2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver
2011: Gary Oldman & Max von Sydow
You actually have to go back to 2006 to find the last year where all of the Oscar nominees were cited for either the Globes or the SAG Awards. As you can see from this lineup, the list generally falls into two camps. Most of the nominees are from films that were being nominated already for Best Picture or one of the major acting nominees. People like LaKeith Stanfield, Paul Raci, & Florence Pugh in recent years fall into this camp, where they managed to impress in a movie that was already being screened, and the Academy went for it. Occasionally we get someone like Gary Oldman or Charlotte Rampling who get on this list without such a citation, but in that case they almost always have to be famous (preferably screen legends or former winners/nominees). Below, I have assembled a list of ten actors that have not been nominated for the Globes or SAG Awards this season, and ranked them based on the likelihood that they will join the list above, becoming Oscar nominees against the odds. I will state that the below list is predominantly focused on the supporting categories, which feel far more influx than the leads do (we don't normally have this imbalance, but I feel like the supporting categories aren't nearly as defined as they usually are by now).
For Her: Hunter is generally getting the best-in-show citations for Macbeth, even as Denzel Washington is scoring most of the nominations. Though Hunter isn't all that famous, it's easy to see people watching this movie, which just opened (and might not be at the top of the screener list), and nominating her-it's the sort of performance where if you see it, it stands out. You don't have to be super famous to make the cut in this regard (look at Lesley Manville above, who would be a very similar scenario to Hunter).
Against Her: Obviously, she's not all that famous, and it's easier to get into the race if you're a big name. I also wonder if she's got some internal competition from 3-time Oscar Winner Frances McDormand, who is by all rights a lead, but is in a small enough portion of the film that I'd totally buy some people putting her in supporting. For a film this small, that will matter.
For Her: Though her film isn't a threat anywhere else, Cruz is a famous, Oscar-winning movie star...that gives you a crib sheet when it comes to getting into the Oscar ballots. More importantly, she's in a movie that's opening late...but Oscar voting is also happening later than we typically see for the Globes & SAG Awards. Could Cruz break late ala Marion Cotillard in 2014...word is she's superb in this movie, which could definitely help.
Against Her: Two things. First, she has no momentum at this point because her studio opened the film too late & you'd think that Cruz (and Pedro Almodovar) would have been enough to get her into some of the precursor DVD players...that she wasn't is a telling sign. More importantly, Best Actress feels, very, very wrapped up with Stewart, Kidman, Colman, Chastain, & Gaga all feeling about right, and if they are getting kicked out wouldn't Rachel Zegler (Globe-winning & in a Best Picture nominee) or Jennifer Hudson (SAG-nominated & in a biopic) make more sense?
For Her: For starters, she's Judi Dench, which for a while there was literally all the answer you needed for something like this. Dench is also in a prominent role in a likely Best Picture nominee (I still think it's one of the three films that is contending for the actual win, all the more reason to endorse it), and she's good in the movie. She's one of the emotional centers of the film, gets a lot of fun scene-stealing, and if you like the movie enough to cite it as your best picture, it's easy to see someone sparing room for Dench...
Against Her: ...so why is she missing so many citations? Honestly, Judi Dench is not a new name to the Globes & SAG Awards (she's been nominated plenty of times), and they clearly saw Belfast cause they're nominating her costars. Is it possible that the Academy has moved beyond the "Grand Dame" route for their nominations-Dench, Helen Mirren, & Maggie Smith have all had plenty of major films in the past decade, but the last time any of them were cited was Dench's nod for Philomena. It's possible that the Academy feels they've been given enough.
For Him: One of the ways that you get in, as I mentioned above, is by being a major part of a serious Best Picture nominee. Bernthal definitely has that in King Richard, which is a surefire Best Picture nominee and a near-certain winner for Best Actor (sorry, SAG nominations are out, I'm using word like "near-certain" for people like Will Smith at this point). He's been in the business forever (they like giving character actors like him a random nomination if they can), and he's a highlight in the back-half of King Richard.
Against Him: Is it possible that King Richard is really just the Will Smith show? The miss this morning for Aunjanue Ellis makes me think that in a year where there appears to be a lot of favored films for acting (the nominations are kind of all-over-the-place save for Best Actress), that giving a win to Smith will be enough for King Richard. Bernthal would've been higher if Ellis hadn't missed, but I do wonder if the reception to King Richard might be more appreciative than celebratory.
For Her: Dowd started out the year relatively strong. She got lots of citations for her work in Mass from critics, got a Critics Choice nomination (generally a good indicator of a nomination), and she was singled out by a number of critics as the best-in-show of the stellar cast of Mass. She's also been working toward this nomination for a while. You'd be hard-pressed to find a character actress who has dominated more prestige film & television projects in the past decade than Dowd...shouldn't Oscar give her her due?
Against Her: Dowd is the only person on this list who is neither a known movie star or featured in a legitimate Best Picture threat. She's famous, but probably not famous enough to get through this on her own. I do wonder if Mass might've been too heavy for an Academy that is favoring a lot of escapist fare this year...or if the Academy thinks that the Emmy she got for The Handmaid's Tale was good enough.
For Him: Few films this season have exceeded expectations quite like Being the Ricardos (in terms of precursors...its reviews feel, if anything, more-than-generous based on my humbled opinion). Both of the leading stars of the film (Kidman & Bardem) scored nominations from the Globes AND SAG, and I now have moved this into a probable Best Picture nominee. Simmons gets a plum part, he's the most famous supporting player in this movie, and a former Oscar winner. The question is less why Simmons, and more why he doesn't already have traction?
Against Him: It's a good part (alcoholic actor trying to stay afloat), but it's not the center of the story. Honestly if Simmons misses he can blame Aaron Sorkin for ripping out a lot of the best parts of the I Love Lucy story that might've worked for someone playing William Frawley (his struggles with booze are somewhat glossed over, and his brutal feud with Vivian Vance only gets tertiary importance).
For Her: She's Meryl f-ing Streep. Streep has a very, very short list of performances that she was in that fit the term Oscar bait that she didn't score for, and an even shorter list that were nominated for Best Picture that she didn't get in for (basically the only time they've crossed before this is The Hours). As a result, Streep is in a plum role in a film likely to score a Best Picture nomination, and yet she hasn't been dominating all year. It's possible, though, that Oscar will default to his regular ways & give her a nomination for her vulgar president in Don't Look Up...after all, if they're into it enough for Best Picture, it'll probably get an acting nod.
Against Her: There's a reason that Streep isn't scoring for Don't Look Up-she's terrible in it, which is honestly not something that Meryl Streep ever gets accused of. The lack of nominations from especially the Golden Globes, who normally are on her side, makes it seem like no one really wants to shine a light too brightly on this performance (I honestly think Streep would be embarrassed to get this nod).
For Her: She's a screen legend, an icon really from the Golden Age of Hollywood, in a year that we lost a lot of links to that era. She's also a great trivia question, as she was cited for West Side Story before, and gets a major emotional moment late in the film that could help get her attention. She'd be the oldest Oscar nominee ever...what more do you want in terms of narrative, AMPAS?
Against Her: If last year's snubs of Ellen Burstyn & Sophia Loren are any indication, Oscar is not feeling as sentimental as he once was. The SAG Awards were probably Moreno's best shot at gaining steam (Disney totally screwed up by not giving out screeners), considering they love to honor older actors, but her missing there might make you think that Oscar only has room for one Maria this year.
For Him: Part of me wonders if Nicolas Cage is the "Charlotte Rampling" of this year-someone who kept showing up in critics lists to the point where their nomination materialized simply because the people who had seen him in the movie kept putting him #1. Cage is obviously famous enough to get by on his big name, and the people who love him in Pig really love him. Also the Academy might want to remind the public that Cage was once considered one of the best actors of his generation before he became something of a Steven Seagal-style punchline.
Against Him: You've got four locks in the Best Actor category (Smith, Cumberbatch, Washington, & Garfield all fell pretty sewn in), and only one slot remaining. Cage could make it (he's #2 on this list for a reason), but he needs to hold back the very serious threats of Leonardo DiCaprio, Javier Bardem, & Peter Dinklage, the former two both Oscar winners & the latter a major TV star in a film that could break late. The flip side of the Charlotte Rampling coin is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, which could be where Cage lands.
For Her: Let's examine the evidence. Best Picture nominee? Almost certainly, and it comes by it honestly rather than it feeling manufactured. Other nominees from her film nominated? Yep, it looks probable that Troy Kotsur gets in. Is she famous? I mean, Marlee Matlin is an Oscar-winning actress who has worked steadily in a Hollywood that has not often had a lot of great roles for deaf actors. This feels like the sort of late-breaking campaign that should be able to materialize in the coming weeks, and with a lot of chaos happening in Supporting Actress (I don't buy that anyone other than Kirsten Dunst is safe), there's lots of options for Matlin to make it.
Against Her: I'm confused why this campaign doesn't have more traction, particularly after Kotsur scored some major precursors even without being as famous as his costar. That, and the fact that competition is fierce for this field (five of the women on this list are trying to make it in this lineup, and it's possible they all miss if Dunst, Ellis, Balfe, DeBose, & Negga all get in) are her biggest deterrents. But I do think she's a serious threat, and honestly (as of today), I'd be predicting her for the fifth slot.
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