The Impending RNC Hurricane

RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel & former President Trump

By virtually any measure, Ronna McDaniel has been a truly terrible RNC Chair.  Despite coming in with the impressive track record of flipping Michigan to President Trump in 2016 as state chair (one of three states that won him the White House that year), she has since presided over an abysmal 7-year tenure helming the RNC.  In 2018, she lost the House by an enormous margin, in 2020, she lost the White House and the Senate, and in 2022, despite a tied Senate, she couldn't flip the body.  In the meantime, she's watched as a new generation of progressive leaders won Republican-held governorships in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kentucky, & Kansas.  Honestly, there is nothing you can point to on her resumé where you could call her a success, and perhaps she's been the worst RNC Chair since the 1960's.

It should not be a surprise given her failures that McDaniel is being ousted from the RNC, but it has to be acknowledged that it's a bit eyebrow-raising.  It has been reported that McDaniel will stand down after the South Carolina Republican Primary, being replaced by North Carolina Republican Party Chair Michael Whatley, who has the support of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.  Whatley will likely be joined as a "Co-Chair" by Lara Trump, who is the daughter-in-law of the former president.  Whatley's history as North Carolina Chair is a mixed bag, winning competitive Senate races there in 2020 & 2022 (as well as holding the state for President Trump in 2020, the only major swing state aside from Florida to stay red), while not being able to win the governor's mansion in 2020.  Whatley is an election denier, claiming that Trump won the 2020 presidential election even though Joe Biden won it, and oversaw the censure of former Republican US Senator Richard Burr in 2021 due to Burr's support for impeaching President Trump over his involvement in the January 6th terrorist attacks on the Capitol.  Whatley does have experience in Republican politics beyond Trump (which you cannot say for Ms. Trump), working for Elizabeth Dole & George W. Bush, but he is a devout Trump loyalist in a way that McDaniel, who seemed more focused on the success of the larger party (even though she was very devoted to the president), simply was not.

This matters for a trio of reasons, but the first is that the RNC is not, despite Lara Trump's assertions to the contrary, solely there to elect Donald Trump to a second term.  It's worth noting what the RNC actually does.  The RNC is largely ceremonial (they don't do a lot with actual policy), but they do play an important role as a fundraising mechanism.  While they volunteer, run campaign ads, and help with GOTV efforts, their biggest goal is to make as much money as possible, which goes to funding these ventures, as well as to help provide aid to candidates up-and-down the ballot (including the president), and to help state parties, particularly those that might be underfunded who could host competitive elections.  Take, for example, the state of Nebraska.  The state is dominated by Republicans, but the state has a competitive House race in the 2nd district; it does not behoove the DNC to have a broke Nebraska State Party (particularly given those are the people who know the state the best), so they might help to fund the state party to help win that congressional district.  The RNC and DNC (along with the NRSC/DSCC and NRCC/DCCC) are a crucial component of campaign strategy, and them being properly funded is a critical part of winning elections, and more importantly, not having to triage competitive races because they can't afford to fund them.  It is not, it has to be noted, solely there for Joe Biden or Donald Trump, but for the entire party infrastructure to succeed in November.

The second reason this is noteworthy is because of what this might mean at the RNC.  McDaniel leaving in favor of Whatley/Trump taking over comes as there are worries about more upheaval at the RNC.  According to quotes from former Trump staffer Steve Bannon, the former president intends to upend the RNC, removing staffers he deems disloyal, as well as some of the 168 committee members who are not as devoted to Trump as he would like.  This would result in a more Trump-focused RNC, one that would be more open to using all of the funds specifically for Trump.

Lara Trump

This could manifest in a couple of ways.  First, it would mean that Trump might have more bandwidth to deny certain Republicans access to funds from the RNC if he deems them unworthy.  Look at someone like Congressman David Valadao.  Valadao is one of 17 Republicans running for reelection who won in a Biden district in 2022, making him one of the most valuable members of the House majority-losing his seat would be a huge problem for Republicans who want to keep Mike Johnson in power, and will require millions in spending.  But Valadao voted to impeach President Trump over the January 6th terrorist attacks, and it would be easy to see Trump (or Whatley/Trump on the former president's say-so) declaring "no" to supporting Valadao for not being sufficiently loyal.  This would be insane from a practical effect (Valadao is an important part of a successful Republican coalition, and losing him would be a big deal), but Trump has rarely shown that he cares about the larger success of the party compared to his own success, and given his daughter-in-law's public statements, I suspect she will follow a similar path if elected as RNC Co-Chair.

The second is that a more loyalist RNC will look the other way as Trump faces multiple civil & criminal cases next year that will cost tens of millions in legal fees.  The former president has officially stated that he will not use RNC funds to pay for his legal bills, but that's not a promise he's required to keep (particularly as he will be cash-strapped in the coming weeks as he needs to find upwards of $500 million in bond insurance, which will leave him cash-poor and potentially having to sell some of his real estate empire).  The threat of the RNC essentially becoming a legal defense fund for Trump could hurt his standing with certain donors (who may look elsewhere to donate if they don't want their money to go to helping Trump outside of the electoral arena), and it would leave the RNC cash-poor.  This happens at a time when the RNC needs money, as state parties in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, & Minnesota (all home to either competitive Senate, House, and/or presidential politics), are struggling to make ends meet, in some cases being completely broke.  These committees would normally rely upon the RNC to help fund their coffers headed into an election year where they will have outsized importance-without that money, they will not be able to compete with their Democratic counterparts, and that will cost them votes.

Because that's the big thing here.  Even if Trump honors his word that he won't dip into RNC funds (or his own campaign funds) to pay off his legal fees, the Republicans are falling behind in campaign fundraising.  The four major arms of the Republican party (Trump's POTUS campaign, the RNC, NRSC, and NRCC) are all underfunded compared to their Democratic counterparts in terms of cash-on-hand, in some cases (such as Trump's campaign team and the RNC) by nearly double.  To show how stark this is-Biden raised $42 million in January, Trump only $9 million.  Money is not everything in politics, and frequently small-dollar donors will give to candidates (like Amy McGrath or Jaime Harrison) who had no chance of winning.  But the four campaign arms of each party tend to focus only on winnable races, and having a significant lead in all of these will matter as they start to pick-and-choose what races get attention in the summer & fall.  Having an inexperienced team at the helm (while Democrats stay steady with experienced leaders at all four of their campaign arms), especially one who will let Trump cherry-pick races or let him use already limited funds to pay off his legal bills could be a huge detriment.  McDaniel's time as Chair has been a horrible failure...that doesn't mean that the new leadership couldn't be worse for the RNC.