The Political Fallout of the Trump Indictments

Donald Trump this past week was indicted on a four-count indictment from Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith.  Between the indictments in New York City (related to falsifying business records in connection to his alleged affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels), federal prosecution over his mishandling of classified documents, and these new charges from Smith, Trump now faces a grand total of 78 indictments, which could grow if the investigations over Trump's potential tampering in the 2020 presidential election/certification in Georgia yields additional charges, which they are expected to do.  The word "unprecedented" has lost all meaning when you talk about Trump, but it needs to be said-this is unprecedented.

The biggest question mark about all of this is Trump's campaign for the White House.  Most of the time when a politician is facing this type of legal ramifications, which almost certainly will result in at least some prison time (particularly in the cases brought forth by Smith this past week), you're talking about a politician who has already resigned or is out of office, but Trump (while he holds no current political office) is the frontrunner in all public polling for the Republican nomination for president in 2024.  This sets up a unique situation where Trump could be indicted before the election or even running a presidential campaign from prison.

Weirdly, Trump is not the first candidate to face the potential of running a campaign from jail.  In 1920, Eugene V. Debs was the Socialist candidate for president, getting 3.4 percent of the popular vote (a respectable number for a third party candidate).  He was also in jail, after being charged with sedition for speaking out against President Wilson's military draft during World War I.  His sentence was eventually commuted by the man who beat him in the 1920 election (President Harding), but he did run his campaign from prison, though given his overwhelming loss, neither Donald Trump nor the Republican Party seems eager to emulate him.

So the question on my mind (and everyone's mind) is what happens if Trump is convicted.  I think at this point it's pretty clear that Donald Trump has no intention of dropping out, even if in any sane world he would surely be getting calls from all corners of the political landscape (not to mention the media!) to drop his race.  Trump also has a following in the Republican Party that is impossible to overturn as long as he's in the race, and honestly...it feels like that core is so far immovable if he's a candidate.  As a result, the only way it seems like he might drop out is either through a plea deal (which I honestly think left the station a while ago) or if he's jailed.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

But there are issues with that in almost every junction.  For starters, the Republican also-rans right now are kind of milquetoast.  His chief opponent continues to be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is now polling below 15% after one of the worst presidential campaigns I can remember seeing in my 30+ years of following primary season.  DeSantis, quite frankly, appears easier to beat than Trump if I'm Biden's campaign team.  Other Republican candidates have gained some traction (Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Tim Scott), and would be formidable against the (also unpopular) Biden, but none of them have any appeal to the MAGA crowds.  I think if Trump were to drop out tomorrow, quite frankly, his replacement would be someone who isn't in the race.  People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Tommy Tuberville, or one of Trump's children honestly have more appeal to the MAGA wing than any announced candidate, and I wouldn't be stunned if one of them tried to take Trump's thunder.  But the window for these people to enter or register in the Republican Primaries will eventually close; this honestly has to be what people like DeSantis & Haley are hoping for-that they are able to pick up the scraps without shinier options entering the race late.

Once the primaries, start, though, these rules get far more complicated.  Republican delegates at the conventions are bound to vote for the results of their states, so the more delegates that Trump can rack up, the more likely he gets the nomination even if he were charged.  If the court cases were to be in, say, May or June of 2024, based on current public polling Trump would already have the delegates to win the nomination.  After the convention, it becomes even harder-the Republican Party can overturn the convention results, but it takes time, and by early-to-mid September, ballots will start going out with the nominee's name on it.  At that point, changing from, say, Trump to someone like Nikki Haley would be impossible, because they'd risk splitting their support on the ballots that people had already sent in (and can't change).  Even if Trump had 2-3% of the vote, that'd be more than enough to make a win for Haley in Pennsylvania or Nevada impossible.

All of these things feel like the stuff of political fan-fiction, but they're not because of three hard truths.  First, Joe Biden is not popular right now, and while he will become more popular the closer we get to the election (and it becomes clear he's the Democrats' only option), Trump will remain a plausible option to win the White House as long as his Republican polling stays sound and he doesn't collapse in general election polling-there are no indications that will happen.  Two, Donald Trump will stay in this race as long as possible because it is the best insurance policy he has at this point that he won't go to jail.  Trump is pushing all of his fellow Republican nominees to commit to pardon him, but on some level he knows this is only a campaign promise-if they are the nominee or the president, there's nothing really holding them to that promise when they get to the White House.  Indeed, it might behoove them to keep a potential future challenger in jail (banana republic stuff, but that's where we are).

And third, Donald Trump is the best MAGA guarantee Republicans have right now.  Look at the 2018 & 2022 elections (not to mention virtually every special election)-the biggest thing they have in common is that Trump's biggest supporters don't show up when he's not on the ballot.  This might not happen in 2024, but if he's not on the ballot, and his supporters feel he was cheated out of the contest, he could say "don't vote."  It's one of the main reasons that Republicans are scared to attack him in the primary-he's been more than willing to risk the Republicans throwing away a contest to the Democrats if it meant he didn't get his way.  Even if, say, 5-10% of Republican voters were to stay home or write-in Trump's name, it would be devastating for the party's actual nominee.  Joe Biden would not only win, he'd probably add Texas, Florida, & North Carolina to his electoral college count, and he'd win back a federal trifecta.  Republicans are in a weird position where Trump is general election anathema, but not so much that it's turning off the core of their party (because he still polls decently against Biden)...but if they wait too long, they're going to be stuck with him, and the incredibly real possibility of having to try to convince Biden 2020 voters to elect a convict.