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| Rep-Elect Mary Peltola (D-AK) |
Former State Rep. Mary Peltola today was announced the victor in the House election to succeed the late Rep. Don Young, who represented the district since the 1970's. It cannot be overstated how big of a deal this is for a variety of reasons, but I'd be remiss if I didn't lead with a couple. For starters, Peltola is the first Native Alaskan to represent Alaska in Congress, and will be the first woman to represent the state in the US House. Peltola is the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in over 50 years; to put some perspective on it, the last time a Democrat represented Alaska in the House Richard Nixon was president, the #1 movie in America was The Poseidon Adventure, and we were still fighting the Vietnam War. Peltola's victory also is a sigh of relief for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who with the recent resignations of Charlie Crist & Antonio Delgado and the upcoming resignation of Rep. Ted Deutch, she was flirting dangerously close with just 218 members (with 10 members of the Democratic caucus in their 80's). Peltola will give her some wiggle room (as will the recent victory by Rep-Elect Pat Ryan in New York), as no matter what happens in November (more in a second) Peltola will hold this seat until at least January 3rd.
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| Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) |
Peltola's victory is another humiliation for a one-time rising star in the Republican Party, Sarah Palin. It's sometimes hard to remember, but there was once a time when Sarah Palin wasn't a national punchline. Indeed, she beat a sitting governor in the 2006 gubernatorial primary (Lisa Murkowski's dad, no less), and was the first (and to date only) woman on the national Republican ticket. But in the years since her landslide loss in 2008, she resigned prematurely, had an unsuccessful reality show, got divorced, was unable to secure a spot in the Trump administration, and now lost a House race in a seat that Donald Trump won by 10-points in 2020. To add insult to injury, Palin still has to run in November-she is on the ballot for the November election, and if she has any ambition whatsoever to hold office again, she can't drop out now. Had Palin run in 2014 or 2016, she probably would be a sitting senator right now. Instead, she's a failed House candidate in a red state.
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| Nick Begich III (R-AK) |
We will see something of a repeat in terms of candidates in 68 days when this seat is up again for a full two-year term, but it's unclear what will happen next. This was a special election, so turnout should be higher, but it's not clear whom that will benefit, exactly. Palin made it to the runoff, and got more votes than her Republican opponent Nick Begich (the grandson of the last Democrat who won a House seat in Alaska, and the rare Republican in the storied Begich family which also includes a former US Senator and the Alaska Senate Minority Leader). Begich was considered more of a mainstream conservative to Palin's MAGA contingency, but it's possible that Palin could see more defections than him given she lost in a more high-profile way. Honestly, though, it's not clear what happens here thanks to Peltola losing by RCV rather than on the first ballot. Palin might have a more loyal base, and Begich voters might be less inclined to put Peltola second place now that they know she can actually win (or they might not-Palin is uniquely unpopular with a large swath of Alaska voters). Conversely, Peltola, who is a Native Alaskan which is a sizable minority population in the state, will almost certainly get excited Democrats & Native Alaskans out to vote for her in disproportionate numbers now that they know she can actually win. All of this is to say, with less than ten weeks until Election Day, a Trump +10 district has to be considered a total Tossup...there's enough confusion here that it'd be easy to see Peltola, Palin, or Begich getting sworn in for the full term in January.
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| Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) |
The one person I do think this helps, though, is Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Palin's longtime rival in the state. Murkowski already did extremely well in the initial primary, getting 45% of the vote and winning a plurality. Peltola winning means that Murkowski is not put in the awkward position of being forced to endorse an incumbent Palin (she'd never admit it, but I suspect Murkowski herself might've been a Begich/Peltola voter), particularly Palin's support will largely reside with her chief opponent Kelly Tshibaka, who is endorsed by Donald Trump. Murkowski will also benefit from higher turnout from Native Alaskan voters (who disproportionately voted Murkowski/Peltola a few weeks ago) as she has always had a strong backing from this constituency, and while she has a Democratic opponent (Patricia Chesbro), Chesbro was barely a blip on the ballot in the primary, and on the off-chance that this goes to a second ballot, it's likely that Chesbro's votes will almost all go to Murkowski. Consequently, a stronger Peltola weirdly ends up helping a Republican at the top of the ballot.
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| House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) |
The question you're all asking, though, is: what does this mean for November? It has to be said that while this is a big deal for Democrats, this is not a race that can be replicated. A RCV vote with an iconic MAGA celebrity with universal name recognition is not something you'll see everywhere (though, it's worth noting, it's not totally unprecedented specifically in the Pennsylvania Senate race). So this is not a sign that the Democrats will win the House in November (they still remain underdogs, though increasingly less significant ones). However, I will say two things. One, this puts one more seat that Republicans must hold into Tossup territory-if we're counting on one hand the margin between Democrats & Republicans (like we did in 2000 and 2020), every seat matters and Democrats just made another one a possibility. But perhaps most potently-this shows that a MAGA figure is vulnerable in slight/lean Trump territory if people hate them badly enough. Obviously this could be a factor in the race for the Senate (JD Vance, Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters, & Herschel Walker could be more vulnerable than expected), but it's also an issue in the House. Democrats like Chris Pappas, Marcy Kaptur, & Wiley Nickel are running against opponents in marginal seats that are devoted election deniers & hard-core MAGA enthusiasts. If they can tap into the same sort of independent voters that Peltola did, they might win.
Which has to scare the crap out of Kevin McCarthy who needs Democrats like Pappas, Kaptur, & Nickel to lose in order to get 218 Republicans elected. McCarthy is not well-liked in Republican circles, and unlike Mitch McConnell, there are plenty of Republicans who clearly want to take him on (specifically other members of the leadership like Steve Scalise & Elise Stefanik). Republicans will have other shots to take back the House if they lose it in 2022, but it's likely that McCarthy will not-he will almost certainly lose his post if he can't take a majority this November. Mary Peltola winning might not mean that he's going to lose (again, don't read too much into this), but after week of bad news for McCarthy tonight he got the worst news he's had all year.
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