 |
| Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) |
Cuomo had faced immense pressure from a cascade of prominent Democrats, ranging from Joe Biden to Nancy Pelosi to Chuck Schumer to Kirsten Gillibrand, all demanding that he resign after a report that accounted for 11 women alleging sexual misconduct against Cuomo. Cuomo's resignation, though, was not a done deal. Few politicians in the party have felt more resistant to the conversations about the #MeToo movement than Cuomo (this makes more sense in hindsight), and indeed, the governor has far more personality traits of his arch-rival Donald Trump than virtually any other major Democrat. Trump, after all, never resigned (more on that in a second), and there was a sincere worry that Cuomo wouldn't resign, and that no Democrat would dare take on the governor, who has a reputation for retaliation. That he did seems to indicate that the New York legislature had likely signaled to Cuomo that he would be impeached (that's just speculation, but it does seem like the firewall that Cuomo would've waited to watch).
Cuomo's leaving doesn't end his woes, and indeed they probably just begin now. James' report notably did not file criminal charges or refer the matter to a district attorney's office, but it's possible that was because of the uniqueness of the case, and some legal experts have stated that Cuomo could face criminal charges based on James' report. This is one of a litany of scandals that Cuomo has to confront-he is also being investigated into whether or not he used state resources to promote his book or if his administration broke the law in his handling of reporting on nursing homes during the Covid-19 crisis. This resignation makes Cuomo's fall from grace inevitable, but it is a question mark just how far he's going to go here, and if he'll end up facing a jury before this is over.
 |
| Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) |
Cuomo's resignation does not hand the governor's office to a different party, however. His lieutenant governor is Kathy Hochul, a former one-term congresswoman who will become not only one of the country's most powerful figures overnight, but also the state's first female governor. Hochul will face a barrage of questions initially, both in how the state will handle school openings & the continuing Covid-19 crisis, but also her views on redistricting. Hochul, though she did serve a term in Congress, is not a well-known politician & it's unclear what her stance will be on a lot of hot topic issues
It's also worth noting that Hochul will have her sights set on 2022, which is just around the corner. Hochul was mentioned as a potential replacement to Cuomo, but most thought her low-profile would prevent her being able to take on other Democrats in the state for the nomination. As the sitting governor, she instantly gains a high profile, and it's possible that the state party, provided she doesn't screw up too badly in the coming months, will want to quickly rally around her rather than worry about a competitive primary.
 |
| Attorney General Tish James (D-NY) |
The one name that Hochul is most curious about that could show up in that primary is Tish James. James had long been rumored as the frontrunner if Cuomo decided not to seek reelection, or even as a potential primary challenger to the governor. James is in a tougher position, now, when it comes to 2022. For starters, she's not facing Cuomo-she's facing Hochul, and while the LG doesn't have the obvious cache that Cuomo did in terms of name recognition (nor the geographic advantage, as Hochul is from Buffalo rather than the more populous NYC where James hails from), James can't run a corruption-based primary against Hochul, who has (so far) not been implicated in any of Cuomo's scandals. Also, James risks being labeled an opportunist considering that Hochul is only the governor because of James' report. This isn't fair (James was just doing her job), but it's going to be a difficult political thread to weave unless Hochul doesn't run for a full term.
This leaves James in a tough spot. The 62-year-old Attorney General is not young enough to wait 6 years for Hochul to leave office without another seat in mind, and neither of the state's Senate offices are opening up anytime soon. She'd be too old to get a federal judgeship, and it's unlikely that Joe Biden will ask Merrick Garland to leave before his four years as Attorney General are up. James could be a choice in a second term for Biden, but that's taking a lot of risk. As a result, James doesn't have a lot of easy choices here, which wouldn't have been the case in an open race for Cuomo's seat.
 |
| House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) |
As I mentioned above, Hochul is going to have to handle a lot of issues in office quickly, specifically whether or not she will make it easier or harder for the Democrats in the New York legislature to gerrymander the state's congressional districts. It's virtually impossible to imagine a way that the Democrats hold the majority in 2022 without making significant gains in New York, and that's only going to be possible via gerrymandering-will Hochul go along with this? Andrew Cuomo had been more likely to veto these maps, and indeed Cuomo had been more foe than friend to progressive causes during his time as governor. Hochul was a moderate during her time in the House, but there's too many unknowns to assume that she'd maintain such a profile as governor. Specifically, given how much pressure national Democrats will be placing on Hochul to back the party & help Nancy Pelosi out (and the fact that if she doesn't, she'll surely face a credible primary challenge, perhaps giving James her best wedge in a hypothetical primary), it's probable that Hochul will cover her left flank & be more amenable to Democrats gaining through gerrymandering than Cuomo would be (it's certainly what I'd do in this scenario).
 |
| Former President Donald Trump (R-FL) |
Cuomo's resignation throws a monkey wrench in a media narrative that was ready to "both sides" Cuomo against Donald Trump. After all, Cuomo's allegations were not much different than the myriad ones put forward by women against the former president, and the media tends to love an easy argument rather than taking a more nuanced approach. Cuomo's resignation, though, put him in a long list of Democratic politicians (such as Al Franken and John Conyers) who have resigned in the face of sexual impropriety allegations, while Republicans continue to do nothing about this. For a party that has made a point of trying to attract more women, there could not be a more stark comparison between how the Democrats handle sexual misconduct (investigate, condemn, & resign) to the Republicans (ignore, evade, & deflect). The media seems unlikely to stick to this angle, but it's obvious that the two parties disagree about combatting sexual violence in that one cares about stopping it & one just pretends it doesn't happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment