Please Don't Take Larry Hogan Seriously

Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)

States have a long history of electing governors that don't quite match how they vote on a federal level.  In recent years, Senate elections are virtually identical to presidential elections (only once in both 2016 and 2020 combined, Susan Collins of Maine, did a senator win while their presidential nominee was losing the state), but governors, while they're less likely to go against the national trends, definitely do that still.  Looking at the map now, there are seven states that have different governors than they voted in the 2020 presidential election: four voted for Biden for president with Republican governors (Nevada, New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia) while three did the reverse, siding with Trump but still voting for a Democratic governor (Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina).

It takes a special kind of candidate to do this.  In some cases, like Chris Sununu, Laura Kelly, & Andy Beshear, we're talking about some of the most impressive political candidates sitting in governor's mansions today.  But that doesn't mean that these candidates could run successfully for a federal office in their states, specifically running for US Senate.  This morning, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced that he will be pursuing the open US Senate seat in the state of Maryland, trying to succeed Ben Cardin.  Pundits were crowing about this, saying it was a big deal, a hit to the Democrats' Senate chances, and moving the race from Solid to Likely Democrat.  To that I say-get real.

Hogan joins a long, long, long list of governors who have tried to run for the Senate after defying the laws-of-gravity in their state for governor.  We have been to this dance before, and it always ends the same.  The current streak started in 2012, two years after Joe Manchin (I believe the last person to pull this off) did it in West Virginia.  Both Linda Lingle (R-HI) and Bob Kerrey (D-NE) went from solid tenures as governor (and in Kerrey's case, a two-term senator), and were much ballyhooed as recruiting coups, getting massive public press & attention.  In both cases, they lost by double digits (Lingle losing by an astounding 25-points).

This continued in the years that followed.  Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) both tried to outrun Hillary Clinton in 2016, both got clobbered.  In 2018, it was Phil Bredesen (D-TN), while in 2020 we saw Steve Bullock (D-MT) lose.  You might think this is largely a Democratic failure, but you'd be wrong-just ask Jim Gilmore or Bill Weld.  The reality is that this is always a touch-and-go situation.  It's why Chris Sununu ruled out a Senate run in 2022.  The risk wasn't worth having a giant "L" on your track record.

It used to be the case that this was a plausible way to get into DC.  Other than Manchin, we saw figures like Ben Nelson and Mel Carnahan do it in 2000, and other governors like George Voinovich, Chuck Robb, & Evan Bayh (the first time) pull it off.  But it's not a thing that happens anymore.  Voters are savvy-they know that there's a difference between whom you send to Topeka or Montpelier compared to whom you send to DC, and they vote accordingly.

So the idea that Hogan will be competitive here is absurd.  Anyone changing from Solid to Likely Democrat for this race is giving into sensationalism.  There is no recent history of a state like Maryland going red for Senate in a presidential election.  It has no historical Republican roots like West Virginia does for Democrats...it'd be the equivalent of flipping Idaho in a presidential race, which I'm sorry...no one would believe either.  Some argue this hurts the Democrats chances, and I say no, it doesn't-again, get real.  The Democrats continue to be underdogs to hold the Senate, but Maryland didn't impact that.  I doubt that the major organizations helping to fund the Democrats' Senate changes (DSCC, Senate Majority PAC, or the DNC) will spend so much as a dime in Maryland, and it's unlikely that many donations will go to the district for the general election (given the closeness of the primary race between Dave Trone & Angela Alsobrooks, organizations like Emily's List will weigh in, but that would've happened regardless).  The only thing this has changed is Larry Hogan's win record is about to have a giant blemish on it (thankfully in this race and not in the more damaging No Labels presidential primary contest, so honestly this is a win for Democrats' overall odds for a trifecta in 2024), and a bunch of pundits are embarrassing themselves by pretending this is even slightly competitive.  Not every high-profile candidate makes a race more competitive, and that's the case here.