When Will We See More Female Senators?

Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (left) & Jacky Rosen with
Senate Maj. Leader Chuck Schumer

Tomorrow, Georgia will either reelect Raphael Warnock or choose former NFL player Herschel Walker to be their senator.  Regardless of what happens, Democrats are going to be in charge of the Senate for two more years.  This will be a big deal for the long-term legacy of Joe Biden, even if legislation in the next two years will be difficult, bordering on the impossible, for Biden to pass given the road block caused by Kevin McCarthy in the House.  It is likely that Biden will, particularly if Warnock is reelected, get dozens of judges confirmed.  While his judicial legacy for his first term likely won't rival that of Donald Trump's (Trump, of course, got three Supreme Court nominees-Biden would be lucky to get two in his first term), it will be a huge step forward for progressives on the court in retaliation to Trump, particularly coupled with the eight years prior from Barack Obama.

One of the interesting things about the four years that Democrats will be in the majority in the Senate (we'll wait for 2024 until after we know whom Georgia elected, but it will be a steep climb to extend the majority to six years) is that during that time, the number of women in the Democratic caucus has not increased.  Due to a combination of factors that we'll get into in this article, every single one of the Democratic Party's freshmen senators in 2020 & 2022 are men: Mark Kelly, Ben Ray Lujan, John Hickenlooper, Alex Padilla, Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, John Fetterman, & Peter Welch.  This is strange for a party that is both predominantly supported by women (every Democrat in the Senate is there because they won a majority of female voters) and one that has expanded during that time in the House.  It also begs the question-will this change in 2024?

The first thing to acknowledge is why this didn't happen during that time frame.  In 2018, Democrats had two female freshmen senators, Jacky Rosen (NV) & Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).  Both of these women got into the Senate because they beat sitting members of Congress (Dean Heller & Martha McSally, respectively).  This underscores one of the main reason we haven't had a lot of growth for Democratic women in the Senate in recent years-a steep decline in the number of retirements from US Senators, specifically Democratic US Senators.  In the last three cycles, only three Democratic Senators (Tom Udall, Pat Leahy, & Kamala Harris) have either retired or resigned, and in the case of all three, they were replaced by men.  One of the main reasons that women have gained ground in the US House is due to retirements-if senators are not retiring, they either need to challenge them in primaries (which almost never works) or they need to beat incumbents, which is a challenge.

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE)

It's been a particular challenge for female candidates.  In the past two cycles, a disproportionately large amount of Democratic women have gotten close but ultimately missed in such races.  Of the eight races that Democrats lost by less-than-ten-points in 2020 & 2022 (assuming Warnock wins), half of those races featured female challengers: Theresa Greenfield (IA), Sara Gideon (ME), MJ Hegar (TX), & Cheri Beasley (NC).  It's not that the Democrats aren't investing in female candidates (Greenfield & Gideon, in particular, were given heavy support and many thought they would win headed into Election Night), it's that they haven't been able to win victories.

And honestly, looking into 2024, it doesn't appear that likely this number will change much.  The Democrats start out with one of the roughest maps I've ever seen (those losses from Greenfield & Gideon are going to feel particularly painful as we calculate the 2024 math), and so pretty much the only seat that has an opportunity for Democrats to win is Texas, a state where almost all of the major Democratic options are men (the Castro brothers, Colin Allred).  As a result, if Democrats want to increase the number of women in their caucus, they're going to need retirements.

Right now, that number doesn't look high.  One of the candidates that would've been a prime opportunity for a retirement, 78-year-old Angus King, has hinted in recent days he wants to stay on for another term; King would've been a great opportunity for Gideon or Rep. Chellie Pingree to take his place.  Despite a plethora of scandals, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) seems likely to run for another term, and no major Democrat has expressed an interest in challenging him in in the primaries.  If Sens. Tom Carper (DE) or Bernie Sanders (VT) retire (both are of advanced age and there are rumors that they are considering it), their state's At-Large representatives in Congress (Lisa Blunt Rochester & Becca Balint, respectively) would be frontrunners to succeed them, increasing the number of Democratic women in the caucus, but neither has made a firm announcement yet.

In fact, it's possible the number of Democratic women decreases in 2024, and not just because vulnerable incumbents like Tammy Baldwin & Jacky Rosen are facing reelection.  Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is certain to get a challenge from her left, and given the strong performance from Arizona Democrats & the ire she's earned from her own party (she's essentially become a senator without a base), I would imagine Rep. Ruben Gallego has 50/50 odds of besting her in the primary in two years, if not higher.  Sen. Dianne Feinstein, as well, will surely retire given her advanced age & noted health issues.  If she does, she could be replaced by a woman (Mayor London Breed, Reps. Barbara Lee & Katie Porter), but high-profile male politicians, including Rep. Adam Schiff who has a national profile (and whose path to ever become House Speaker effectively closed this past week) would likely run as well.  All-in-all, Democrats may have to wait until 2026 to see the number of women in their Senate caucus grow again.