What Nikki Haley's Campaign is REALLY About Now

Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)

There comes a point in every presidential primary where the nominees are certain, but the race is still going.  It's not just that there are elections left (though that happens too), but where the losing candidates won't get out of the race, even though the nominees are set.  It's likely that there was never a point in the past year where Donald Trump & Joe Biden were remotely vulnerable for their party's nominations, but we are certainly at that point now.  We are going to experience our first rematch election since 1956 and our first election to feature multiple former or sitting presidents in the general since 1912.  But the race isn't officially over for the nomination.  People like Dean Phillips continue to embarrass themselves (it's probable at this point that Phillips will end this race with no delegates...and no political future).  But the biggest question mark still in the race is around former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.  Why is she still running for president?

Haley is not a dumb woman.  Whatever you think of her political skills (I've always thought them to be a tad overrated, though she looks like Richard Nixon compared to most of the other people who ran against Trump this season), she is smart enough to know she is not going to win the Republican nomination for president in 2024.  Other Republicans, like Ron DeSantis, Doug Burgum, & Tim Scott stood aside, and have endorsed Trump.  Haley does not give off the vibes of a Chris Christie, someone who ran for president and clearly has no intention of endorsing Trump for president.  I do, in fact, believe that she will get behind Trump before the year is over.  But she has been out on the campaign trail, and is aggressively going after Trump in a way that she hasn't all year.  It begs the question of why...what is she gaining here?

The Haley we've seen in the past six weeks is not the Haley who carefully stated in 2023 that she would pardon Donald Trump if he was found guilty, and talked about Trump being the "right president at the right time."  Recently on CNN, she said that if Trump was found guilty, he "needs to pay a price" and defended the jury in the E. Jean Carroll case, where they awarded Carroll $83 million in damages and the judge said that Trump was guilty of rape.  Haley's defense here is remarkable because it's basically unheard from someone like her, who seems intent on endorsing Trump and was in his administration, to basically cut against the "vast conspiracy" messaging that has become MAGA gospel.  Haley saying "I absolutely trust the jury" is basically unprecedented for a Republican of her ilk; we usually only see this from people like Chris Christie or Liz Cheney, people the party has largely left behind.

It would make sense if Haley was a viable option in this primary.  Haley is right to say she's more electable-it's clear that Biden's best path (possibly his only path) to a second term is running against Trump.  And one of the best ways to do that would be to point out that Trump's legal problems are real.  He does owe $83 million to a woman whom a judge say he raped.  He is facing 91 indictments in four different jurisdictions, likely at least one of which he'll stand trial for before the election.  This is not a good presidential candidate, and it'd be a good differentiator.

But Haley's not going to be the nominee.  The majority of the Republican electorate wants Trump again, and he's going to let them have him.  There's no path for Haley-her prolonging this race until Super Tuesday is not a way for her to make up ground-she's never going to win.  That makes her run either symbolic...or something else.  I don't think it's symbolic, because Haley is not Chris Christie-she's never been shy about abandoning Trumpian politics, just about not wanting to nominate Trump again.  So that means it has to be something else, and I think it's pretty clear what it is-Haley is looking at 2028, and understanding that the only way she gets there is if Donald Trump loses in November.

For most of the race, it looked like Haley was running a vice presidential bid disguised as a primary campaign.  That happens all the time, and sometimes it's successful (Joe Biden & George HW Bush are both vice presidents-turned-presidents who got the first job after running against their eventual bosses for the White House).  But something happened after Haley started to actually threaten Trump's standing and began to go for the jugular.  The notoriously thin-skinned former president surely viewed her as a rival more than a sycophant, and she got adiosed from the prospective VP list.  I don't see a world where Haley's presidential campaign helped her to get on the 2024 ticket in the way it might've someone like Tim Scott.

If Haley isn't on the 2024 ticket, but still has designs on the White House, that means she needs the Republican ticket this fall to lose.  Should Trump win, he'll either try to defy the 22nd Amendment (a discussion for a different day) or his running-mate would be the odds-on favorite to become the next president.  Hell, given Trump's age, weight, and his slurred speaking patterns on the stump, his running-mate might be the incumbent by 2028 if he wins.  Haley's moment will have passed-even at 52, she'll be yesterday's news by 2032 if she wants to run again.

So this is a Hail Mary pass, one that might not work, but is the only explanation as to why she's still running-she wants to be the "I told you so" candidate in 2028.  This comes with risks (Trumpism isn't going away in 2028...figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Karie Lake, or JD Vance will try to pick up Trump's mantle even if he loses this fall), but it's a solid ploy.  By 2028, if Biden wins, the Democrats will have been in charge for 16 of the past 20 years.  It's hard to hold power that long without a change, and a conservative (who believes in NATO and electoral democracy) will look refreshingly moderate to the electorate.  And four years of "we should've gone with Haley" after a Biden win would be a really good opening for the former South Carolina governor in 2028.  In order for that to happen, though, she needs Donald Trump to lose, and the only way she can ensure that happens (without risking the base) is in the next few weeks while she is still "running for president" and can attack him as a candidate, not a spurned Republican.  Because she's a Republican, the media is listening to her criticisms in a way they wouldn't if Joe Biden went after Donald Trump.  And if you look at Trump's poll position (he still leads, but Joe Biden has clearly gained in the past two months, to the point where he might overtake him soon in the average), it's hard not to think part of that is Nikki Haley's plan working.