My Thoughts on Laphonza Butler, California's Newest Senator

Senator-Designate Laphonza Butler (D-CA)

One of the fun things about running this blog is that sometimes I get to write articles that stand the test of time (there are posts from years ago that people still visit with delightful regularity, frequently more than current articles).  And then there are the posts, especially when it comes to the breakneck speed of politics, that become dated moments after I hit publish.  That was true of yesterday's article about the California Senate race, where I incorrectly read the tea leaves about Gov. Gavin Newsom's strategy for replacing Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the US Senate.  While I stand behind the ideas I had and its impact to Rep. Barbara Lee had she been appointed to the seat, she wasn't.  Instead, Newsom picked a name that seemingly came out of nowhere, Laphonza Butler, to be the next senator from the country's most populous state.  And because I want to get my new thoughts on record, we're having a second article about the California Senate appointment in as many days.

To say that Butler is an unknown to most Californians would be a huge understatement.  Butler has never held political office, and her most important connections to the state were through working for Vice President Kamala Harris during her 2020 presidential run, and her role as a regent for the University of California.  But DC insiders would be very familiar with Butler due to her role as President of Emily's List, one of the progressive movement's most important Super PAC's, which focuses on electing pro-choice women to public office across the country.  Virtually every woman in the Democratic caucus has been endorsed by Emily's List at some point in their careers, though given Butler okay'd them not endorsing Kyrsten Sinema next year, curious to see if they have any interactions in the coming months as Butler when she's sworn in tomorrow will become the first sitting senator to publicly state she does not support Sinema for reelection, albeit before she was a senator.  She also has long ties to the labor community at a time when the labor movement is having its most vocal moment in a generation.

The logic for Newsom was pretty simple here.  It was clear he wanted to honor both of his public promises-to nominate a Black woman to the US Senate and to not nominate someone who would run for the seat.  It's not entirely clear if Butler will run for the seat (more on that in a second), but appointing her rather than someone like Barbara Lee (who was already running) or other prominent Black women in public office in California who might want to run (Secretary of State Shirley Weber, San Francisco Mayor London Breed) is probably his best insurance policy that he kept both of those promises.  Given her position on Harris's staff, it's likely that she is a designee in the way that Ted Kaufman or Paul Kirk were-someone who could start from Day 1 in office, but likely isn't there for a long time.

What Butler, who is much younger than Kaufman or Kirk were when they took their seats, gets out of this is unknown (other than of course being a member of the world's most exclusive club for a year).  In her mid-40's, Butler could run for the seat-she has the fundraising network that could be valuable in such a scenario, and as a California senator will get lots of free media in the coming days as she starts to do a roll out to a press eager to get to know her.  But she'll start with a huge deficit in the polls & in fundraising to Katie Porter and especially Adam Schiff in the most expensive state in the nation.  My gut says that she's using this not for the US Senate, but for a different job.  Given her fundraising acumen & connections to the labor moment, combined with the gravitas of being a US Senator, she'd be an ideal choice for a second-term Biden cabinet position (perhaps Labor or Commerce Secretary or even the first female Chief of Staff).  If Biden wanted to give Harris a leg-up in 2028 without publicly endorsing her, he could do so by putting Butler in charge of the DNC during a hypothetical second term.  These are all pretty plumb options for her, should she forego a Senate run.

We'll talk a little bit more about what would happen to the race if she did enter later this week, but to close out today, let's talk about where the race if she doesn't run...principally, that Rep. Barbara Lee is screwed.  Lee had to do something to change the course of her campaign-her run was going nowhere, and the Senate appointment would've been a wild card situation that might've changed the trajectory of her race.  Without it, though, it's hard to see her winning path.  The CBC still is behind her; Rep. Ayanna Pressley rather cattily tweeted earlier today "I look forward to your partnership & to having two incredible Black women serve consecutively when we elect Barbara Lee as the next Senator from California," a rather pointed congratulations given Butler hasn't yet said her reelection plans.  But Lee is running out of money, is polling a distant third to Porter & Schiff, and it's hard to see how she gets an about-face here...especially if Butler runs taking away more of the oxygen in the race.  Butler's still a wild card, and could well win in 2024 if she runs...but it's hard to see how Lee does at this point.