 |
| Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) |
What we can tell you now, though, is what candidate recruitment looks like. While there are some late campaigns that are successful (at exactly this time in 2019, Jon Ossoff & Roger Marshall were announcing their eventually successful Senate, and Raphael Warnock had not yet announced his winning bid for the Senate), most of the candidates who will eventually become senators, if not almost all of them, are either announced by now or are heavily rumored for their candidacies. As a result, we can start to gage what's happening in a number of the closest states, though it's still unclear how much of a burden or help President Biden might end up being. This is likely the last ranking we'll do until 2022 when primaries start heating up, but I wanted to have this moment to check in on what are clearly becoming the most competitive options of the cycle. As a reminder, the Senate is tied 50-50, so the Republicans need at least one net pickup to take the majority, but the Democrats would like to gain some ground to not have to worry about a number of Democrats who represent states with Republican governors, as well as an insurance policy against a difficult 2024 cycle, where they'll have to defend senators in Trump-won states like West Virginia, Ohio, & Montana (to take the majority in 2025, the Democrats need to win at least one state that Trump won in 2020...or make DC a state). Also as a reminder, this is ranked by "most likely to flip parties" so #1 is the seat I think is the most likely to switch its partisan makeup.
 |
| Gov. Eric Greitens (R-MO) |
Missouri is a red state-it is not the swing state it once was (Barack Obama lost here by less than two-tenths of a point while Joe Biden lost the state by 16-points a decade later). There are more logical states like Colorado or Iowa to take this spot even if I don't think it's competitive. What's keeping it here is the potential for the Republicans to be shooting themselves royally in the foot. The party has far too many candidates running, including several that hold traditional launchpads to this office (Reps. Vicky Hartzler & Billy Long, AG Eric Schmitt), all of whom would easily take this seat. The problem for them is if they split the vote, that gives room for former Governor Eric Greitens to get the nomination. Greitens had to resign due to felony invasion of privacy investigation, as well as sexual misconduct allegations where he allegedly took photos without consent of a woman he was having an affair with while she was tied up & blindfolded (no, that's not a typo-that's really what he's accused of). It is possible that Mitch McConnell will find a way to stop this, perhaps getting the NRSC to back one of the more palatable nominees, but if Greitens were the nominee, he'd be the favorite, but not an unbeatable favorite if the Democrats ran a perfect campaign. That's a lot of if's, but it's also a testament to how few competitive races are on the maps beyond the next nine races that even the thought of a Roy Moore situation makes it a plausible Top 10 entry. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
 |
| State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R-OH) |
Ohio is probably headed in a red-leaning direction like Missouri despite also spending a century as one of the country's most quintessential swing states. In a similar situation, the metro areas aren't large enough (or blue enough) to keep the state competitive in the way that places like Michigan or Pennsylvania maintain. The best shot the Democrats have is if the Republicans fowl up in the primary, and there are two candidates they might do that with. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel is running a Trump-devoted race, but he did lose to Sherrod Brown in 2012, and he's a lousy campaigner. JD Vance, the New York Times bestselling author has been running a deeply conservative (some would correctly say homophobic) campaign, though he has struggled to gain faith with the Trump devoted who see him as an intellectual who exploited his "hillbilly roots" for financial gain. Republicans have other options, and these two might screw themselves like similar face-offs in Nebraska (in 2012) or Indiana (in 2018) did, resulting in someone like GOP State Chair Jane Timken scooting in & winning by being comparatively palatable. But if either of these two are the nominee, Rep. Tim Ryan has a shot-an uphill one, but a shot, to try & beat them by getting never Trump Republicans to the polls & hoping that, particularly against Vance, the Trump devoted don't get out without their leader on the ballot. (Previous Ranking: 9)
 |
| Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) |
Last time we did this, it wasn't entirely clear the Democrats would avoid a primary for the Florida US Senate seat currently held by Marco Rubio, who is surely contemplating a second run for president in 2024. While they didn't luck out in the governor's race, that's the case here. Rep. Val Demings, a former police chief & one of the runners-up for the vice presidency last year, has the primary to herself. This will help her raise money, but she'll need to do better than that against Rubio, who is ideally-situated to win both the large, conservative Cuban population which has proven to be one of the state's pivotal voting blocs, as well as the state's Republican stronghold in the panhandle. If Demings wants to win, she needs to find a way to increase Joe Biden's margins in her home area of Central Florida, continue the leftward trend of swingy Duval County, and not get routed by Rubio's numbers in Miami-Dade, which nearly abandoned Biden in favor of Trump last year. That's a tough dance, but it's again not an impossible one-look for Demings to invest early in turnout, particularly in Jacksonville & Tampa, if she wants a shot at actually beating Rubio & not just setting up a race against Rick Scott two years later. (Previous Ranking: 8)
 |
| Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R-NV) |
Nevada is a state that should worry Democrats. Like Ohio, Wisconsin, & Pennsylvania, the state is basically a race between the blue urban areas (in this case, Las Vegas, Henderson, & Reno) and the increasingly blood red rural areas of the state. Luckily for the Democrats, this formula still works, and has been their recipe to success for most of the last decade, but it's also a recipe that is risky (similar to Florida or North Carolina for the Republicans-it's just one race away from crumbling). The reason I'm downgrading this race, though, is that the Republicans seem to have made a bad call on their nominee. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt appears to be the frontrunner for the nomination, and he comes with a lot of baggage (this wouldn't have been the case had the GOP recruited someone like former Sen. Dean Heller). He lost the 2018 gubernatorial election to Steve Sisolak (which isn't a dealbreaker, but it is proof he's not infallible), and he's been a huge proponent for the "Big Lie" espousing false claims of voter fraud in Nevada. The problem for Laxalt is that it is a lie, and that Joe Biden did win in Nevada-his face on the campaign is going to help Democratic turnout in a state that, if turnout is high, Democrats win (there's an assumption that's true everywhere, but that's a lie-just look at Texas). Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto pulled a lucky break for the Democrats in getting Laxalt-she can't breathe easy (this is a swing state for a reason), but Laxalt gives the Democrats reason to be hopeful she will win a second term. (Previous Ranking: 6)
 |
| Gov. Pat McCrory (R-NC) |
North Carolina is dropping down a few rankings because unlike in Nevada, the Republicans appear to have pulled a better hand. Democrats lost out on running a race against Lara Trump here when the former president's daughter-in-law declined to get into the race, so they are left with Gov. Pat McCrory as the frontrunner for the nomination. McCrory wasn't a popular governor (it's why he lost), but he's not going to embarrass the state or be a natural deterrent for the Republicans in a place that they have marginally won three presidential cycles in a row, and have taken every statewide federal race since 2008 (albeit by slim margins). McCrory could falter if Donald Trump has anything to say about-he has endorsed Rep. Ted Budd, who brings more baggage here as one of the Republicans who voted against certifying the 2020 election. If Budd is the nominee, I'll probably move this up, but I am going to assume this is one of those races where Trump is spread too thin & doesn't have enough sway to get past a clear frontrunner. The Democrats have their own primary between former State Supreme Justice Cheri Beasley and State Sen. Jeff Jackson, but if I'm being honest, I don't think either will be able to beat McCrory in a neutral environment-they're going to need Budd as their competitor to have a shot here, and even then it'll be a Slight R/Tossup race in a state Joe Biden couldn't deliver. (Previous Ranking: 3)
 |
| Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) |
Where I do think that Trump's endorsement is going to matter more is in Georgia. Sen. Raphael Warnock is running for a full-term, and will face either State Ag Commissioner Gary Black or former football star Herschell Walker, the latter of whom is endorsed by the former president. Walker has a deeply problematic history, not just in trying to overturn the Georgia presidential elections (which, again, is a bad look where we've already proven twice in the last year that if Democrats turnout, they'll win since the election was legitimate), but also allegations of physical abuse from his ex-wife, who said that Walker threatened to kill her with a gun. Walker also has to potentially run with Gov. Brian Kemp, whom Trump detests and whose campaign he will actively be trying to destroy (even if it means that Stacey Abrams wins instead-Trump is not a "big party" guy in this regard). All of this is to say that while Warnock should take his campaign seriously, similar to Cortez Masto, he's drawn a solid card from the Republicans. (Previous Ranking: 2)
 |
| Attorney General Mark Brnovich |
Arizona is, like Georgia, a marginal state that Joe Biden barely won in 2020, but that also delivered key Senate flips in recent years. The Republicans have a solid candidate to take on Sen. Mark Kelly (who, like Warnock, is seeking a full term next year), Attorney General Mark Brnovich. The only problem is that Brnovich is not well-regarded by Donald Trump-Brnovich said categorically that there was no allegations of voter fraud in his state, which Trump didn't like, and has made him one of his "enemies" in a similar vein to Brian Kemp. Trump's problem is there isn't an obvious choice to back against Brnovich. Venture capitalist Blake Masters is a possibility (he is being backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, who is also involved with JD Vance's campaign), but he doesn't have the same cache as a Trump candidate like Rep. Andy Biggs or State GOP Chair Kelli Ward. The longer Trump waits, the more likely it is that Brnovich is the nominee, which bizarrely enough is the best thing for Trump's party...if Trump gets involved here similar to Georgia, though, and gets behind Masters, Biggs, or Ward, we could see Kelly win with a similar coalition that he pulled this off with last year. (Previous Ranking: 4)
 |
| Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) |
One of two big jumps on the list, New Hampshire is bad news for the Democrats, and currently the seat I think is their most vulnerable. Though Joe Biden won it (by a solid 7-point margin), Republicans appear increasingly likely to get their big fish in the form of Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Sununu is popular in the state (he won by 31-points while Biden won by seven last year), and polling shows that he'd start out slightly ahead of Sen. Maggie Hassan, who won by less than two-tenths of a point in 2016. One of the bigger questions here is how does Sununu's popularity holds up in the coming months as he shifts to a federal race, which is a different beast than running for governor (generally federal contests are much more likely to go with the state's natural partisanship). A factor that we should watch, even if we're a year out, is the recent Texas abortion ruling. If abortion were to become a key factor in this race, it'd hurt Sununu, who is pro-choice but recently signed into law several limits on state abortion rights that are considered unpopular in deeply libertarian New Hampshire. If Hassan has it her way (she is also pro-choice, and will have the full backing of Emily's List to underline that message), she'll frame Sununu as someone who will try to do nationally what the Republicans just did in Texas...and Sununu can't stray too far from the pro-life side without risking his right flank. But given poll numbers, I feel comfortable keeping this in the Top 3 until Hassan has proven that she can make that argument stick & hurt Sununu's poll numbers. (Previous Ranking: 7)
 |
| Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) |
The other state we're moving up is Wisconsin. This is a state that Biden barely won last year, and a state that has delivered for both parties in the past decade (delivered both triumph & heartache). The reason I'm moving it up is twofold. First, it's clear now that the Republicans have a problem on their hands with Sen. Ron Johnson, who has basically become the Senate's conspiracy theorist in residence, publicly spreading misinformation about vaccinations & pushing fringe theories about Covid-19. He also has stated that Nancy Pelosi was to blame for the January 6th terrorist attacks on the Capitol, and has downplayed their significance. While Johnson has won statewide twice, I will be real here-these are the kinds of positions that hurt turnout, and also that change minds. The Democrats have two pretty generic candidates (Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes & State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski), either of whom could frame this as a referendum on an increasingly unstable man. Tony Evers & Joe Biden prove that this isn't a bad strategy for Wisconsin Democrats (just nominate someone middle-of-the-road, rather than someone particularly compelling), and you have to think that the combination of Johnson's bombast & the Democrats scoring two solid options in the primary may make Mitch McConnell pressure Johnson to retire, as honestly at this point the WI Republicans would be better favored in an open seat race. (Previous Ranking: 5)
 |
| Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) |
We've talked a lot about recruitment here, and that's not going away in this race, which is open due to the retirement of Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Another state that Biden barely won (albeit by more than he won Georgia, Arizona, or Wisconsin), the Democrats have a likely frontrunner, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is running against two serious candidates: Rep. Conor Lamb & Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh. I'm on record on this blog as saying I think Arkoosh is the more practical threat to Fetterman's frontrunner status than Lamb (Lamb & Fetterman share the same gender & geographic reason of the state, while Arkoosh is the sole serious woman running & comes from the voter-rich Philadelphia metro area), but I think Fetterman starts out as the leader here, and given his atypical demeanor (his matter-of-fact style & unconventional appearance-he sports multiple tattoos, is 6'9" & regularly eschews a suit coat) will make him an easy sell to both Philadelphia progressives and the dwindling moderates in Scranton & Harrisburg, both of which you need as a Democrat to win statewide in the Keystone State. The biggest red flag for the Republicans, though, is that they have not recruited a serious candidate yet. While names like House Majority Leader Dave Reed & former Rep. Ryan Costello are still floating around the race, the highest-profile name to actually announce is Sean Parnell, whose biggest claim-to-fame is losing to Conor Lamb last year, and who just a couple of weeks ago got Donald Trump's endorsement. Parnell cuts an interesting demeanor, but his support of an audit of the Pennsylvania results could cost him. In fact, Parnell illustrates something we'll see not just here but across the country-will the accusations of election fraud help the Republicans turnout their base even without Trump on the ballot...or will they just help scare Democrats into voting in larger numbers? (Previous Ranking: 1)
No comments:
Post a Comment