Tom Suozzi's Comeback Bid

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY)

Comeback bids are common in American politics, but they're surprisingly not that successful if you've won before, at least when you take a peak at Congress.  Currently in the United States House of Representatives (somehow without a Speaker, possibly the most embarrassing thing I've seen in American politics, and yet the media seems to not be able to focus on it because Joe Biden gets a discount at Perkins) there are currently just a dozen members of the House that previously served in the House before their current terms non-consecutively.  That means that it definitely happens, but it's not that common to leave the House, and then come back.  Part of that is because there's usually a reason you leave the House-either you retired, ran for a higher office (one that you can oftentimes win), or you were defeated at the ballot box.  In all of these cases, you've given up your power of incumbency, and are (while well-known) either a challenger or going for an open seat.

This past week, former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) kicked off a run for the US House for his old seat, this time taking on controversial Republican Rep. George Santos, who was indicted on 23 fraud-related charges earlier this week.  Santos starts this race as a severe underdog.  For starters, there's no guarantee that he'll even survive the primary-a number of Republicans are already in the race, and several others (like State Rep. Michael Durso) are still considering running.  Given Santos could well be in jail this time next year, nominating him would be madness...except they're doing that on a presidential level, so I wouldn't count him out for the GOP nomination.  Given the makeup of the district, though, Santos would be basically DOA if he was the nominee against a qualified Democrat.  Joe Biden won the district by 8-points in 2020, and Santos was only able to win because the seat was open & Gov. Kathy Hochul was underperforming statewide.  In a presidential election, even without mid-decade redistricting to make the seat bluer (which could well happen), this seat is a gimme pickup for the left if they nominate a quality option.

Suozzi would be that quality option if they chose him.  The former congressman ran a quixotic bid against Gov. Hochul in the primary last year, one that was clearly a nonstarter from the get-go, to the point that I assumed the 61-year-old Democrat simply wanted out of DC, it was so obviously not going anywhere.  But Suozzi is back, and I am wondering...can the Democrats do better, given this is as closed to a guaranteed pickup as you can get?

This doesn't have a lot to do with Suozzi already having run for the seat, though it is worth noting that his path back to the House doesn't have a lot of current precedence.  Of the dozen current members of Congress that served non-consecutively, most of them are there because they won seats, lost seats, and won them back again.  Eight in total (Claudia Tenney, David Valadao, Brad Schneider, Steven Horsford, Dina Titus, Bill Foster, Pete Sessions, & Tim Walberg) all won-lost-won, in all cases getting ousted in a wave election & then returning in a more favorable environment.  Two members, Kweisi Mfume & Ryan Zinke, left the House to pursue an appointed position (the NAACP President and Secretary of the Interior, respectively).  One member just retired (Darrell Issa) and got bored & came back.  Only one current member of the House of Representatives (Ed Case) ran for higher office, lost, and then returned to the House in a similar path that Suozzi is attempting.

State Sen. Anna Kaplan (D-NY)

But I don't think that's a sign Suozzi won't win-if he's the nominee, he'd be the heavy favorite against Santos.  No, I think the Democratic Party in New York could do considerably better than Suozzi, which is why I am hoping that we don't do a retread just cause it's easy.  Suozzi is getting into this race late.  There are several other candidates already for the Democrats, including nonprofit founder Zak Malamed, State Sen. Anna Kaplan, & Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan.  Malamed has led fundraising so far, but it's Kaplan that probably has the best shot in the district, given she's held public office here & is coming in with higher name recognition (not to mention that she's the only female candidate in a field of men, which can sometimes help in a primary, especially with her Emily's List endorsement).  There is no polling in this race yet (hopefully that changes), but if I had to bet, I'd guess that Kaplan is probably Suozzi's biggest hurdle to getting back into the House.

Suozzi, though, has had a checkered history in the New York Democratic Party, frequently as someone who defied convention for little reason.  He ran against presumed frontrunners in the 2006 & 2022 Democratic Primaries (in both cases, he lost in a landslide to the person who eventually won the general election), and in 2006 he even threatened to split the vote by running as an Independent for Governor.  By not running in 2022, he ceded his seat to George Santos, and his choice not to run & win was part of a larger effort among New York Democrats to express their frustration at the state of the party...that ultimately cost us six Biden district seats, enough to lose the House.  Kaplan is not perfect (she lost her seat in the general in 2022 to former State Sen. Jack Martins), but she also didn't abandon her post in a time of need for the party.  Given that Suozzi has a history of being a problem for the Democrats, and of office-shopping (unsuccessfully) rather than tending to his own job, I do hope that the Democrats of his district don't just pick the most familiar name as they strive to beat George Santos next year.