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| Sens. Schumer & McConnell-which one will take the lead in November? |
I've said repeatedly throughout the past year, but it bears repeating-the Democrats cannot afford a bad cycle in the Senate in 2022. Winning the Senate is like a game of chess. Liberals glibly point out that the people of Georgia won the Senate for the Democrats in 2021, which is right-Jon Ossoff & Raphael Warnock's surprise victories in the Georgia runoffs clinched an unlikely majority for their party, giving Joe Biden a trifecta for the first two years of his time in office. But it wasn't just Georgia. Voters in Illinois, New Hampshire, Arizona (twice!), Nevada, & Colorado also gave Biden giant-slayers, and the voters of Maine, North Carolina, & Florida nearly cost him that majority. The Senate is won over three cycles, and looking ahead, there aren't a lot of options for the Democrats to grow or stem-the-tide in races. In 2024, the Democrats will have to defend seats in Montana, West Virginia, & Ohio, all states that Trump won by a large margin, while also defending seats in places like Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Nevada, all states that President Biden won by a slim margin. Meanwhile, only Texas & Florida are remotely competitive potential pickups, and those are expensive, tough bets, especially with presidential turnout. In 2026, yes Democrats will have an easier time holding their incumbents (though Jon Ossoff & Gary Peters will both be quite vulnerable), but there's not a lot of options outside Maine, North Carolina, & Texas for the Democrats to gain back some ground. Yes, long-term bet states like Utah, Kansas, & Alaska have potential for the Democrats to get a surprise six-year lease on a seat, but they likely need to be out of the White House to do that, a harrowing prospect for the party given Donald Trump's current frontrunner status for the 2024 presidential nomination.
2022, though, is the one cycle that is clearly favorable to the Democrats. There are four states that Biden won by less than 5-points, to be sure, that are held by Democrats, but there are also two states held by Republicans that Biden won by less than 4-points, and two additional ones that are held by Republicans that Trump won by less than 5-points. As a result, if the Democrats want to have a serious shot at a majority during the 119th Congress (2025-27), they need to pickup seats this cycle rather than just hold-steady with their fifty seat majority (it would take a wave & map like we haven't seen in decades for them to somehow gain seats in two years). Right now, that doesn't appear possible, though no incumbent is so left-for-gone that it's not possible it could happen. The Democrats need to change their fortunes though (and fast) to have any chance of that happening.
Now let's get to the rankings. As a reminder, the #1 is the seat I think is most likely to flip to the other party, not necessarily the incumbent most likely to lose (otherwise Alaska would be on this list).
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| Gov. Eric Greitens (R-MO) |
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| Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) |
I'm moving Florida down for a couple of reasons, primarily the enthusiasm gap and President Biden's 2020 presidential numbers. The Democrats clearly have a problem with Latino voters, particularly Cuban-American voters in Florida who showed some openness to the Democrats in 2016, but reverted back to being reliable voters for Republicans in 2020. Rep. Val Demings is an outstanding recruit, and has raised the kind of money that you need to run a competitive race in Florida, but running against Sen. Marco Rubio, the rare Republican candidate who reads as an excellent fit for his state on this list (recruitment problems have plagued the GOP), she needs a perfect environment & an opponent that makes some missteps. Neither of those things are happening yet, and if they don't, it's hard to see how Demings can win here. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| State Rep. Ron Hanks (R-CO) |
I debated what seat should be added to this as I didn't feel Missouri (our previous #10) warranted a place on this list anymore given the national environment. I'm going with the Colorado race despite it being a pretty blue seat overall. Biden won the state by 14-points, but historically it has been closer than that, and Virginia proved in 2021 that Republicans can pickup seats in historically competitive (but swinging blue) states. Plus, Sen. Michael Bennet has never put up impressive numbers in his reelection bids. The problem for the GOP is that they appear destined to pick the worst possible candidate here. State Rep. Ron Hanks won a spot in the Colorado Republican primary this past weekend, and is now the frontrunner for the nomination (he'll have to beat construction company owner Joe O'Dea to get that distinction). Hanks is a 2020 election denier, and has heartily stood by Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters who is currently under indictment for breach of her county's election system. Democrats have struggled to run against election conspiracy theorists so far, but in such a prominent race & in such a pro-Biden state, it'll be pretty easy for Bennet to link Hanks to the insurrection in voters' minds...likely costing the Republicans an upset potential. But until Biden's approval numbers rise (or I see something happening in a different state), I'm keeping this in the Top 10. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| Mike Gibbons (R-OH) |
Ohio continues to be an embarrassment for the Republican Party of epic proportions that will still (probably) give them a win. Polling shows former State Treasurer Josh Mandel's early lead over the field is slipping to investment banker Mike Gibbons, with whom he nearly got into a fist fight during a debate. It's hard to tell which of these candidates would be the lesser-of-two-evils for the NRSC (if it were up to Mitch McConnell he'd likely just pick former State Party Jane Timken, the only person in the race that also includes JD Vance defending white nationalism, that hasn't totally degraded herself but she has more DC endorsements than actual Ohio voters on her side). Gibbons has made some serious unforced errors, including saying that the "middle class doesn't pay their fair share" that labor movement champion Rep. Tim Ryan (who has the Democratic race to himself) might have capitalized on in an different decade, but Ohio has swung so red it's possible that a terrible Republican & an excellent Democrat won't matter, especially in 2022. But the recipe here is a lot more tempestuous than Florida, and so I am swapping them on this list as a result even if Florida is more purple. (Previous Ranking: 9)
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| Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) |
North Carolina, in a similar fashion to Ohio, has also seen their Republican frontrunner start to buckle, but unlike Ohio, it's clear which of these McConnell would prefer coming out on top, and that candidate is not winning. The endorsement of President Trump for Rep. Ted Budd (R) has helped him rebound against former Gov. Pat McCrory in polling. McCrory is the more palatable of the two candidates given some of Budd's past statements about the January 6th insurrection, but this is a state that Donald Trump won in 2020 (even by a narrow margin), and as a result is a harder sell for Democrats to pickup, particularly if Budd can find a way to coalesce quickly (it's worth noting he made a recent comment saying that Biden won "fair and square," perhaps a sign that he's taking his path to the general election more seriously). With State Sen. Jeff Jackson (who is now a frontrunner for a redrawn House seat) out of the race, former Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley is getting a parade to the Democratic nomination, but she'll need Budd to screw up (and to run a perfect campaign herself) to be able to pull this off. One of the bigger questions for Beasley will be whether her position as potentially the first African-American woman to win a Senate race in the South will help drive out Black voters in a midterm election in a state where 20% of the electorate is African-American. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) |
The remaining six seats are all states that Joe Biden won in 2020, so the job of the candidates is less to appeal to reluctant Trump voters (or through turnout, outnumber them), and more to reassemble Biden's coalition. The state where I find that the most concerning is Wisconsin, and that's why it's moving way down this list. Sen. Ron Johnson's politics are jarring for a swing state (he is undoubtedly the most extreme senator currently representing a clearly purple state on either side of the aisle), but he's also won twice. His probable opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, definitely has an angle here. Johnson is an unusual candidate in that he's deeply polarizing, much like former Gov. Scott Walker, and will struggle to gain a lot of crossover votes. However, Wisconsin is SO marginal that even a few crossover votes can make the difference, and both Walker & Johnson have proven that extremism isn't necessarily punished by Wisconsin voters. I don't see a way that Johnson loses his third term unless A) Biden's approval numbers rebound or B) Barnes can make this a race about Johnson rather than the president. Neither of those things are happening yet, and the clock is ticking. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) |
Also moving down this list is Sen. Maggie Hassan's reelection race in New Hampshire, as I said above the one piece of really good news for the Democrats in 2022. Had Chris Sununu run here, I'd have put this in #1 and Hassan would've become the first incumbent senator I'd say was clearly the underdog to get a win. However, Sununu didn't run, and Hassan, a former governor & well-liked incumbent senator, is now facing a series of second-tier candidates, the frontrunner of whom is probably Brigadier General Don Bolduc. Hassan loses in polling when you place her against a Generic Republican, but bests most of her actual opponents. That's not a great position to be in, and there's a reason I have this ranked higher than Wisconsin because the national environment could impact Hassan. However, recruitment still matters, and against Bolduc, she'd be the favorite. If the Democrats pull off a second consecutive majority in the Senate come November, one of the chief contributing factors will be Chris Sununu's decision to not pursue a Senate seat. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) |
The other contributing factor will be the bizarre Senate race in Pennsylvania. Also moving down, but entirely due to the national environment (I still think if the Democrats win the majority, they'll have won it because they picked this up rather than by holding all four of their challenging seats), as Democrats are getting a gift of a hand in this state. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has run what some might say was a lazy campaign (his defenders would clarify it as savvy), not really acknowledging Rep. Conor Lamb (who is looking increasingly foolish for trying a quixotic Senate campaign and abandoning a House seat that might be difficult for him to reclaim), but Fetterman's plan is working. He is still the frontrunner for the nomination, and it is entirely possible will face off against talk show host Mehmet Oz in November, given Donald Trump's recent endorsement of Oz. Oz's politics, and his association with a lot of quack medical advice (not to mention his Hollywood connections) give Fetterman a unique plan-of-attack that might not work against someone like hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick. Remember, Fetterman doesn't look like your average politician (at 6'9" with multiple tattoos, Fetterman would be more typecast in a movie as a bouncer than as a senator), and given his deep Pennsylvania roots growing up in the state's frail manufacturing region, it'll be difficult for Oz to paint him as out-of-touch in the way Fetterman would be able to levy that attack. If Biden's position improves & Oz is the nominee (both if's, but not impossible ones), Fetterman regains the #1 slot here as the GOP royally screwed up in this race & in the process might've gifted Democrats a crucial Senate seat. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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| Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R-AZ) |
I am giving the Top 3 slots to Democratic-held seats, which I haven't done yet this cycle due entirely to the Biden administration's poor numbers. All three have strong incumbent Democrats and less-than-stellar Republican opponents, so if Biden can regain his footing this summer, none of these races are lost causes...but that's still a huge question that the Democrats haven't found an answer for. Of the three, Arizona feels the least vulnerable for a couple of reasons. For starters, they just elected their candidate in 2020, and he seems relatively well-liked. Mark Kelly has been a fundraising dynamo (he'll be able to outspend his opponents), and coupled with Kyrsten Sinema's victory in 2018, Arizona Democrats have proven in back-to-back cycles that Democrats can play in a purple state. The big question is whom his opponent will be. Arguably the best Republican in the field is Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who is leading less due to popularity and more due to a splintered field. Brnovich has two major opponents, solar energy executive Jim Lamon & venture capitalist Blake Masters, two novices that have made some missteps in their race that Kelly could take advantage of in a general election. It's clear that Donald Trump & other Republican power brokers like Wendy Rogers don't want Brnovich to be their nominee...but if they get their way, they might gift Mark Kelly a full term in the process. And if they damage Brnovich enough in the primary, it's possible that dampened enthusiasm helps Kelly as well. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) |
Nevada has not gone for a federal Republican statewide since 2012, when Sen. Dean Heller won a tight contest against scandal-plauged Rep. Shelley Berkley. But during that time, Democrats have struggled to put away the state in the same way they seem to have in Colorado & Virginia, other Obama states that just stayed blue after he left office. As a result, I think that Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is in trouble. The strength of the labor movement is still waning even in a place like Nevada where it has survived longer than most, and Cortez Masto has to contend with increasingly swingy Latino voters in a state where Democrats need to do very well with these voters to take a victory. Her opponent, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, is hardly a great recruit (he lost the 2018 governor's race and has heavily linked himself to 2020 election conspiracy theories), but he's doing very well in the polls, basically tied with Cortez Masto at this point. Particularly given the significance of this state to a Biden/Harris plan in 2024 (keep in mind that there's a second Democratic-held Senate seat up here in 2024 that is a must-win), Democrats can't really afford to lose Nevada as there's too many chips on the table there , but right now they are no better than 50/50 odds (gambling metaphor intentional). (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Herschell Walker (R-GA) |
The #1 seat on this list is Georgia. Georgia is a Biden state, to be sure, but it's a very recent convert. Keep in mind that while 2018 gave Democrats shiny presents in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, & Nevada, they got a lump of coal in Georgia, where despite Stacey Abrams best efforts, she couldn't beat Brian Kemp (and spare me the "stolen election" bull shit-it's not right when Republicans do it, so don't emulate that Democrats...she legitimately lost a tight race, albeit in a election with some questionable ethical decisions by Kemp). So the big question here is not whether or not Republicans can compete in Georgia (they can), but whether 2020-21 was a Trump-inspired fluke or a sign of a now trending-blue Peach State. I tend to think it's the latter (the demographics in Atlanta are impossible to deny), but Democrats aren't at the point where they can rest on their laurels, and Sen. Raphael Warnock needs to find a way to capture the same coalition he did in 2021 without Jon Ossoff helping him run a dual campaign. Warnock is helped by a poor candidate (Republican Herschell Walker's past allegations of domestic abuse & threatening his ex-wife's life will be fodder in this race), and by the strange dynamics of the governor's race (where it appears Donald Trump would prefer even Stacey Abrams win if it meant Brian Kemp lost), but this is a tough road, and Democrats should not lightly dismiss polling that shows Walker holding a small lead over Warnock at this juncture. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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