As part of our month-long celebration on the blog, I couldn't skip doing at least some politics. I know there are a few people who come here solely for the political content, even though the movie content in the past couple of years has been the dominant force. Blame it, like most things, on Donald Trump, who sucked a lot of the joy out of the world, including me being able to look at politics in quite the same way.
I don't have a set date for when these will be done other than they're all three in June (these articles take a while to write, so I need to pace myself!), but we'll take a look for the upcoming midterms at the races to control the House, Senate, and the Governors mansions. We are now into the summer, and while there is some precedence for major changes in the races into the fall (specifically the financial crisis of 2008, which caused an already probable McCain loss to be cemented with a filibuster-proof Senate for the Democrats), right now you don't want to be the Democrats in November. President Biden's approval ratings are horrible given inflation and a rocky stock market, and while congressional Democrats do better in balloting (and the Senate Democrats couldn't have picked a better map to run on than this one), that might not be enough. At this point, while no Democrat is DOA in November (a good sign in case Biden's approval starts to pick up or if his 2020 supporters begrudgingly vote blue again), if I had to take a bet, it'd be that Mitch McConnell will control the Senate again in 2023. Of the two houses, though, Democrats have the much better shot at this one, and you'll see why with the below list (and given the pace at which Democrats have been confirming judges in the past two years, if you had to keep one house, you'd want to keep the Senate as that judicial confirmation train would continue at a similar pace, giving Biden a way to wipe out Trump's advantage in the lower courts). A reminder if you're new-the #1 seat is the one I think is most likely to change partisan balance in November.
Honorable Mention: I still can't quite get a read here on if the Battle of the Senate is a really narrow field (which would be good for Democrats, as it keeps their damage low though their margin-of-error slimmer), or if we are expanding into some of the additional races in Slots 7-10...I think we need to see what's about to happen with Biden's approval numbers and if they are truly as cataclysmic downballot as Democrats worry they might be. But I think it's worth noting that it would take a miracle for Rep. Val Demings to pull off the race against Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida, and at this point she's more on damage control. If she can keep this competitive (or at least not embarrassing), she'll have a decent shot at a second Senate nomination in 2024 against Rick Scott in a more favorable scenario...if not, there's several Democrats in the wings that would love that opportunity in Florida. Conversely, if Donald Trump were in the White House we'd be talking about Missouri, where former Gov. Eric Greitens (who resigned due to sexual misconduct) looks increasingly likely to be the Republican nominee. In a different year, Democrats' recruitment of Trudy Busch Valentine (of the Busch Beer millions) might make the difference (lest we forget, Democrats had one of Missouri's Senate seats less than four years ago), but in 2022, I doubt even a candidate as toxic as Greitens can lose in a state this red.
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| Tiffany Smiley (R-WA) |
Florida coming off of the list means we're going to make a bold claim. I don't know if Washington is competitive. It's a blue state, and Sen. Patty Murray has made it through rough cycles before (she won in both 2004 & 2010). However, if the shoe drops for Democrats and we have a 2010 situation on our hands (I'm increasingly pessimistic for the left that they are letting this election cycle slip away from them), you'll be able to tell with someone like Murray. Republicans got a solid recruit in veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley, who has proven to be a prodigious fundraiser & has a compelling personal biography. Murray appears to already be on the air in Washington, and as a member of the Senate leadership likely doesn't want the DSCC to focus on her race this fall when other more vulnerable races should get the attention, so she's hoping to define Smiley before she has a chance. Abortion will become a big conversation in this race-Smiley is anti-choice, and abortion rights are popular here (expect Emily's List, who is a longtime backer of Murray, to start writing big checks if they think she's vulnerable). (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) |
Moving down the list, though not completely off of it, is Ohio. Rep. Tim Ryan won the Democratic nomination virtually uncontested, but thanks to a late endorsement from former President Trump, venture capitalist JD Vance pulled a come-from-behind victory for the Republican nomination. In a different cycle, this would be a compelling conversation. Vance is not a particularly good candidate, poorly trying to keep his toes in both worlds as a Harvard-educated businessman who grew up in the poorer communities of rural Ohio/Kentucky (and wrote a bestselling memoir called Hillbilly Elegy). Ryan, who has made his career off of appealing to blue collar communities in Ohio, is about the best the Democrats can hope for and makes a compelling counter to Vance (blue collar vs. white collar is how Sherrod Brown has won several of his races), but the 2022 midterms look too red, and Vance isn't a Doug Mastriano situation where a bad candidate will become a toxic one. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| State Rep. Ron Hanks (R-CO) |
Similar to Washington, Colorado is the canary in the coal mine for Democrats-if it starts getting competitive, things will get brutal for the party come this fall in a way that will make it look more like 2010 than 2002. The biggest benefit for Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, though, is that the Republicans seem to have fowled up their nomination. Unlike in Washington, where the problem isn't the nominee but the state's blue tint, here we have conspiracy theorist State Rep. Ron Hanks as a probable nominee (he has to best the GOP's preferred candidate construction company owner Joe O'Dea), which will be toxic in Colorado. Waves can produce odd winners...but they aren't magic wands, and even in 2010 Republicans overplayed their hands in several races allowing Democrats (including Bennet) to prevail as a result. (Previous Ranking: 9)
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| Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D-NC) |
Sitting at #7 is North Carolina. Here's the deal with the race. The Republicans didn't screw up here (I think conventional wisdom was that Gov. Pat McCrory would be the best candidate, but I think the lack of enthusiasm for a former governor was telling, particularly against Chief Justice Cheri Beasley who should be able to help with turnout in North Carolina's large African-American population), and that probably takes this race off-the-table. But it's worth noting that Biden barely lost North Carolina in a year with Donald Trump on the ballot. The state has been light pink for nearly a decade now...eventually a federal, statewide Democrat is going to slip through the cracks here, and given how often I've been burned in this state, I doubt I'll see it coming when it happens. In this environment, it's probably not going to be Beasley, but I remain more bullish about her prospects than Ryan or Demings primarily because North Carolina is a state that is consistently too close for the Democrats not to pull off a correct coin toss call one of these cycles. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) |
Wisconsin has stayed the same in the rankings, but I'll be honest, it has gone down in terms of what my expectations are for the race. Sen. Ron Johnson is a unique figure in that he is far more conservative than his state would imply (there is no figure on the left that represents a seat this purple with such stringent views...it'd be like Cori Bush getting elected as a senator from Florida). But even in a Biden state, I think Democrats are going to need to run a nearly perfect campaign, and I don't think that's happening. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) is the heavy favorite for the nomination, but he's not taking off in the way that say, John Fetterman did in Pennsylvania, and while I'd bet on him winning the primary, that lack of enthusiasm honestly makes me wish the Democrats would consider looking elsewhere. It's worth noting that what it took to take out Scott Walker wasn't a particularly exciting candidate-it was a boring one who won by promising a moderate approach that Walker simply couldn't deliver. I kind of wonder if Democrats might be sleeping on someone like State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, who like Tony Evers is a pretty nondescript Democrat who would appeal to the very slim middle in the state in a way that Barnes as the frontrunner hasn't appeared able to achieve. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| State Sen. Chuck Morse (R-NH) |
I initially moved New Hampshire up one, and part of me thinks I should have, but I'm still skeptical. Of the Top 6 (all Biden-won states), this is the state he won by the most, and there are two major issues for the Republicans here. The NRSC got a who's who of "who's that?" for their nominees, as every big name Republican in the state passed on a chance to take on incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan, and even the highest-profile name in the race (State Sen. Chuck Morse) hasn't cleared the field. The second is the abortion issue. Few states have as strong of a track record on abortion rights as New Hampshire, a light blue state with a strong libertarian lean. Hassan is pro-choice, and will get millions of dollars spent by outside groups like Emily's List & NARAL in the coming months to underline her support. I think that might be enough to get her by, but if a Biden +7 state is this close with a universally-known incumbent against such paltry competition...the DSCC can't be happy about that even if Hassan remains favored. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) |
I've said it a couple times now, but since no White House has achieved the reelection of every one of their incumbent senators since the 1930's, it's probable that if the Democrats can hold 50 seats this cycle, it's likely because they picked up a seat. And I will say this-I don't foresee a scenario where the Democrats hold the Senate without winning Pennsylvania. While Republicans did not totally screw up here (January 6th attendee Kathy Barnette will not be the nominee), they didn't gain a lot of ground with the nomination of TV personality Mehmet Oz. Combined with far right election denier Doug Mastriano being the nominee for governor, and you've got a recipe for the Democrats winning because of unforced errors from the Republicans (hey, a win is still a win). But the Democrats have also gotten an unfortunate forced error with their nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, experiencing some unexpected health issues that have shined a light on the campaign. Recent revelations of some heart issues for Fetterman shouldn't be an issue (candidates win with health issues all the time), but they give ammunition to the Republicans, who by sheer luck may have just nominated one of the country's most famous (albeit also infamous) medical doctors. Every day that Fetterman isn't campaigning & taking advantage of a map he's already running uphill against, is a day that this clear opportunity for the party starts to vanish...and with that their likeliest path to a majority. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Herschel Walker (R-GA) |
If you're a Democrat who has been reading this and grabbing for their gin bottle, take a quick break, because I have one piece of good news for you, and that's in Georgia. While the recent primary went as expected (both incumbent-Sen. Raphael Warnock and former pro football player Herschel Walker won), Walker now being the nominee illustrates a clear problem for the Republicans-he might be, even by 2022 Republican standards, a truly horrific candidate. Walker's recent answer about what to do to prevent gun violence in the wake of deadly shootings in Texas & New York was a word soup answer that literally made no sense. Gun control talking points for Republicans are so easy that I could do them in my sleep, and yet he bungled it. Given that he is competing against not just an incumbent in a Biden state, but also one of the country's best public speakers, this sets up a really stark comparison between the two men that clearly favors Warnock. Terrible candidates win all the time in waves, but waves are not magical...it's possible that Warnock will win a full term simply because the Republicans nominated someone who doesn't seem capable of speaking in cogent sentences on basic issues. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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| Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) |
We're keeping Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in second rather than moving her up because her story has largely stayed the same. Polling here shows a competitive race (though it's worth noting that Nevada weirdly is the antithesis of most public polling these days, as it underestimates Democrats historically while the remainder overestimates them), and the race seems set, with Cortez Masto facing off against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who is a noted election denier. The question for Cortez Masto is pretty simple. How does she find a way to counter the attacks Laxalt will do on inflation, particularly in a state that is disproportionately prone to higher unemployment (due to its reliance on the tourism industry) than most of the nation? Cortez Masto is talking pretty loudly about abortion rights, which is a smart play in a state that is way more pro-choice than its purple status would imply, and Democrats have threaded the needle in Nevada for most of the last decade, but Laxalt has to be considered at least a slight favorite unless Cortez Masto can find a way to make this race feel like less of a "generic Democrat" vs. "generic Republican" race. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Blake Masters (R-AZ) |
I'm going with Arizona as #1 for a couple of reasons. Unlike Nevada it doesn't have a long history of coming through in the clutch for Democrats (Kyrsten Sinema was the first Democrat to win a Senate seat here in a generation), and unlike Georgia, the Republicans aren't capable of totally dropping the ball here (i.e. Wendy Rogers did not end up running statewide). As a result, despite having just won, Sen. Mark Kelly is probably a mild underdog in this race. The best thing for him in the crowded Republican Primary would be a win from venture capitalist Blake Masters, which after Donald Trump's recent endorsement of him, seems likely (the Republicans would be better off going with Attorney General Mark Brnovich, but Trump has found that unacceptable, and if I learned anything from Ohio & Alabama this year, it's to bet on a Trump pick in a wide-ranging primary). Masters will be able to go toe-to-toe with Kelly's formidable fundraising operation, but I think he'll struggle in terms of biography. Masters is a thirtysomething blue-blood Stanford graduate that cuts the veneer of an awkward guy who can't stop talking about finance, while Kelly is a highly-decorated Navy veteran, astronaut, and is a famously devoted husband. It's clear who wins in terms of "which candidate would you like to have a beer with?" One question that I do have is how Masters will frame the gun control debate, as Kelly's credentials on that (given his work with his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords) are pretty much unimpeachable. Kelly right now doesn't quite have the environment to beat Masters, so he'll need to win it on personality or finding an issue not related to the economy...against Masters as opposed to Brnovich, that's probably an easier (albeit tough) fight. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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