Taking a Look at Joe Biden's Chances

President Joe Biden (D-DE)

I've kind of been avoiding writing an article about this, because I try really hard not to sink into hyperbole or clickbait when it comes to politics.  I think it's irresponsible, occasionally bordering on dangerous, to simply stir up people and make them anxious for no reason.  It makes it so that when something bad is actually approaching people don't take it seriously because you've become the boy who cried wolf.  But this past week, I had a few signs, including Dave Wasserman (of the Cook Political Report) going off on recent presidential polling, as well as a series of actual presidential matchup polls that have made me ask the question: what are Joe Biden's chances next year?

I think the first thing to say when it comes to this is that we don't know.  If the election where held a year out (which is roughly where we are right now), we would have had Presidents Hillary Clinton, Mike Dukakis and both George HW Bush & Jimmy Carter would've been reelected.  Conversely, it was pretty obvious at this point that Bill Clinton was probably getting another term & that Donald Trump was not.  So the point is-it's not super predictive.  It can be right, it can not be right.

What we can tell right now is a few things.  First off, Biden's poll numbers are not good.  If the election were held today, I think Donald Trump would probably win.  I'll let you grab some wine before I go on.

Okay, now that you're clutching your chardonnay, I'm going to give you the why behind that, and why you shouldn't switch to moonshine (yet).  Biden's poll numbers consistently show that he is underwhelming with a few key demographics, specifically younger voters and voters of color who do not have a college degree.  These are both demographics that Democrats genuinely win, and with younger voters specifically, who have declined to back Donald Trump; voters of color, specifically young men of color, have seen some gains for Republicans with Trump but are predominantly still Democratic.  These are crucial voters not just for Biden, but for the coalition that Biden needs in 2024 to win the electoral college.  Nevada, Arizona, & Georgia are all three states that have larger populations of color (Latino & African-American voters), and with Nevada specifically, have very low college degree-attainment rates (Nevada ranks 44th in the country, the lowest of any state that Biden won in 2020).

This is driven by two factors-Biden's age and the economy.  Despite only being three years older than Trump (and objectively, showing less signs of aging in terms of his cognitive abilities than Trump, though the Republican's use of hair dye & pancake makeup do mask his true age better), people are far more critical of Biden's age than of the GOP frontrunner, who would also become the oldest president in history if he were to be elected (though based on media reports, you'd never know it).  Additionally, though inflation rates have lowered, they are still not at a place where people are happy (sidebar-I don't think anyone knows what a good economy looks like anymore, or it's been warped to such a degree that I think no one is ever going to be properly happy with the economy again).

These are serious problems, and ones that I will say the Democrats need to address, and have not put out a plan that would settle it.  If Biden wants to combat the age issue, he does, in fact, have to start going out to more meet-and-greets.  He does need to start going after Trump directly on the economy more, and doing so with surrogates.  Biden campaigned in 2020 as a transitional president...that is actually true in 2024, and it would behoove him to make a point of saying "I'm doing this one last time...but look at the stars next to me like Whitmer/Warnock/Shapiro/Hobbs who are the next generation of leaders that we're going to usher in in 2028."  Biden's campaign needs to be stronger than this to beat Trump.

But Wasserman trying to write Biden off (which he claims he's not doing, but then says sentences like "Biden is in absolutely dire shape" a year out from the election feels like he's trying to bait engagement, rather than be responsible with his predictions) feels absurd.  For starters, the campaign hasn't happened yet.  Biden not campaigning against Trump yet doesn't mean he won't-he's a year out, and Trump is still in the Republican primary.  It's not traditional to go all-in on your campaign until we know who the nominee will be.

Additionally, Trump today is not who he'll be a year from now.  For starters, he'll likely be either on trial or in jail a year from now, given the timing of when the election is.  There's this idea that Trump is teflon, and he is with Republican voters, but he's not with general election voters.  If he was, he'd be coming to the end of his second term.  Voting for a man who is in jail for trying to overthrow the government is apparently not a situation that you can just assume you're going to win...but it's also a reality that I think people will realize is about to happen if they don't vote for Biden.  Third party bids are semi-serious, but they'll dissipate as they always do, and at the end of the day, I think 2024 will still be high turnout, still be a time when Biden gets the votes because Trump when he's at the center-of-attention (and he will be next year in a way he's not today) drives turnout for Democrats.  

I think Trump would win if the election were held today.  I also think that a second Biden term is the likeliest outcome next year...but I do think it's closer than the Democrats' are acting like it is, and it would be smart to start campaigning like we're in for a tight contest.