All right-it's Halloween today, but what's scarier than ghosts & ghouls? Not voting (not going to apologize for that corny joke cause it's true). This isn't a federal election year, so we aren't doing our full state-by-state elections guide where I predict who will win every race (those take weeks to make, and while I'm proud of them, they are a once-every-two-years article because that's a lot of time investment). But I wanted to make sure you went into November 7th with a guide of what to look for, and understand both the most important races on both sides, and which races will be serving as tea leaves as we head into 2024, where control of the White House and both houses of Congress are at stake. With the exception of the first entry in our list below, I won't be making predictions, but know that control for these races (especially #2 and #4) are critically important for the future of fair elections, women's rights, and will be used as the last barometer of what to expect in 2024, so if you're living in these jurisdictions, get your voting plan in place!
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| Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) |
The technical headline of the night is going to be the gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi. These are the only contests that the major news networks normally focus on, and they come a few weeks after the Republicans did very well in Louisiana, picking up the governor's mansion there as expected (but by a larger margin than most assumed). In both these states, the incumbent governor is running for reelection, and mildly favored. In Kentucky, despite the state's ruby-red hue, Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has led in all public polling (though that has been limited compared to past matchups), and is expected to beat Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R), though the state's strong conservative lean mean that's not a guarantee until they count the ballots. In Mississippi, another red state, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has struggled to put the contest away against Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). Reeves was heavily criticized for mishandling the Jackson Water Crisis, which could lead to that area being more inclined to turnout for Presley in a non-presidential election. Public polling shows Reeves leading, but enough undecided that it may be a question if either candidate can get to 50% with independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray on the ballot; Gray, it has to be said is on the ballot but withdrew from the race & endorsed Presley, so her support would only matter in a genuinely tight election. My gut says both incumbents win-I'm not making predictions in the other races, but my guess is Beshear & Reeves both get second terms.
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| Susanna Gibson (D-VA) |
Those are the headline races...the next three are the races that will actually give us some tea leaves for 2024 (if either Beshear or Reeves lose, that will also count as tea leaves, but I don't think they will so I'm not factoring that into this contest). In Virginia, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is hoping to secure a trifecta two years after an impressive showing as governor. Right now, the Republicans have the General Assembly and the Democrats have the State Senate, but both by narrow margins. Each side has served as a microcosm for the 2024 election, with Democrats running on abortion and Republicans running on education. For the State Senate, according to analysis I've perused, we're looking at roughly five races (the 16th, 17th, 24th, 25th, & 31st districts), deciding the majority-assuming no other seats go against conventional wisdom, the Democrats would need two of these seats to hold on, while the Republicans would need four thanks to Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears serving as a tiebreaker. In the General Assembly, the tossup seats are considered to be the 20th, 21st, 30th, 57th, 65th, 82nd, 89th, & 97th. One of these races, the 57th, has attracted national attention as a result of Democrat Susanna Gibson's appearances on an adult film website (Youngkin won this district in 2021, but the Democratic congressional candidate won it in 2022), with both sides running largely on Gibson's appearance on the site. Whichever side gets a win here will have huge bragging rights (and an earned sense of confidence headed into next year).
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| Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
One of the most consequential elections that will be happening next week will be in Ohio. The state has been trending red, but we've seen that ballot initiatives are frequently impervious to politics (someone will apparently vote for a minimum wage increase but then elect a politician who wants to overturn that minimum wage increase...voters are odd). Ohio Republicans tried in August to overturn the state requirement that would mean that a constitutional amendment would need just 50% to pass, but it failed miserably, and they are now in a situation where two progressive ballot initiatives are on the ballot: one to legalize recreational marijuana use and a second to legalize abortion in the state. Polling currently shows both overwhelmingly being passed. This will obviously mean (is polls are right) that Ohio women will have access to reproductive rights headed into 2024, but it also portends two big opportunities for progressives next year. First, it'll be critical to watch the voting in this race for Sherrod Brown, who will need to ensure that virtually all of the "Yes" vote in this initiative will be on his side next year if he has a shot at a fourth term. Second, there is an amendment requiring an independent redistricting commission to go on the ballot next year-this will be a good road map for how to get the signatures. If that initiative passes in 2024, there's a decent chance that the House Democrats in Ohio would gain several seats (and they'd make enormous gains in the state legislatures, as all three maps are heavily gerrymandered to favor the GOP) in 2026.
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| Judge Dan McCaffery (D-PA) |
There is no more important swing state on the map in 2024 than Pennsylvania, and we'll get a first round look at what that'll look like next week in a critical Supreme Court race. The current balance of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is 4D-2R, with one vacancy of a Democratic justice (Max Baer, who died in September 2022). The Republicans have nominated Montgomery County Judge Carolyn Carluccio while the Democrats have backed Superior Court Judge Dan McCaffery. Though this won't decide the balance of the court (Democrats will hold either way), it will serve as a proxy battle for 2024, as the winning side will undoubtedly proclaim they are the favorites to win the state next year (and with that, the White House) if their candidate gets across the finish line. This seat is a ten-year term, as well, so whomever wins this will have jurisdiction during the 2022 redistricting cycle (it always pays to look ahead). Public polling in the race has been pretty much nonexistent (the only poll I can find is a Republican partisan poll that showed McCaffery up, but with too many undecideds to read much into it), and fundraising has been even between the two if you count outside spending, so watch this one closely on election night as both sides want to get a win here for peace of mind going into next year.
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| President Biden meeting with key Black political leaders |
There has been a lot of scuttle in recent months about the lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden's reelection amongst Black and Latino voters. Polling has shown the biggest gaps in his approval ratings and his head-to-head matchups with Donald Trump driven by a loss in support among Latino & Black voters, particularly those voters without college educations (his numbers among college-educated Latino & Black voters remain extremely strong). This was partially backed up a few weeks ago when Democrats dramatically underperformed in Louisiana's statewide elections, particularly among Black voters. However, most special elections in the past two years (including the midterms) didn't show the underwhelming negatives that Democrats have seen in Biden's numbers. Though these are not apples-to-oranges (it's possible, if not probable, that Joe Biden is underperforming a Generic Democrat in voters' eyes), next Tuesday will have the last real preview before 2024 voting begins of what Democrats need to do to ensure that Black & Latino voters, the bedrock of their support, are turning out. Elections in Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, especially (all electorates with more than 15% of the voting population being Black/Latino, and in Virginia's case over 30%) will give us a decent read of if this is an issue with polling or an issue for Biden.
2 comments:
Your content on so many topics is informative, thorough, and wonderful to read! I don't know how you find the time to write so much...unless this is your full-time job?
No, this is just a labor of love (and a good outlet for talking politics without having to make all of my friends learn the names of every sitting senator). Thank you so much!
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