that was a general election so it doesn't really count.

The only major races I can find on the map (I have some diligent readers who will point out if I missed one, but I think I'm good here) in the last decade that were for a competitive/blue seat ithat were decided by less than 10-points were the 2016 Senate primary in Pennsylvania (where Katie McGinty beat Rep. Joe Sestak by just a few hundredths of a percentage point less than 10-points), and Sen. Brian Schatz defeating Rep. Colleen Hanabusa by less-than-a-point in 2014 in Hawaii, the last true nailbiter when it comes to a Democratic primary in a race that the Democrats would win the general.

All of this is to say, Alsobrooks even being competitive is honestly an atypical world for the Democrats right now.  The question is-does she have enough time (and more crucially) enough money to get through to the Senate against Trone, in a race that will likely decide Maryland's next US Senator.  I have not attempted to hide that I am actively rooting for Alsobrooks (and will be donating to her campaign tomorrow), but if I am looking at this race impartially, she needs to close the gap a little faster if she wants more than just a moral victory in this race, as right now I'd bet on Trone being the nominee.