Joe Biden Isn't the Best Candidate...But He Could Still Be the Winning Candidate

President Joe Biden (D-DE)

I frequently say, "when you nominate a presidential candidate, you're signing an eight year lease that might only last a few months."  Every four years, both major political parties in the United States nominate their candidates, and if it's an open primary, they nominate someone who (at least in the last century) has never been president.  In 2020, the Democratic Party did that, and they nominated former Vice President Joe Biden.  Looking at the race now, it's clear that was the correct choice.  Trump was a uniquely polarizing candidate, but sometimes we confuse that with uniquely unpopular, and while the voters who were against him loathed him, it has to be said that he created a coalition for the Republicans that many other members of his party would've struggled to construct.  He won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, and in 2020, he nearly did it again.  Biden's moderation, his decades-in-government, and his genuine kindness were enough to peel off enough disengaged voters who went third party in 2016 (or didn't vote at all) to vote for the former Delaware senator, and get him five flips in Trump 2016 states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin).  Biden was the right choice in 2020, and looking at some of the other leading Democrats, perhaps the only choice that actually could beat Trump.

Four years later, it's clear the Democrats have a problem.  Biden's age has become an anchor, possibly a fatal one, to his campaign.  American perception on the economy seems to be "I'm doing well, but others aren't, so I assume the economy is lousy" even as Biden clears metrics that it's probable Trump wouldn't have thanks to some savvy economic moves to combat inflation.  Biden has been, from a liberal perspective, a very good president, the most progressive president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, but his age and the higher-than-the-Trump-years inflation are huge issues, and make him vulnerable for the White House.

So you may wonder whether Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who recently entered the Democratic primary, becoming the first incumbent member of Congress since Ted Kennedy in 1980 to challenge a sitting president in a primary, might have a point-could the Democrats do better than Biden?  The question is hard to answer, primarily because it's in a vacuum.  

It's easy to say a few things, to start out with.  First, if there is a better option than Joe Biden, it's not Dean Phillips.  An unknown congressman from a largely white, suburban district in Minnesota who isn't even done with his third term (he happens to be my congressman, he said with a groan & realizing that I believe I have one of his yard signs in my garage) is a terrible option to represent most of America, and I think even Phillips has to realize this on some level.  He's doing what used to be known as a stalking horse campaign, where a more famous option sends in someone less famous to test the waters before they enter.  But none of the more famous members of the Democratic Party are actually going to run against Biden-if they were going to, they would've done so months ago.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN)

Looking at the better options, it's possible that, in 2024, the Democrats would be better off with another candidate.  Certainly, a younger option would be a good idea.  Two names you see the most are Gretchen Whitmer & Raphael Warnock, who for my money are the Democrats' best ticket in 2028 (more so than already-established national politicians like Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg).  Whitmer represents a swing state where she outran Biden in 2022, and has a blueprint of progressive legislation that she could point to as proof that she'd be able to speak to her base in Washington.  Warnock might be the most gifted public speaker in elected office in 2023, and would be a surefire bet to stop some of the leaking numbers of young Black men who have become a concern of Biden's in polling.  Both of these candidates could be better than Biden...

...but we don't know that.  History is littered with promising candidates (Kirsten Gillibrand, Rick Perry, Lamar Alexander, Wesley Clark, Scott Walker, & Ron DeSantis, to name a few) who were hailed as potential superstars only to flame out when they actually ran for president.  Running for president requires quick coalition building, fundraising at an astronomical scale, dealing with a tenacious national media, and quite frankly, a good deal of luck & timing.  It's hard to run for president, and many very talented politicians have found it a hill to steep.  Warnock & Whitmer should run for president at some point, but it's not clear they're better than Biden, even in 2024.

What we do know in 2024 is that Biden is the kind of candidate the country can get behind, because they did in 2020.  He's the kind of candidate who can beat Donald Trump, because he did in 2020.  He is also the candidate we're going to end up with as it's simply too late to land someone new into the race.  Phillips may have a point, that Biden isn't the best option for 2024, but that argument needed to be made in February, not in October...it's simply too late to go with another candidate, and a no-name congressman who likely can't even win his own House primary at this point is not going to be the guy who can make that argument.  He's just going to be a nuisance.  Democrats signed a deal with Biden in 2020 that they'd stick by him in 2024, and they waited too long to see if they could get out of that lease.  Unless they want Donald Trump for four more years, they're going to have to figure out a way to prove that just because you're not the best candidate doesn't mean you can't be the winning candidate.