One of our favorite traditions on the blog is every year we do our annual "No Globe/No SAG/No Problem" article. While the Globes & SAG Awards are a good barometer for the Oscars, they are not always right-on if you use them solely as a predictions tool (it'd be more interesting for all of us if we just used them as an award but since we don't I'm going to keep writing this article). Every year since 2006, the Academy has chosen at least one name that was not nominated at the Globes/SAG. Below are the lucky ones from the last decade:
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver
2011: Gary Oldman & Max von Sydow
2010: Javier Bardem
As you can see, a few trends emerge. Oscar likes to over-reward its Best Picture nominees, or at least films that are already a lock for another acting nomination (movies voters are already watching anyway). They tend to gravitate in recent years toward actors who are well-liked and "Oscar-bound" in terms of their career trajectory, but haven't been nominated yet (Rampling, Manville, Hardy, Oldman). And they generally don't invite films that are getting their sole nomination (Rampling being the exception on that front).
This year, I have slightly more names than usual, though ultimately I don't think we'll have more than 1-2 contenders emerge. There are three reasons for that. The first is trying to understand the gap-the Oscar nominations aren't for another month, so if a film does catch on in that time frame, we won't know it. In a normal year most of the narratives would be baked even for films that hadn't been released yet, but trying to gage what's factoring into the awards is tough because of box office (our second reason). Box office isn't really a component this year (even a film like The Croods: A New Age which has done surprisingly well at the box office given the pandemic are not making headlines for their grosses), so movies that might have been helped by being well-loved by audiences (such as News of the World) don't have that luxury, and can't use that as a way to be the "crowdpleaser" nomination this year. The problem is I can't really feel out what's replacing "box office" as a normal Oscar factor (if anything is at all), and so I find the race is looser as a result.
The third is that I haven't seen all of these movies. The 2021 releases are difficult to track down (though I was lucky to catch The Father at a festival screening), and most came out during the last week (when I had a busy work week). For example, I'm not listing someone like Denzel Washington in The Little Things because he seems to have no buzz (and it might not be that kind of a performance), even though the enthusiasm for Jared Leto's work combined with Oscar's longtime love of Washington makes him an "on-paper" kind of person who could show up here. I am listing, however, 15 actors below that I do think should keep their dance cards open, and like I said, at least one or two of them are going to join a select group who skipped the whole awards season...and still ended up with an Oscar nomination on their shelf.
Honorable Mention: A couple of names I want to throw out here. Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie) and Stanley Tucci (Supernova) both have buzzy projects that went nowhere with HFPA/SAG. It's possible these were too late-breaking & Oscar will catch the buzz, or it's also possible their studios botched the releases and they go home empty-handed. LaKeith Stanfield is the lead role in Judas the Black Messiah, and if that's a Best Picture nominee he could make it (he's the sort of actor who is going to get a nomination at some point), but all of the buzz is on Daniel Kaluuya so I'm not feeling it too big this year. And finally, while she somehow missed at the Globes (the biggest shock of the week for me, even over the Leto citation) and the SAG Awards, Meryl Streep should never be entirely counted out for an Oscar nomination. She has (just once) gotten into the Oscars without a citation for either (1987's Ironweed), and the fifth slot in Best Actress is a true free-for-all...I would be stunned if she got it at this point, but to dismiss her chances even after all of this would be foolishness.
For Him: Hanks is a beloved star, one whom the Academy finally welcomed back last year. I said up-top that films that are in the hunt for Best Picture or another acting prize tend to do well here, and with Helena Zengal nominated twice, and this being the kind of classy (but accessible) movie that AMPAS likes to fill up its Best Picture field with (even if they don't nominate it for Best Director), I wouldn't count him out. All of the fields have roughly 4 nominees that feel locked, and one truly open fifth slot, so there's room.
Against Him: No film, in my opinion, is hurt more by a lack of box office than News of the World. In a dour year, its message of hope & unlikely families would have been a surprise hit at the box office (for my money), and as a result there would've been more demand for the movie to get nominated here. Without it, I don't know if Hanks (in a role he could do in his sleep, even if he's watchable as ever) really needs a nomination over someone like a Steven Yeun or Gary Oldman, who are in movies that are likely to be bigger deals with Oscar. Plus, Hanks has a weirdly long history of being in prestige projects where other actors got nominated but he didn't (this would be the tenth such instance of this happening).
For Him: Like I said up-top, when we see someone sneak in last minute, they're doing so for a film that A) is a Best Picture contender & likely looking at additional acting nominations and B) is a veteran actor whom the Academy has never gotten around to nominating. Charles Dance fits both those descriptions like a glove. He's playing a real-life figure in a key role in his film, and in a movie full of supporting actor turns, he's the one that's clearly meant to stand out (if you watch the trailers or pay attention to star billing).
Against Him: It's a smaller part, and probably needs 1-2 more scenes to make it an easy sell for Oscar. It's also hard to tell how wild the industry is about Mank. The Globes loved it, SAG nearly forgot about it, and audiences have been mixed on its cold approach. Oscar is going to have to love it for something like this to happen (though I can't quite shake Alan Alda in The Aviator, the most similar doppelganger for Dance to cling toward).
For Him: Like Dance, Ben-Adir's biggest asset is that he's in a big-deal movie. If One Night in Miami is a hit with AMPAS (and it could well be), they may be finding a way to nominate it outside of Leslie Odom, Jr. Ben-Adir got plaudits from people who saw the movie, and many considered him the best-in-show of the film. Plus playing a real-life figure never hurt any actor.
Against Him: It's an introverted part, and Ben-Adir might suffer from reverse category fraud a bit. He's not as famous as Odom is, but he's still "the lead" while the two have roughly commensurate runtimes...will Oscar voters really put him here while they're putting Odom in supporting? Part of me thinks they should have tried to convince us that all four actors were supporting, though that could have led to category splitting...I think this isn't showy enough to land in a lead category, but if they like the movie I could be wrong (hence him on this list).
For Him: We continue with another actor from a major Best Picture contender whom so far has been ignored by the televised awards. I put David Strathairn higher than the other two for a pair of reasons. First, he's been nominated before, so I know Oscar likes him. Second, and more important, he has no internal competition (he does, but no one famous enough to get in here). If you want to honor Nomadland beyond Zhao & McDormand, he's your best bet, and the film has many acolytes (it's the kind that's going to get a lot of #1 placements on nominations ballots for Best Picture).
Against Him: It's a small role, smaller in stature to the film than even Dance's, and it's not showy at all. It's good (he's always good), but Oscar rarely goes for this kind of small-arch, inward role, particularly if others haven't noticed it first. While Supporting Actor has a lot of directions it could go, this would be an unusual fifth slot nomination.
For Him: Occasionally (Cotillard, Riva, Bardem) in the past decade we've seen a performer from a major foreign-language film get into this race without any precursors, and I do think that's possible here. Mikkelsen is well-known to Hollywood, and has been in English-language productions for the past decade. This is a big, plum part, and it's a surprisingly smart movie; even if you see it without a lot of expectations, it's going to surprise you & you'll enjoy it. I can't shake the idea that this is the sort of performance that if enough Academy members see it, he gets in.
Against Him: Will enough see it? Again, box office plays a part here-will the Academy reach for the foreign-language drinking drama as they're trapped in their house with their families? Mikkelsen is not a previous nominee like Cotillard or Bardem, so while he's well-known he's not an Academy favorite.
For Him: He won the NYFCC award (always a good indicator for the Oscar), and is getting best-in-career style nominations for the film. Oscar likes to honor long-working character actors when they get their moment-in-the-sun, and Best Actor is fluid enough (only Hopkins, Boseman, & Ahmed feel truly safe) that a new name or two sneaking in isn't without question. The Academy went all-in for the last Spike Lee movie.
Against Him: The SAG snub is baffling. HFPA might've just not liked the movie, but SAG nominated it for Cast and Boseman, yet they snubbed Lindo (who has the best performance in the film). I don't really know what's happening here, but the consensus seems to be that the industry isn't feeling Da 5 Bloods, and if that's the case Boseman might be the only contender from the film other than Lee in writing...leaving Lindo out of the running for someone like Steven Yeun (in a movie they seem more inclined toward).
For Him: I'm aware the tie is a cheat here, but mostly I can't figure out quite how to read Chicago 7, which seems like the early frontrunner to take Best Picture at the Oscars this year. If that's the case, it's possible someone other than Sacha Baron Cohen will get into this field, but I don't know who as the cast is massive (Eddie Redmayne or Jeremy Strong aren't crazy suggestions either). Rylance & Langella are previous Oscar nominees in big, intense parts in the movie, and if they want to give the movie a dual nomination they're the two most-likely to benefit from such a move from Oscar.
Against Him: Dual nominations in the same category aren't as popular as they were a few decades ago, and it's possible that these two both split their votes with each other or that Academy voters feel that honoring Baron Cohen is enough of a nod to the movie as they need to give.
For Him: He won every critical prize known to man, and he's in a film that is getting attention for Best Actor (and honestly feels like an outside shot at Best Picture). His role isn't a co-lead, but it is sizable, and he gets his Oscar-bait clip (his final moments onscreen). Plus, this is the kind of role Oscar has gone for in the past with a character actor who has his moment in the sun.
Against Him: The lack of a SAG nomination hurts (a lot). Raci was never going to be famous enough for the Globes, but the SAG Awards will honor actors who haven't been favorites before with the Academy. That he missed there makes me wonder if televised awards bodies aren't sold on the film beyond Ahmed, or if they are capable of noticing a relatively obscure character actor (who isn't as famous or ubiquitous as Laurie Metcalf or JK Simmons who went this route in recent years).
For Her: She's an Oscars icon, and she's in a film that's getting attention (albeit not for her). She'd also be the oldest nominee ever (a hook!), and she has one scene late in the movie that is such a "nominate this!" moment that it's difficult to see Oscar voters watching it & not suddenly taking notice of what she's doing. Supporting Actress, especially for the final nomination, is very influx.
Against Her: Her big scene in the movie comes quite late in an intense movie (how many AMPAS voters skip the rest of the film after the first twenty minutes?), and while it's not a small part historically (there have been smaller ones cited in recent years), one wonders if we've entered a world where a performance this short can compete with co-leads like Maria Bakalova or Helena Zengal.
For Her: She's an Oscar-winning legend who came out of retirement to do this part. While it isn't in contention in other categories like many above this, Loren doesn't really need that-she's the attraction here. And while McDormand/Davis/Mulligan have locked down the first three slots, Vanessa Kirby doesn't feel "solid" to me considering the nature of her film (and the Burstyn snubs), and Best Actress has arguably the loosest fifth slot of the acting fields: Amy Adams, Michelle Pfeiffer, & Andra Day all could get into this field as the last nominee, but none of them feel like sure, or even solid bets based on super-late release dates (no buzz) or questionable reviews (Adams). All of this is to say that I'd probably still predict Loren (at least as of today) for that final nomination slot as she could surprise.
Against Her: The SAG Awards snub stings, as they tend to favor their legends a bit more than others. Loren is hurt this year by not being able to show up at red carpets...that Old Hollywood glamour would've made her not just a surefire nominee (we want her to come!) but a threat for the win, in my opinion. Without that top-of-mind, I wonder if she's become out-of-sight for Oscar voters.
No comments:
Post a Comment