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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
In fact, you could argue there's only two seats that the Democrats are at least somewhat interested in (or promoting serious candidates for) flipping: Florida & Texas. Both of these states feature House members that were first-elected in 2018: Colin Allred (TX), currently in his third term in office, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who won in 2018 but ended up losing in 2020 as southern Florida turned out much more conservative than initially expected.
Both of these two have something else in common-they both beat incumbents to win their seats in Congress. Allred defeated 11-term Rep. Pete Sessions in his seat in the Dallas suburbs, a sign of the changing demographics of that district (Sessions soon moved, and now serves alongside Allred in the House, something of a rarity for the lower chamber). Mucarsel-Powell was able to ride the 2018 blue wave hard enough (and the "we need a check on Trump" push tough enough) to best two-term Rep. Carlos Curbelo in 2018.
Therefore, if they were to win in 2024, they would join a pretty elite group of senators-the rare double "giant slayers" of the body, who had to defeat an incumbent member of the House and in the Senate in order to win their office. This is increasingly rare with the reduction of ticket-splitting, where parties will oftentimes end up handing off their seats after a retirement rather than having their incumbents, who are already tough to beat to begin with (they already proved they can win, after all) go home defeated. In fact, if you look at the current Senate, only four incumbents can boast the claim that they defeated a House and a Senate incumbent to get their job, and two of them are retiring (all the more reason that we should have some new members?...It's up to you, Texas and Florida). Here's a look at these four, and how they got that distinction:
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| Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) |
House Race: In 1982, Carper was the sitting State Treasurer of Delaware, then considerably more Republican that it is now (a very specific type of ultra-wealthy, white Republican was generally who was elected in the state). Rep. Thomas Evans (R) was such a man, and was in his third term in office when Democrats, particularly Sen. Joe Biden, pushed for Carper to run for the seat. Carper was leading in polls, but some dirty campaign tactics (Evans' starting a false abuse charge against Carper), threatened to derail him until it came out that Evans' campaign was one of the sources of the false charges, allowing Carper to win.
Senate Race: Carper ran against longtime incumbent Bill Roth in 2000, and probably would have struggled in most years. Delaware at the time liked both men, but Roth was getting on in years and stumbled during the race (literally), and was viewed as too old and frail to continue on in the seat, so Carper won relatively easily.
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Evans lost by the closer margin (six points to Roth's 12), but it's hard to say. In a lot of ways Carper lucked out in 2000 as Roth's age gave voters in Delaware an easy out (Roth, would he have been elected, wouldn't have lived through his term as he died in 2003). Had he retired as many Republicans wanted him to do at the time and stepped aside for Rep. Mike Castle, another popular Republican closer to Carper's age, that would have been a truer battle.
Any Other Giant-Slaying?: No. Carper was also the Governor of Delaware in addition to the offices listed above, but I can't find any other incumbents he's defeated. Still, he's one of the most successful politicians in the country, having held public office continuously for over 40 years, and given he's retiring next year, will leave office totally undefeated.
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| Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) |
House Race: One of the things that sort of sets you apart as being a two-time giant slayer is there has to actually be beatable incumbents two cycles in a row. It's worth noting that none of the sitting senators who have pulled off this dual accomplishment did it with a primary, and so some of these states it's perhaps more interesting in hindsight that there were incumbents of the other party to defeat in the first place. This is certainly true of Louisiana, a state we think of as ruby red but once had a relatively vibrant Democratic bench. Bill Cassidy was one of the main guys to take down the last legs of that bench, starting with Don Cazayoux in 2008. Cazayoux had grabbed a surprise special election win in 2008 (a harbinger of the coming wave for the Democrats), and would have been fine in 2010 were it not for State Rep. Michael Jackson running as an independent, in the race. Jackson ran to Cazayoux's left, and his 36,000 votes were more than enough to make up the difference in the race even in 2010, but with him in the contest Cassidy pulled off the win over Cazayoux.
Senate Race: Louisiana's last statewide Democrat in federal office was Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu had managed to make it through a multitude of scrapes before, but in 2014 she had to deal with Obamacare at the ballot, which was wildly unpopular in her home state and which she had voted to approve. Landrieu managed to at least make it to a runoff in 2014, but when December came, she (like so many Democratic incumbents in 2014) got ousted by a Republican. Amusingly enough, Cassidy had been (like many Republicans in Louisiana) a former Democrat and even contributed to Landrieu's 2002 bid (something he likened to a "youthful indiscretion" in his campaign).
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: The Cazayoux election was closer (8-points to Landrieu's 11), and probably the bigger accomplishment. Like Carper, Cassidy got in in part because of luck; subtract Jackson from that race, and it's possible that even in the 2010 landslides he loses to Cazayoux as Louisiana likes their incumbents, however short-lived they may be. Landrieu was a major player while Cazayoux was an asterisk by comparison, but Cazayoux probably could have survived at least until 2014/2016 if it weren't for Jackson.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: No. While Cassidy served in the State Senate prior to his tenure in the House, he didn't have to defeat an incumbent to get there.
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| Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
House Race: Duckworth, quite frankly, is that rare class of politician who is better at the job than being an actual candidate. That was clear in 2006 when she actually lost what is (to date) the closest race of her career. Six years later, she was taking no chances when she challenged Rep. Joe Walsh in the newly redrawn 8th district, which was considerably bluer than her initial run in 2006. She easily dispatched Walsh, one of the more bombastic members of the 2010 class and someone who only beat Melissa Bean two years earlier thanks to the presence of a Green Party candidate on the ballot (Walsh has since had a total about-face, and is the rare, very real Never Trump Republican). Still, though, a win's a win, and Duckworth used the position as a quick springboard to...
Senate Race: ...a race against Mark Kirk. Kirk's initial presence in the Senate was due to a variety of factors-Alexi Giannoulias had underperformed on the trail, the ACA was wildly unpopular, and Democrats got a tad complacent during the Obama midterms. In 2016, though, Kirk was running against Duckworth in an environment that made ticket-splitting rare (no state split its ticket between Senate and POTUS's parties in 2016), and had to deal with Donald Trump losing badly in Illinois. There was no way he'd win, and with Dick Durbin clearing the way for his protégée, arguably the biggest accomplishment for Duckworth in 2016 was not having a tough primary against Robin Kelly.
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Duckworth's an impressive senator and has done well with her time in office so far, but let's be clear here-while beating sitting members of the House & Senate are impressive tasks, Walsh & Kirk were about as vulnerable as you can get for an elected incumbent in Congress, and neither was a "big" accomplishment. That said, she beat Walsh by less, so let's go with that.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: Like I said, Duckworth's only truly tough race was 2006, which she lost to Peter Roskam. However, it appears she'll get the last laugh there, as Duckworth is now a sitting US Senator, and Roskam ended up losing to Sean Casten in 2018.
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| Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) |
House Race: Two years after two brutal defeats (first in the Democratic Primary for governor, then as the general election lieutenant governor candidate), Stabenow saw an opportunity to rebound politically by making a play against Rep. Dick Chrysler, one of the dozens of Republicans who won blue seats during the Republican Revolution of 1994. Stabenow was successful (Chrysler had held longtime Rep. Bob Carr to a tight race in 1992, so it's not really fair to call him a one-term wonder, but his shellacking from Stabenow proves he wasn't going to last long), and quickly regained her status as a "rising star" in the Michigan Democratic Party.
Senate Race: She cemented her place as a star four years later when she bested Sen. Spencer Abraham in the 2000 elections, which while remembered as being close for the Senate, were blowouts when it came to the actual Senate (five incumbent Republicans lost reelection that year, as well as one Democrat, making it one of the worst years for incumbents in recent memory for the Senate).
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Abraham for sure. While neither of these were walks in the park, Abraham was a Republican fixture that would go on to serve as Secretary of Energy under President Bush, while Chrysler was forgettable as a candidate.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: I think so. Data this far back is hard to find for state legislative races, but it looks like Stabenow did defeat Tom Holcomb in 1978 in a primary for the State House according to Political Graveyard. I can't find any data regarding her time on the Ingham County Board of Commissioners, but she definitely was running for an open seat when she was elected to the State Senate. Stabenow is one of only two women (the other being Olympia Snowe) to have been elected to serve in both houses of the state legislatures, as well as both houses of Congress. Interestingly enough, Stabenow's protégée (State Sen. Dianne Byrum) would lose her House seat in 2000 to Rep. Mike Bishop by only 111 votes. Were she to have won, it's entirely possible that Byrum, rather than Gary Peters, would be serving alongside Stabenow right now in Congress, and could be the third woman on that list.
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