Why is the NRSC Courting Kari Lake?

Kari Lake (R-AZ)

Kari Lake is one of the more fascinating candidates of 2022.  Lake ran for Governor of Arizona, and her campaign was very much in-line with what Donald Trump's was in 2016.  Lake came in, clearly a dynamic figure (a former news anchor, she knows how to use a teleprompter and is a very gifted public speaker, even if you don't agree with what she's saying), and managed to upend the Arizona Governor's race.  She got State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, the strongest candidate the Republicans had to run, to completely skip the race, and she bested Arizona Board of Regents Member Karrin Taylor Robson, despite Robson having the backing of Mike Pence, Doug Ducey, & Chris Christie (far more power brokers than Lake, though she did come with Donald Trump's seal of approval which turned out to be critical in the primary).  Lake ran most of the contest ahead of Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who refused to debate Lake, publicly not wanting to engage with Lake, who is a proponent of conspiracy theories, but some (including me) speculated that Hobbs, who is not a great public speaker, didn't want to take on Lake in a setting where she'd almost certainly lose on aesthetics.  Going into election night in 2022, most pundits, including me, assumed that Lake would be elected Arizona's governor, putting an election conspiracy theorist in charge of possibly the most important swing state in 2022.

As it turns out, I was wrong, and the political world was shocked when Arizona gave the job to Hobbs, a mild-mannered longtime public servant who took one of the shocks in a night where Democrats exceeded virtually every expectation.  Surprises happen all the time in politics without anything nefarious being attributed to them, something Lake, an avid MAGA-supporter, should know looking at 2016.  But instead of graciously bowing out, which most of her fellow Republicans did after losing in 2022 (despite an environment where they thought they'd win), Lake has followed Donald Trump's playbook.  She has doubled-down, insisting (like Trump) that she won the election were it not for "voter fraud," and as a result claims she will eventually become governor at some point (and uses that to raise funds from gullible Republicans).  Hobbs, like Joe Biden, has largely ignored this and gotten about being the actual governor, but Lake's behavior feels like it would be bad form for her future prospects.  After all, this isn't working for Trump, and generally denying your election was fair is not seen kindly by the public (this isn't just on one side-Stacey Abrams hurt her chances further in 2022 by not conceding right away in 2018 when it was clear she'd lost).

What sets Lake apart, though, is that it seems evident by recent public outings she's made to Washington, including meetings with the NRSC, that she's entertaining a Senate run.  Lake so far has demurred, simply stating that she's looking into it, but in my experience you don't meet with the NRSC unless you are actually considering a run, and while there's no guarantees that she'd actually make it into the race (Chris Sununu & Mitch Daniels are recent examples of candidates whom the NRSC courted publicly but who declined runs for the Senate), it means that she's considering it, and more importantly, that the powers-that-be are interested in her candidacy.

Jeanne Shaheen & Susan Collins prove there are
second acts in politics

Losing candidates run for office all the time, and while it's not always a recipe for success, losing once, especially in a close election, is hardly a death knell for your future electoral prospects.  Jeanne Shaheen, John Thune, Susan Collins, Jon Ossoff, Dan Sullivan, Sheldon Whitehouse, & Maria Cantwell are all across the political spectrum in terms of their politics, but they all have one thing in common-they lost a major race for public office immediately before winning their current Senate seats.  Lake wouldn't be alone if she were to run and win.

But it is noteworthy that Lake is being courted at all, given both that she lost a high-profile race that she was expected to win and that she has spent most of the past few months making herself less attractive to swing voters by going even further right.  If you look at all of those senators I just mentioned, a couple lost in primaries (Whitehouse & Sullivan), others lost tossup races (Collins, Shaheen, & Thune), and two lost House races in much different terrain than they'd run statewide in (Cantwell & Ossoff).  None arguably botched a race as badly as Lake did, which makes pursuing her unusual.

I suspect one of the reasons that Lake is being courted, quite frankly, is that swing state Republicans are increasingly struggling in terms of their bench.  While Republicans in red states that want a chance to take out a Democrat (specifically Montana, Ohio, & West Virginia) are lining up around the block to get a promotion in a presidential year, it says a lot about the Republicans' prospects against Joe Biden next year that no one wants to run against him in swing states.  Fred Upton & Candice Miller quickly left Republicans with (at best) a B-team recruit in Michigan.  Nevada Republicans don't appear to have any major candidate on-deck to take on Jacky Rosen despite coming close there in 2022.  And Pennsylvania Republicans are also publicly courting someone who lost in 2022, Dave McCormick, to run despite him having lost to Dr. Oz in 2022 (hardly a good reference).

This might be a pathetic excuse, but McCormick could point to why the NRSC met with Lake in the first place.  Kathy Barnette & Doug Mastriano, arguably the two worst Pennsylvania Republican options for 2024, have both had their names bandied as potential candidates in 2024, which would be a disaster for the PA GOP, particularly given the state's importance as a swing seat in next year's presidential election (it's very difficult for the GOP to take the White House without Pennsylvania).  McCormick is better than either of these two even if he won't win, as he'll do less damage.  Lake's in a different situation (the big question remains if Kyrsten Sinema, not Kari Lake, runs in this race as she's the most important component of this equation) in terms of her eventual chances, but given that Blake Masters, who ran maybe the worst Senate campaign of 2022, is also publicly considering this race...perhaps the NRSC would like the best of a bad situation, as Lake's a better option than Masters even if both show just how dire statewide races have gotten for Republicans in swing states.