The State of the Governors

In a month full of "State of..." articles where we've been counting down the biggest races of the next two years, we are now reaching the category where "the next two years" needs to apply.  Unlike federal contests, governor's races happen every year, and under a weird cadence (each state kind of has its own reasons, in many cases when it entered the union, as to why they might have governor's races in a specific year).  Governor's races are also not a big deal in presidential years-only 11 states have theirs during presidential years, and only 3 states have theirs the year before a presidential year, so we're going to curtail this down to just five contests to rank, as not only are there less than last year's midterms, there's honestly less competitive contests.  As a reminder, this is list that ranks based on partisan flipping, so the #1 seat is the contest I think is most likely to switch partisan hands (in this case, I think it's a guarantee).

Honorable Mention: There's not really a lot of honorable mentions.  In the old days, Missouri, Montana, & Indiana would occasionally elect Democratic governors (Montana did it as recently as 2016), but in an era of less ticket-splitting, I think this is unlikely.  Gov. Tate Reeves in Mississippi has been uniquely awful (particularly given the water crisis the state went through), but the state is so red that even a quality candidate like Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (a second cousin of Elvis Presley) doesn't have much of a chance even though he'll do respectably.  As a result, if any of these contests even become competitive it'll be a major achievement.

Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT)

5. Vermont

The big question for our numbers 4 & 5 here are not whether or not they'll be competitive-it's whether or not the incumbent will run again.  Particularly in Vermont, this is the only question to ask.  New England has a history (in the past 30 years) of voting for Democrats on a federal-level but falling for Republican governors, and that's been the story of Vermont the past eight years, the country's most liberal state consistently reelecting moderate Gov. Phil Scott (in literally any other state, he'd be a Democrat).  If Scott runs again, there's no contest here-he'll win a fifth term (Vermont & New Hampshire have two-year terms for their governors).  If he doesn't, this becomes a probable flip with Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, Attorney General Charity Clark, & State Auditor Doug Hoffer all waiting patiently for the chance at this race.

Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D-NH)

4. New Hampshire

New Hampshire is slightly higher for a trio of reasons.  First, I think it's more likely that Gov. Chris Sununu (who has now foregone two federal races he was expected to get in, making me wonder if he's just done with politics) retires than Scott.  Secondly, Sununu is more conservative than Scott, particularly on abortion, and is more vulnerable to be taken down even though he'd be a strong favorite running for another term.  And third, the Democrats already have their A-Team in the race.  New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington has declared she's in, and Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has formed an exploratory committee. If Sununu retires, it might attract more candidates (specifically Rep. Chris Pappas), but even with him in the race the Democrats are putting up top tier options...though I do think Warmington & Craig are largely assuming he'll retire, and this is a chance to get a head-start on Pappas.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY)

3. Kentucky

The top three races are all much more naturally competitive, or at least more likely to flip, than the other two that are really contingent on some retirements.  Like the Senate, most of the flip opportunities this cycle are for Republicans taking out Democrats.  In third we have Kentucky, where Gov. Andy Beshear is running for reelection.  Beshear has actually maintained extremely strong popularity ratings all through his term in office, and in a different era he'd be a cinch for reelection.  However, in a world where Trump loyalty for Republicans matters more than anything, Beshear is running as a Democrat in a very red state, and he's doing so against Attorney General Daniel Cameron, one of Mitch McConnell's protégées (he went to school on a McConnell scholarship, and was his legal counsel during his time as Majority Leader), and with McConnell clearly in legacy mode right now (I suspect he'll retire in 2026), this appears to be a contest that he genuinely cares about winning.  Expect a tight race, even if Beshear is technically the favorite.

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC)

2. North Carolina

North Carolina is one slot higher not necessarily because it's much more competitive (I think both Kentucky & North Carolina are pretty much tossup races), but because it's an open seat whereas Beshear is still a well-liked incumbent.  Gov. Roy Cooper is a retiring Democrat, and even in a pink/purple state, eight years of one party would normally give the other side the upper-hand in a battle, but Republicans may have stretched themselves too thin with their nominee.  Lt Gov. Mark Robinson (R) is maybe the most out-of-mainstream statewide elected politician running for major office in 2024 (I say that with an asterisk because it is Trump's GOP, but Robinson's views are nuts).  He has publicly been very antisemitic (he once said Black Panther was made by "agnostic Jews and satanic Marxists"), called the coronavirus a "globalist conspiracy to defeat Donald Trump" and said he didn't believe Paul Pelosi was attacked in 2022.  He has publicly mocked the Parkland survivors as "spoiled, know it all children" and has called LGBTQ+ people "filth" and "maggots."  Yes, this is a man running for governor in a state that Donald Trump won by less than 2-points in 2020.  The Democrats have wisely chosen to nominate their highest-ranking official, moderate Attorney General Josh Stein (D) who will surely be using all of those public comments from Robinson to pull a Josh Shapiro in NC and win a third consecutive term for his party.

Attorney General Jeff Landry (R-LA)

1. Louisiana

Louisiana is, similar to the West Virginia Senate race, a foregone conclusion-it's going to flip.  The Democrats were kind of miraculous in that they got to win this seat in the first place for eight years.  Gov. John Bel Edwards is one of the last remaining relics of a time when the South would occasionally flirt with Democratic governors, and he won in 2015 against Sen. David Vitter largely due to seemingly forgotten (Vitter had won a Senate term since them) stories about Vitter frequenting sex workers.  With Edwards term-limited, it seems certain that Attorney General Jeff Landry will beat a host of lesser-known Republicans and Democrat Shawn Wilson, a former state Secretary of Transportation.  Edwards, a conservative Democrat, is a good lesson of what winning even 1-2 terms can do for a state from a progressive perspective though.  He helped remove anti-gay laws, enacted Medicaid expansion, helped reduce sentencing for non-violent criminal offenders, used a court case to get African-Americans' a second congressional seat in the state, and got a raise in teacher pay for the first time in a decade.  I'm just saying Mississippi, Missouri, Indiana...you all would be better off if you occasionally punished Republicans by showing a Democrat can be your governor sometimes...