Why the Republicans Are Abandoning JR Majewski

JR Majewski (R-OH)

If you've read this blog for the past few months, you'll have noticed I've singled out one candidate in particular as emblematic of just how much the Republican Party has fallen, and that person is JR Majewski.  Majewski is perhaps the Republicans' most embarrassing House recruit, and quite frankly, their most embarrassing recruit, period (at least for competitive federal office).  Majewski marched at the Capitol on January 6th, and is an avid supporter of the QAnon conspiracy.  He's so devoted to Donald Trump that he painted a sign in his yard for the former president, and dabbles as an amateur political rapper.  He baselessly called John Podesta, a longtime Democratic aide, a pedophile, and is about as fringe as a candidate can get, while also running for Congress (he would certainly rival Marjorie Taylor Greene as the most controversial member of the House should he be elected).

Majewski, though, appears to have stepped in it in a way that he may not be able to escape.  The Associated Press reported today that Majewski, who has stated publicly that he is an "Air Force combat veteran who served in Afgahinstan," did not, in fact, serve in Afghanistan but instead served in Qatar & Japan.  While he technically is a "combat veteran" under the law (due to designations by President George HW Bush, his service in Qatar would qualify him for that status under federal tax code), he did not actually see combat as Qatar would've been hundreds of miles from any actual fighting done in Iraq or Afghanistan during that time frame.  While Majewski did serve in the Air Force, it's clear based on these reports that he has repeatedly lied about his time in the military, which can have serious implications during campaigns.

Combined with his controversial profile, this news seems to have set off a firestorm in the NRCC, the campaign arm of the House Republicans, who have pulled over $1 million from the campaign trail for Majewski.  This is fascinating for a variety of reasons.  First, it essentially would put Majewski as destitute.  His opponent, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, has 15x as much money on hand as Majewski, so without serious cash expenditures from outside sources, she'll swamp him.  Additionally, Kaptur is a longtime veteran on Capitol Hill, having served in the House since 1983, and sits on the Appropriations committee (giving her probable access to not just DCCC money, but also big name donors in the late stretch of the campaign).  Majewski at this point is likely close-to-broke, and will be campaigning solely on partisanship in a district that went to Donald Trump by 2.8-points.  He might win, but it's unlikely he will with such a recipe.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)

There are several reasons the NRCC could be doing this.  First, their internals could indicate that Majewski is a lost cause, even without the exaggerations about his military background.  He is a difficult sell in this district, particularly against someone like Kaptur who strikes the profile as a consummate professional without appearing hyper-partisan.  It's also possible that the House R's are hoping to cut their losses here.  Kaptur's run might in part be a vanity campaign; should she win, she will become the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress.  In 2024, if there isn't mid-decade redistricting in Ohio, she'd be a heavy underdog (and might even retire once she had the long-serving distinction given she'll be nearly eighty in 2024), and the NRCC could get a more traditional backbencher rather than yet another MTG/Boebert-style problem for the caucus.  Kaptur is unlikely to matter when it comes to the majority math, so keeping her on for two more years shouldn't matter too much.

But Kaptur's victory does pose an eyebrow-raise for me, mostly as someone who has seen the House Democrats' chances rise in the past month post the Dobbs Supreme Court decision.  Currently, there are 226 Biden districts and 209 Trump-won House districts.  As a result, Republicans need to win at least nine districts won by Biden in order to get back the House.  This shouldn't be a problem, as some of those districts feature incumbents like Young Kim & Brian Fitzpatrick who are heavy favorites to succeed.  But obviously, Kaptur winning (even to an embarrassment like Majewski) is still a win even if it's by default.  There are not a lot of Democrats who could plausibly win a Trump seat, but there are a few.  Reps. Kaptur, Mary Peltola (AK-AL), Tom O'Halleran (AZ-2), Cindy Axne (IA-3), Matt Cartwright (PA-8), Jared Golden, as well as non-incumbents Annette Taddeo (FL-27) and Carl Marlinga (MI-10) are the only names that might do it, but it has to be said-if we get to a situation like in 2000 or 2020 (where the split between Democrats & Republicans was less than 10 seats), these seats will start to matter, and in a couple of races (Kaptur, Peltola, Cartwright, & O'Halleran, specifically) recent polling shows signs of optimism for the Democrats.  Majewski has not cost Republicans their majority, but unforced errors like his candidacy continue to put that majority in jeopardy.