Why Herschel Walker is a Big Problem for Mitch McConnell

Herschel Walker (R-GA)

Yesterday, one of the biggest announcements of the 2022 Senate cycle occurred for the NRSC, though you'd be hard-pressed to find a lot of Republicans excited about it.  Going into next year, there are four states that Mitch McConnell is eyeing a path back to a majority: Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire, & Georgia.  The latter might (on-paper) be the most-promising, because freshman Senator Raphael Warnock only won in a runoff election in part because of Donald Trump's repeated attempts to delegitimize the upcoming elections, which caused dampened Republican turnout & aggressive Democratic turnout to deliver Warnock (and Jon Ossoff) victories, and a Senate majority.  McConnell got the man who will likely be his candidate yesterday when football star Herschel Walker announced his candidacy.  But for McConnell, Walker's candidacy is a huge speed bump that he appears unlikely to avoid, and proof that Donald Trump is still causing issues for congressional Republicans as they strive to win back the majorities he cost them, despite no longer being president.

Let's take a step back and take a look at Walker, a political neophyte, and why he might pose a problem for McConnell.  Though Walker has Georgia roots (he was born in Wrightsville and was a star athlete at the University of Georgia where he went All-American three times and won the Heisman trophy in 1982), he has spent most of the past few decades living in Texas, not Georgia.  This sort of opportunism might not be a problem in itself (considering Walker's historic connections to Georgia), but they're just the tip of the iceberg.  More damning is the fact that Walker's divorce records indicate that he exhibited violent & aggressive behavior against his ex-wife, even threatening to kill her.  Combined with the fact that Walker is a political neophyte, one whose most noted public stance has been trying to overturn the 2020 election (which, it's worth remembering Joe Biden won in Georgia, and Raphael Warnock won in large part because Trump didn't quietly concede), and even Republican strategists are wondering if Walker is being given a prime Senate nomination for absolutely nothing.

It's worth asking why Walker is being given such a prime slot.  After all, the Georgia GOP holds every statewide office save for the Senate seats, and has a number of tenured House Republicans that would love a chance at a promotion.  The reason is Donald Trump.  Trump was an early supporter of Walker, putting his name out into the air long before Walker was considered a prime candidate, and this froze the field.  Trump's entrance into primaries has increasingly been a cause for alarm-it doesn't always mean that you'll win, but it can definitely make your campaign much more uphill.  Walker wouldn't have normally been able to freeze the field (he doesn't have the sort of electoral track record to pull it off), but thanks to Trump he did, and unless something bizarre happens, it's probable he's the nominee.

Mitch McConnell is clearly fighting a losing battle when it comes to keeping more "Chamber of Commerce" Republicans in the Senate, rather than giving in to the Gaetz/Greene/Boebert wing of the party.  While there are Republicans like Tommy Tuberville in the Senate, McConnell has avoided these types of figures (for the most part), but won't be able to past 2022.  Rep. Mo Brooks, one of the Republicans who spoke at a rally before the January 6th terrorist attacks, is the frontrunner to replace Richard Shelby in Alabama, and in a race where the primary is tantamount to the general election, he'll win there.  Former Gov. Eric Greitens, who allegedly taped a woman's hands above her head while she was blindfolded, and then took photos without her consent as a way to blackmail her (you read that right) is definitely in the running to be the GOP nominee in Missouri next year.  Nevada Attorney General (and 2020 elections conspiracy theorist) Adam Laxalt is the frontrunner in the Silver State for the Senate.  And this is on top of the Arizona Senate race, where McConnell's preferred choice (Attorney General Mark Brnovich) is clearly loathed by Donald Trump, who will almost certainly endorse in the race against Mark Kelly, potentially someone like Kelli Ward, a woman who literally once complained about how John McCain's cancer was "hurting her campaign."

All of this is going to be tough for McConnell to continue to manage in a caucus that has generally sided with him.  Some of these candidates will surely win (and it's worth noting that in Ohio & Pennsylvania, McConnell's candidate pool is at best underwhelming, though it's still forming and nowhere near some of the people he's already struggling to uplift), but the seats in Arizona, Nevada, & Georgia are what will make the difference in him winning the Senate, and he can't afford screw-ups.  Walker's entry gives the Democrats a huge advantage (not a decisive one, but a big one), one that McConnell can't afford if he's trying to count to 51-a Warnock victory isn't going to get Schumer the majority, but it sure as hell will get him a big lead toward one.

It's worth noting that Walker's candidacy has a uniqueness that some of these other candidates don't have.  Georgia has a governor's race next year, and perhaps more than any other governor's race, it's one that Donald Trump has a vested interest in.  That's because Trump blames incumbent Brian Kemp for him losing Georgia, and not standing up for his conspiracy theories as adamantly as he had hoped.  Walker endorsed Kemp in 2018, but it's hard to imagine he'll stand too tall with Kemp in next year's elections if he wants to stay in Trump's good graces.  This will result in either Kemp losing the primary (meaning another potentially tough pill for moderate Georgians who went for Mitt Romney but backed Biden/Warnock in the last year to swallow), or Kemp will run alongside Walker, splitting their ballots & making campaign coordination difficult.  Counter that with Raphael Warnock, who will have little trouble trying to coordinate with the probable Stacey Abrams campaign to turn out base Democrats in the state (one of the ways that Ossoff/Warnock were successful is that they tried to drive out different base voters toward their side), and you have yet another wrench in a Herschel Walker candidacy.