Why Beating Trump Isn't About Changing Minds

If the past six years have taught us anything, it's to expect the worst from Donald Trump and to assume even that bar will be crawled under.  But I'll be honest-I didn't quite see the "nuclear secrets in the basement" story coming until Trump himself began to leak the news to the press that the FBI had raided his Mar-a-Lago estate.  What has happened in the wake of that, though, feels pretty predictable.  Democrats have behaved almost entirely above-board.  Attorney General Merrick Garland gave a stern, serious press conference, not embellishing at all, while President Biden & Vice President Harris largely kept silent, not wanting to influence what was happening in their Justice Department (or appear partisan).  Republicans jumped to Trump's defense, trying to condone what increasingly appeared indefensible.  At this point, we don't know a lot, but it's very clear that Trump had confidential, likely top secret, documents illegally housed in his estate in Florida.  What he planned to do with them is genuinely unclear, though the defenses coming from Republicans become increasingly flaccid the further we get into this conversation (everything from "the FBI planted it" to "Trump had already declassified these documents" to "...but Hillary's emails" have been thrown around...none of it really sticking beyond the already allied).

What is clear is a couple of things: one, it seems increasingly probable that Donald Trump will face criminal charges, if not now, then very soon in the future.  Trump is not just facing potential charges related to Garland's investigation (which, if he was charged with all three of the crimes Garland put on the warrant, would lead him to go to jail for a maximum of 33 years, which for the 76-year-old Trump would basically mean life in prison), but also congressional inquiries into his taxes, potential allegations of wire fraud, and the ongoing January 6th investigation, as well as criminal and civil investigations into his business dealings in New York (which, as hard as it is to remember just a few days ago Trump had to plead the fifth in over 400 times, another first for a former president), a defamation suit from writer E. Jean Carroll who alleges that Trump sexually assaulted her, and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, specifically in Georgia.  Trump currently faces an avalanche of civil and criminal litigation that could well take up the next decade of his life, and if charged, the remainder of it.

What's secondly clear is that this does not appear to have hurt his standing with the Republican base, and in fact it seems to have boosted it in some cases.  Trump lambasted the FBI, with many key Republicans following suit, and days later a pro-Trump gunman attacked an FBI office in Cincinnati.  Trump released an arrest warrant with the names of the FBI agents who conducted the search, putting their families at risk, and his Republican loyalists did nothing or remained silent.  What by any traditional measure would be the worst week of Donald Trump's political career has done nothing to assuage his most loyal supporters, both in public office & across America.

It has been obvious for a while that there is no basement on Trump's behavior and what it will do to the hardcore base who worships him like a god in the US.  Even if it turns out that Trump was using this information as leverage against the US government or hoped to be able to use part of it to sell/trade to foreign adversaries (I am very intrigued by Trump apparently taking confidential information about French President Emmanuel Macron, given Vladimir Putin actively tried to sabotage Macron's presidential election earlier this year & Trump's devotion to Putin), I am doubtful that will make a major difference to his supporters.  And honestly, I think we've reached the point where we have to stop caring what they think.

This isn't because they aren't dangerous or don't pose a threat to American democracy, because they do. By now, any Republican short of Liz Cheney has proven that Trump & their reelection > Saving Democracy.  We saw that in Michigan when Peter Meijer made a big to do about how Democrats sabotaged the chances of a "reputable" Republican...and then quickly he endorsed an election denier in the general election.  The only way to win, at this point, is to continue to take the next couple of elections and deny the Republicans a chance to win power until Trump is in jail or the Republicans are tired of using his methods, since they cause them to lose.  No one enjoys losing forever, just ask the Democrats who nominated left-leaning populist in 1980, 1984, & 1988...but then moderated their candidate selection in 1992 when it was clear that an old-school liberal couldn't win.

I didn't think this was possible, but it is looking increasingly plausible that the Democrats will hold the Senate in November, maybe even adding a seat or two, and that while they are not favorites or even tossups for control of the House, their chances at holding a House majority have gone up considerably in the past two weeks based on generic ballot polling and with the passage of a late-push of major legislation that should help President Biden's approval ratings rebound slightly heading into the midterms.  I've said before, but the only way that we beat the Republicans is to win when they aren't expecting it.  Trump actually facing justice would be one of those wins, but it shouldn't be viewed as a political victory-it should be viewed as one for the justice department.  But if the Democrats are able to hold one or both house of Congress this fall, and able to take a half dozen key gubernatorial contests in places like Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, & Pennsylvania (along with winning Secretary of State & Attorney General races in swing states), that would disrupt expectations, and give them a very strong hand going into 2024 and beyond.  Democrats should continue to make overtures to the winnable Republicans, the ones who find Trump's behavior reprehensible or who find a specific candidate like Mehmet Oz or JD Vance unacceptable (win wherever you can with any coalition that'll have you), but they need to stop assuming that there will be a behavior that will wake up the remainder of the country, and instead focus on winning elections, confirming judges (at all levels), & continuing to pass legislation that will protect the country from the next Donald Trump.