Well, I will be the first to admit that I didn't plan on writing an article today about the first day of the new Congress, but, well, when you get a once-in-a-century moment from the Republican Party, you can't skip over it. So we're doing a rare January "5 Thoughts" article about the incredible events of today, with a focus on the House of Representatives.
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| House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) |
It's hard to put into words how bad today was for Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican Leader that couldn't. McCarthy has been the Republican Leader of the House since 2019, and was the House Majority Leader as early as 2014. When John Boehner stepped aside in 2015, it was initially assumed that Kevin McCarthy would succeed him, but McCarthy blew it, in part due to ill-timed comments about Hillary Clinton, and Paul Ryan took the job. This year, he went from surefire Speaker to cautiously the favorite when Republicans barely won the House majority.
The 2015 loss to Ryan, the 2022 midterms failure...none of it compared to today though. McCarthy became the first House leader in 100 years (literally, it's been a century) to have to go to a second ballot...and then a third. Due to a contingency of twenty Republicans (and a unified House Democratic Party), McCarthy couldn't get close to 218, and by the third ballot had actually lost one of his supporters. To say this is unprecedented is an understatement. While three recent Speakers were unable to win 218 votes (Newt Gingrich in 1996, John Boehner in 2014, and Nancy Pelosi in 2020), none of them had to worry about a second ballot due to openings/absences in the House at the time. McCarthy's failure is a total blackmark on his record, and while he may become Speaker still, it's unlikely he'll ever escape this blemish.
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| McCarthy with outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi |
Anyone speaking with confidence right now should check themselves-we are in uncharted territory. It's worth noting that only one Republican changed their minds (Florida Rep. Byron Donalds), going from McCarthy to Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, who became the consensus candidate of the anti-McCarthy crowd (even though Jordan, at least publicly, has been backing McCarthy and voted for him three times today). The question, though, is who breaks first. The Republicans that aren't backing McCarthy don't appear to be uniform-some of them waited until today to announce, and indicated in public statements that committee assignments might sway them (Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, specifically, falls into this camp). Others have bet so hard against McCarthy (like Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Andy Biggs of Arizona) it's hard to imagine a way that McCarthy can get them on his side.
McCarthy's problem is that he has very little room for error-he needs at least 16 of the 20 Republicans who didn't back him to support his candidacy, and that's a very tall order at this point. McCarthy, though, also knows this is the end of the line for him-after losing his bid for the Speaker's gavel in 2015, it's unlikely he'll have a third opportunity after this. McCarthy has given enormous concessions already with little to show for it...what will it take for him to step down? The only option other than winning those 16 Republicans over is to strike some deal with the Democrats, but McCarthy, who famously didn't get along with Nancy Pelosi (certainly not to the degree that John Boehner or George W. Bush or even Mitch McConnell do), has no goodwill with Democratic leadership to rely upon, and more importantly no trust. There are things McCarthy might try to dangle in front of Hakeem Jeffries (I can think specifically of putting into the House rules that the Democrats can pick whomever they want for committees, as McCarthy has publicly stated he wants to get Eric Swalwell, Adam Schiff, & Ilhan Omar off of key House committees), but it's hard to imagine Jeffries going for it...and if he did, it's hard to imagine McCarthy's right wing not being angry about a concession to the Democrats as his first act as Speaker. And every vote that McCarthy can't survive is another vote that people will look elsewhere.
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| Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL) |
If politics in 2023 is frequently related to "vibes" it's hard to deny that one of the winners today was the House Freedom Caucus, specifically the 20 Republicans who showed just how strong (and how surprisingly coordinated) they could be in defying Kevin McCarthy. Led by Reps. Andy Biggs & Matt Gaetz, this contingency showed they are a powerhouse, and going to be a huge headache for whomever leads the House in the coming months. The caucus seemed particularly angry about the recently passed omnibus bill, and seemed to indicate that in September they are willing to use the debt ceiling to go against government spending, likely entitlement programs like Social Security & Medicare.
This is clearly a problem for not just the eventual Speaker, but the Republican Party at large. While they stayed uniformly behind McCarthy today, there's a contingency of Republicans in districts that Joe Biden won (18 in total) who are not going to want to head into 2024 being the party that cut Medicare & Social Security...or the party that shut down the government. I'm curious if the word "discharge petition" becomes more common as the year heads forward in order to counter the House Freedom Caucus. Republican representatives like Brian Fitzpatrick & Don Bacon, for example, might be more willing to go to Jeffries to solve their problems than to McCarthy if the House Freedom Caucus views today as a sign they are running the show, not necessarily switching parties, but using discharge petitions to ensure they don't become DOA in districts that will vote for a Democratic president in 2024.
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| House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) |
The one person who indisputably had a good day today was House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). The newly-elected Democratic leader did something unheard of, becoming the first Democrat since Nancy Pelosi in 2009 to get every single member of his caucus to vote for him as Speaker, and he did it three ballots in a row. This is more impressive than it sounds. Jeffries, as recently as five weeks ago, was still actively courting members of his own caucus to ensure their support going forward. Jeffries, though he has a deeply progressive voting record, has made comments in the past that some members of his caucus, specifically the "Squad," have taken as criticism directed at them. Jeffries, though, actively courted his most progressive members, with Reps. Ilhan Omar (MN), Cori Bush (MO), and Pramila Jayapal (WA) all stating publicly that he had met one-on-one with them several times, and seemed comfortable making sure their viewpoints were heard in the caucus. It paid off today. Jeffries has impossibly large shoes to fill following in Nancy Pelosi (possibly the most gifted Speaker of the House since Henry Clay), but he looked like a tenured statesman compared to the buffoonery on the Republican side of the aisle, and this is a great start as he spend the next two years trying to get the Democrats the majority...and himself a shot at the gavel.
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| Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) |
I was going to write about the Senate as our fifth item today, but while that is important (particularly John Fetterman's swearing in as the 51st senator and Patty Murray becoming the first female President Pro Tempore), the Senate was busines as usual. So I'll end with two House Republicans who had unusually bad first days in the new Congress.
The first is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), the most notable far-right defender of Kevin McCarthy today amidst a sea of people she's usually associated with (like Biggs, Boebert, & Gaetz) who challenged the Republican leader. Greene's calculus appeared sound as recently as yesterday-by giving her support to McCarthy early, she likely would get back her committee seats, and be seen as a key ally for him on major Republican legislation. Now, though, the House Freedom Caucus totally abandoned her, and she's left supporting a guy who knows 1) that she doesn't have the power to help sway that caucus and 2) she's not enough to make him Speaker. If he wins, she can still defy him, but she does so without a crucial contingency of 20 Republicans, and if he doesn't, she stuck by him for nothing. Greene, an outsider who came to Congress out-of-nowhere in 2020, has spent weeks fashioning herself as a potential powerbroker in the next Congress. She leaves today less a firebrand and more an afterthought...
...though not nearly as much as Rep. George Santos (NY). Santos, whom we discussed at length last week, was clearly persona non grata on his first day in office. Dogged by the press, facing multiple criminal investigations (on a local, federal, and even international level), he spent much of the day alone. People watching on C-Span or journalists there in person noted that he was the only member on the House floor not interacting with other members (it seems Rep. Ken Calvert of California introduced himself, and when he realized who Santos was, quickly bolted away). Santos's one shining grace was how much McCarthy would need him to get to 218...but like Greene, he wasn't enough. Though he, like Greene, voted for McCarthy three times, it's hard to understand where he goes forward here. Does he even make it through the next two years (given his criminal investigations, that seems likely), or does he quickly resign if McCarthy loses, given his obvious pariah status? It's hard to imagine he'll have any sort of legislative legacy in the next two years given no one even wants to talk to him.
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