DeSantis Winning Would Mean a Broken America

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

Few politicians have made a bigger name for themselves in terms of legislation in 2022 than Ron DeSantis.  The first-term governor of Florida has been a lightning rod in recent weeks for taking on legislation that seems to not only fly in the face of Florida's swing state status, but in general, it flies in the face of common logic in terms of politics.

In February, he backed a bill that has been referred to as the "Don't Say Gay" bill that would prohibit teachers from discussing sexual orientation or gender identity in school.  DeSantis also backed a congressional redistricting plan that flies plainly in the face of the Florida State Constitution, removing two majority black districts in the state in the Jacksonville & Orlando areas, and replacing them with gerrymandered seats that will squash Black voters abilities to elect representatives that represent their values.  And last week, he backed a bill that essentially took away Disney's self-governing privileges at its theme parks, exclusively because Disney stood up to DeSantis' backing of the "Don't Say Gay" bill.

These actions by DeSantis are all unconstitutional.  The gerrymandering bill violates the Florida State Constitution, which "bars legislators from drawing maps to secure partisan gains or deny minority voters representation."  Given the large African-American populations of Tallahassee, Jacksonville, & Orlando, there is no way where a map that eliminates Al Lawson & Val Demings' districts isn't in violation of that law.  The only way this stands (and at this point, seems probable to stand) is if the deeply conservative Florida Supreme Court ignores the law and lets DeSantis do whatever they want since they agree with the outcome.

The "Don't Say Gay" bill is also unconstitutional.  The "Don't Say Gay" bill is unusually vague, meaning that it is impossible for public educators and administrations to know what is & isn't appropriate.  It's not clear, for example, if a lesbian teacher were to mention her "wife" in a classroom sentence or if a student were to talk about his "two dads" as part of an assignment if this would violate the law.  This poses a constitutional problem for the law.  While states can ban certain types of education without violating the first amendment (think abstinence-only education), the Supreme Court has stated that the law cannot be so vague as to require "people of common intelligence to guess at its meaning."  While it's not clear that the very conservative US Supreme Court would defends LGTBQ Floridians (a problem for a different day), it's clear the law is badly-written and villainously vague.

The Disney bill is also unconstitutional.  While it is legal for politicians to rescind laws like the one that protects the Reedy Creek Improvement District (which gives Disney its autonomy), they cannot do so as retribution for a public opinion-that is a violation of free speech.  While Republicans will claim in court that they did this as a matter of public policy, their actions say something different.  When Newsmax's Eric Bolling asked DeSantis's Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez "Is there an opportunity for Disney to change their mind and say we will disregard this whole woke agenda...and would the governor then say 'fine, you can keep your status'?" Nunez replied "sure."  That is a clear indication that DeSantis was doing this to punish Disney for publicly holding a different opinion from him, which is against the first amendment.

Putting aside the fact that all three of these laws are illegal, they're also terrible public policy & deeply unpopular.  70% of Americans back same-sex marriage, and 81% of citizens back gay-and-lesbian people being educators.  70% of Americans are against gerrymandering, and while there is less polling of the Disney issue, it's clear that this is going to be unpopular with the residents it impacts.  Orlando area property holders (who, it has to be noted, are predominantly Democratic) will suffer a gargantuan property tax increase as a result of this law, as the state of Florida has taken on an enormous amount of Disney debt in rescinding these rights, with property taxes going up as much as 25% in the metro area.

State Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried (D-FL)

I'm providing a lot of preamble here, which I don't normally do before talking about the reason I am writing an article, because I wanted to impress upon you how bad DeSantis is for his job.  DeSantis is not just a conservative politician.  He is a uniquely vindictive politician, one who punishes his enemies & is willing to repeatedly break the law in order to enact that punishment, knowing that the judicial system is too corrupt or slow to enable retribution.  Essentially, DeSantis is Donald Trump...if Donald Trump had had actual issues he cared about or the intelligence to enact those agenda items.

And it's entirely possible that DeSantis will get away with it.  A year after DeSantis' inactions during the Covid crisis led to thousands of Florida residents becoming more vulnerable (and likely dying), his approval ratings went up.  DeSantis, despite living in a state that has delivered razor-thin margins in countless elections since 2000, seems like he's going to win reelection in November, even though the Democrats have nominated two genuinely quality candidates in State Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist, both of whom have held statewide office.  He will do this not because he's necessarily liked, but because of the cyclical nature of American elections, where midterms automatically punish the party in the White House.

That is a broken system, and it honestly is one of the biggest red flags for the survival of American democracy.  DeSantis, by any nonpartisan metric, is unfit for public office.  He is a cruel, hateful man who will do whatever it takes to punish his opponents, including breaking the law.  This is wrong regardless of your political beliefs.  The law only offers one venue that the people of his state can truly punish him, since all of their other venues are closed by his abuse-of-power, and that's by voting against him in November.  I would love to live in a country where such malice & incompetence would guarantee he loses, and indeed I will hope so until I see otherwise, but it is a truly tragic indictment of the American experiment that Ron DeSantis, one of the worst of us, will probably cruise to reelection this fall based solely on the cyclical nature of American politics, and in the process make it exponentially easier for other Republican governors to do the same.