What Jill Underly's Victory Means for Wisconsin

State Superintendent-Elect Jill Underly (D-WI)

Jill Underly is not a figure that you'd necessarily associate with aggressive partisan politics.  A former history teacher, she eventually graduated into becoming a superintendent in her rural district, and was instrumental in development of federal grant money in her home state.  Atypical politicians run for office all of the time, though, and yesterday Underly scored a big win for the Democratic Party.  Though it was officially nonpartisan, Underly was endorsed by the Wisconsin Democratic Party, and with her victory, she scored the first statewide win in a swing state since the Georgia Senate runoffs in January for the left.  For a party in the early stages of Joe Biden's presidency, it's a sign that enthusiasm for progressive politics, even in a low turnout election, remains high in the Badger State.

It's important to never read too much into special elections and what they will portend for the next election on the map.  History is littered with cases where special elections were canaries in the coal mine (the 2009 Massachusetts Senate election, the 2020 Wisconsin Supreme Court race), while other times it turned out very differently (the special elections of Ben Chandler & Stephanie Herseth were hardly good news for John Kerry a few months later).  But Wisconsin does feature two important elections next year, one of which could decide control of the Senate, so it's worth asking where the party's are at for those contests, and if Underly's victory might help embolden recruitment for the races, which remains tepid at best.

In 2022, both Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) are up in Wisconsin.  In a state that Donald Trump won by less than a point in 2016 and Joe Biden won by less than a point in 2020, both sides can reasonably expect to compete here, and yet for such a plum opportunity for advancement, neither side has mobilized much into these races.  

You might claim this is too early, but it's really not.  While obviously no race is decided yet, other states in a similar situation (like Pennsylvania or Georgia) have attracted boatloads of names on both sides interested in pursuing the offices, but in Wisconsin it's been largely crickets.  This can be dangerous, as waiting too long to get into a race can result in you not being able to catchup.  After all, specifically with the governor's race, the incumbent is already the de facto nominee, and so Republicans waiting around are losing money & momentum against Evers, who has the race to himself.

Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI)

Some of the biggest names in Wisconsin politics have already turned down a race against the mild-mannered Evers, who is generally well-liked if nowhere as popular as neighboring governors like Tim Walz, Gretchen Whitmer, & JB Pritzker.  Gov. Scott Walker has said no to a rematch (likely ending any chances he would ever have at a comeback), as has Sen. Ron Johnson.  Former Republican Rep. Sean Duffy & State Senate President Chris Kapenga have both hinted at runs, but their reluctance to jump into the race makes me wonder if they're leery about taking on Evers, who might well become more popular as Wisconsin opens up in the coming months & the economy rebounds.  This could be a problem in general with taking on incumbent governors next year-we saw this effect with governors in the 1990's, who became increasingly difficult to beat as people associated their newfound economic prosperity with the incumbents.  But leaving Evers in office comes with a lot of risks, particularly when it comes to the powerful Wisconsin Supreme Court, which is currently 4-3 with conservatives in the majority.  It's probable that if Evers wins reelection he'll be afforded at least one appointment, potentially upending the majority for a time in the state...and giving the Democrats a window to redraw the heavily gerrymandered state legislative lines in the state to be more equitable (the Republicans basically have a monopoly on the State Senate/House).

The Wisconsin Senate race has bigger question marks on both sides.  We still do not know whether or not Sen. Ron Johnson will seek a third term.  This of course puts Republicans in a bind, and Johnson, perhaps the most cantankerous figure in a body filled with obstinance, doesn't seem to care that he's putting the Republican Party in his state in a pinch  Johnson's recent overtures into the national media could potentially be setting up a presidential run (I'd put him in the top tier of contenders, but only if he can make it through 2022 without a loss under-his-belt), and he may not want to risk running, instead heading straight into a national bid.  The longer he waits, though, the more likely it is that the Democrats can gain a leg up...

...if they can find a viable candidate.  To date, the only candidates to declare are Tom Nelson, a county executive (with several high-profile losses under his belt) and Milwaukee Bucks VP Alex Lasry, neither Tier 1 candidates.  Democrats have a solid bench here, and there are some candidates flirting with running, but none of them have been willing to make the jump.  Rep. Ron Kind (D) is almost certain to get a tough draw in redistricting, and one could make a sincere argument he'd have a better chance at staying in Congress in the Senate than in the House, but he's struggled with risks his whole political life (he's the Wisconsin version of Tim Ryan), and has not made the jump.  Statewide officials LG Mandela Barnes, AG Josh Kaul, and State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski are all interested in the bid (the latter the most likely of the three), but none seem willing to take the plunge.  In an era where a competitive Senate race like Wisconsin will require these candidates to raise as much as $30-40 million in the run of their election, sitting on the fence starts to make it more difficult for them to succeed every day.  After Underly's victory, it's proof that Wisconsin might still vote blue in the Biden era...but someone's going to have to get into this race soon if the opportunities aren't going to wash away.