We are officially in the middle of not just primary season, but after last night, some of the highest-profile primaries of the year. As we look ahead to what could be a brutal midterm for the Democrats, the biggest questions that seem to be on most pundits minds' when it comes to primaries is if there will be any slip-ups that might give the other party the edge, though in an era where Donald Trump can be elected president, it's difficult to tell what exactly would be truly detrimental to a campaign. Still, one big race last night give the Democrats an opening in the most important 2024 swing state in the nation.
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| State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-PA) |
Republicans last night, with Donald Trump's blessing, took a huge risk in selecting far-right State Sen. Doug Mastriano to be their standard-bearer in the Pennsylvania Governor's race. Mastriano, even by modern Republican standards, is outside-the-mainstream (at least for a general election). Mastriano was one of the leading voices in trying to overturn the 2020 election in Pennsylvania, and was present at the January 6th terrorist attacks on the Capitol (video indicates that while Mastriano did not enter the Capitol, he did pass through breached barriers set up by Capitol Police).
Given that Mastriano as a state legislator literally attempted to subvert the election by having the Republican state legislature, not the electorate (which selected Joe Biden) to send electors to choose the president, it is not hyperbole to state that, were he to be elected, it's near certain that he would use his power as governor to ensure that, no matter what the electorate said, the Republicans would win the state's electoral votes, putting us in a situation where we're relying on the 6-3 Republican majority in the Supreme Court to do the right thing. Democrats will hammer Mastriano on this, which should give Attorney General Josh Shapiro (their nominee) an edge, but this is arguably the most must-win race on the map in November with Mastriano as the nominee.
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| LG John Fetterman (D-PA) |
Shapiro will be joined statewide by John Fetterman, the state's current Lieutenant Governor who won a contested primary against Rep. Conor Lamb (more on him in a second) last night despite having recently suffered from a stroke. Fetterman is the best chance the Democrats have of netting a Senate seat in November (I'd go so far as to say if he loses this race, the Democrats won't win the Senate), but his opponent is still up-in-the-air. While an insurgent campaign from Kathy Barnette potentially acted as a spoiler, the Republicans didn't have another person who attended the events on January 6th on the ticket with her decidedly in third. Instead, Hedge Fund CEO David McCormick & TV personality Mehmet Oz (of Dr. Oz fame) are locked in a very tight race that will come down to mail-in ballots & possibly a recount. Given the nastiness of the campaign (Donald Trump has already issued a statement saying that Oz, his preference, was the winner, creating a hurdle if it's McCormick who comes out on top), and the fact that they won't be able to move to the general election for potentially weeks, every day this stays unknown is a chance for Fetterman to solidify his standing in November (and continue to raise millions).
Fetterman's win against Lamb ends what was once a promising career. Lamb made national headlines in 2018 when he won a Trump seat in a special election, a harbinger to the Democrats winning the House later that year. Lamb ran to Fetterman's right, but despite huge institutional support, couldn't translate that into a victory. Given his age (he's only 37), and that he would've held onto his House seat with ease, Lamb has only himself to blame for potentially destroying a promising political career just a few years after it began.
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| Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) |
Speaking of rising stars who quickly fell, Rep. Madison Cawthorn last night became the second incumbent House member (after Rep. David McKinley) to lose reelection, and the first to do so to a non-incumbent (State Sen. Chuck Edwards). Cawthorn's first term in Congress has been marred by an unusual array of scandals, ranging from one self-inflicted (when he publicly spoke about alleged cocaine-fueled orgies in the House) to those that seemed to follow, including legal issues (he has multiple times been held by police for illegally bringing a firearm into an airport), marital (he announced his divorce from his wife just a year after they wed), and sexual (a sex tape of him nakedly humping another man's face with his bare genitals was released onto social media just two weeks ago). Cawthorn, who is only 26, could stage a comeback if he wanted to, but it's hard to see what his future would be after flaming out so ferociously.
That being said, Republicans backed two House candidates last night that had been endorsed by Cawthorn, both in swing districts setting up two of the more important face-offs in the House. Bo Hines, a former college football player, is only 26 and will run in NC-13, while accountant Sandy Smith won in NC-1. Hines probably will recover better for the general election, given most of his criticism was of district-hopping (which rarely actually hurts you in a general...it's an easier attack in a primary), but Smith is a serious problem for Republicans. She has been accused of assault in previous marriages, and spent much of the day after her election highlighting these allegations on Twitter (generally a political no-no to highlight your weak points to an electorate just getting to know you). Democrats have nominated State Sens. Don Davis (1st) and Wiley Nickel (13th), relatively innocuous legislators, to these seats, providing a pronounced contrast to the Trump-endorsed candidates.
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| LG Janet McGeachin (R-ID) |
Idaho Republicans largely went toward the middle last night in what might be the best sign in a while for the party in red states. The brutal campaign between incumbent-Gov. Brad Little and his LG Janet McGeachin came to a head yesterday with Little beating her. McGeachin has been linked to anti-government militia groups, white supremacists, and the John Birch Society, and has actively courted their votes. She also advocated for the arrest of Dr. Anthony Fauci, despite Fauci having broken no laws. That she lost, along with State Rep. Priscilla Giddings in the LG race (Giddings publicly identified a House intern who had accused a state representative of rape) means that Idaho won't continue a further move to the right...though longtime incumbent Attorney General Lawrence Wasden losing to former Rep. Raul Labrador means that at least one statewide official in the Gem State will be bringing a number of civil rights/liberties lawsuits to the courts in the coming years given a Republican primary is tantamount to a general election victory for Republicans.
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| Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) |
Progressives last night had a mixed record. Candidates in Kentucky & North Carolina that had been endorsed by prominent liberals lost, and while it does appear that State Rep. Summer Lee might pull out a win in an open blue seat in Pennsylvania, she'll do by a microscopic margin. Progressives wanting to go after open seats with stronger, more liberal candidates need to do better, as the best opportunities to expand the "Squad" ranks is going to be in deep blue districts.
That being said, Oregon surely came through for the progressives, and will have the most pronounced change come January. Democrats nominated State Rep. Andrea Salinas in the new sixth district. Salinas was running against crypto millionaire Carrick Flynn, who was backed by a large number of PAC's, including one associated with Nancy Pelosi. A bit of editorializing, but I think crypto is a dangerous trend & am very glad to have Salinas as our standard-bearer in OR-6, a race she's favored to win. A bigger victory for progressives, though, appears to have happened in Oregon's 5th district, where incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader, who voted against Nancy Pelosi in the 2019 Speaker's race and was initially skeptical of impeaching Donald Trump a second time (famously referring to the proceedings as a "lynching" before ultimately backing the impeachment), appears to have lost to attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. McLeod-Skinner is on her third high-profile primary, and this is her first victory. The district is not totally safe, but went to Biden by a large enough margin that McLeod-Skinner would be favored to hold the seat even as a progressive should she win (given the margins, it'd take a small miracle for Schrader to retake the lead though many votes are left to count).
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