Trump Paranoia, and How to Worry the Right Way

President Donald Trump (R-FL)

Today we're going to talk about something that is a little scary, so I want to ask that if you're reading this article you promise me that you read all of it, rather than just pick & choose the parts you want to feed your own narrative.  It's meant to have an honest conversation about a real potential topic, one that I disagree with the way a lot of people on their social media are handling this conversation, even if I do share their concerns.

Last week, President Donald Trump on Twitter tweeted the following (I'm going to quote directly): "With Universal Mail-In (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRADULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA.  Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"

This contains a lot of errors, and not just in grammar.  Trump is technically correct that there is a difference between universal mail-in voting and absentee voting (he has oftentimes left out the universal in other statements, in which case there is no difference, so I want to just clarify that quickly).  However, there is no indication that states that employ universal mail-in ballots such as Colorado and Washington suffer from more voter fraud or are more susceptible to elections tampering as a result of mail-in voting than other states, so this is egregiously false and said without any sort of evidence.  The bigger point here, though, was Trump's flouting of the election date, and speculating that because of Covid elections should be moved back.

This is a concern, if he actually has it, that his public actions indicate he doesn't really understand how to alleviate (I suspect he does not actually care about it based on other public statements).  Mail-in ballots, and expansion of mail-in or early voting options, is the best way to ensure the majority of Americans are voting in November.  If Trump really wanted to have a safer election, he would be able to achieve one by pushing for more access to absentee/early voting in every state, and by funding the US Postal Service to ensure that they have the resources to conduct such an enormous task, through funding and ensuring employees are able to accommodate an increase in mail traffic in the coming weeks.  He has not done so, in fact he and his party have actively avoided espousing for these accommodations, which makes me think this is part of a larger question that has been posed multiple times throughout this presidency-what happens if Donald Trump does not accept the results of the November election?

We have never had this issue in the history of the country-the hand-off of power has always been an assumed part of the presidential legacy, and it's been nonpartisan.  I actively disliked George W. Bush his eight years in office, but I had no doubt in 2004 that had John Kerry won the election, that Bush would've conceded, even if he was unhappy with the results.  The same thing would've happened in 2012 had Barack Obama lost to Mitt Romney.  The peaceful transfer of power is a cornerstone of our democracy, something seemingly unbreakable.  Based on Trump's comments, there is cause for concern, though with Trump it is always worth wondering how much of this is just bluster and how much is real.  There's just as decent of a chance that Trump spends the two months after the election publicly taking swipes at Biden, blaming Mitch McConnell for causing him to lose, and refusing to go to the Inauguration, spending a few months in Mar-a-Lago (likely trying to avoid subpoenas) before launching Trump TV as a Fox News challenger.

Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)

But even if this is serious, the question I ask is what an average American can do?  In conversations discussing how to handle this, most articles go in two different directions.  They either say "people are not taking this seriously enough" or they feel like people preemptively trying to say "I told you so."  Very few articles, in my opinion, feel honest about this conversation.  This is because if you're saying the former (I'm not spending the time on the latter as those people are not worth your time), you're not being fair to your audience (everyone is taking this seriously), and you're also not arming them with ways that they can help prevent Trump from doing this, because there's a difference between taking this seriously, and actively preventing this if it happens.

That's because unless it actually happens, the reality is there's very little we can do to prepare for it, and I don't think it's worthwhile for average people's time and worry to be on things they cannot control, particularly since there are ways that you can control this outcome that have little to do with Trump.  Unless you are a member of Trump's or Biden's campaign, a member of Congress or a candidate that may win a seat in November, a governor, a Secretary of State, a high-ranking judge or military official, a high-ranking member of a swing state legislature, or a potential presidential elector, this is not something that you should be spending your time worrying about.  Ultimately these are the people that will be stopping Trump if on November 4th he sees Joe Biden has hit 270 electoral votes (or sees that the election is still undecided due to vote counting) and declares that he's the winner, even if he's not.

The one thing you can do, though, is make sure that Trump is not the winner.  This is where people's time, effort, and agency should be focused, and this isn't just meant as cliche, as 2020 is different when having these conversations, and not in the hackneyed "most important election of your life" sort of ways (even if this may actually be the most important election of your life).  The most important thing you can do is ensure that Donald Trump loses, and loses by a lot.  It will be more difficult for him to make the argument that the election was "rigged" (even if it isn't, certainly not in the way he implies) if Joe Biden gets to 350 electoral votes than if he wins with 270.  This is the same for the popular vote-Biden getting the electoral college and a 10-point margin nationally is a bigger deal than a 5-point or 2-point margin.  Every vote, every electoral vote, is an argument against Trump, and makes his claims of victory more skeptical.  Trump's entire brand is based on him being a "winner"-the bigger loser you make him, the less likely people will buy him complaining about not being a "winner."

It's also worth noting that every defeat you give the Republicans along with Trump is a step to help this cause if you're worried about it.  As I listed above, if this is an issue (and that's still a very big if), the people who will be most able to help this cause are mostly elected officials.  Every new governor, senator, congressman, state legislator, mayor, judge...all of these people are going to help the fight against Trump.  By voting, volunteering, campaigning, and helping to get-out-the-vote, you are helping to ensure there are more people at the top of the government that won't enable Trump, and will ensure that (even if he doesn't like it), he will leave power.

In 2020, though, there are extra steps you need to take to ensure that you are helping people (including yourself) vote.  The first is realizing that more people are voting absentee than ever before, many of them for the first time, and with absentee balloting, there are additional rules and misconceptions.  I'm going to list a couple here, and if you see yourself in this, don't be embarrassed, as it's not something we are inherently taught.

In the past couple of months, I have had one person say they were automatically mailed a ballot every election in a state that doesn't do that (they were confused about the difference between a ballot and a ballot application).  Others who weren't sure about absentee ballots & postage stamps, some who were not aware if they were eligible to vote at their current address, and some who weren't sure who qualified as a legal witness. I had a number of people confused about the time of the absentee ballot requests, assuming that they could register to vote and it would be immediately processed (in most jurisdictions this can take a while, frequently up to a week or two, to process), and others who were not sure how to request an absentee ballot if they were going to move in the next few months (and whether they'd have to re-register).  And many people who, within two weeks of their state's primary, were still sitting on their ballots, and had not yet returned them.  These are all legitimate concerns, all questions someone in your life may have, and if you're going to be trying to fight Donald Trump, their questions you should be prepared to know the answer to so you can help.  So let's answer them now.

Unless you live in Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Utah, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Nevada, or the District of Columbia, you do not automatically receive an absentee ballot-you must request one (it's worth noting that Trump is suing to get Nevada to stop doing this, so if you're in that state pay attention if he follows through with that lawsuit).  You must also be an active voter in most of these states, so if you're not registered to vote, you will need to do so.  You do not technically need to have a postage stamp on a ballot, but if it doesn't have a pre-paid stamp on it, I will leave it up to you if you want to count on a strapped postal service to deliver a mail without a stamp on it (I'm trying to stay grounded in facts here, but honestly-I would put one on even if I know technically I don't have to unless it says I don't have to)...it's your call.

You must be registered to vote at your current address, and you must be registered to vote if you are voting absentee-there are delays in getting your registration processed, so I would suggest getting this taken care of right away.  The absolute latest deadline for every state is listed here, with the earliest a state shuts off their ability to register being October 3rd, with many states quickly following.  If you have moved, either in your state or out of your state, you will need to re-register.  If you are under 18 but will be 18 on or before Election Day, you can register in every state starting tomorrow (every state you could do it starting today save Alaska, where you can do it beginning tomorrow).  It can take a week or two for this to process, so I cannot stress enough-do it now.

If you are voting absentee, especially for the first time, there are two critical things you need to do (aside from requesting a ballot if you're in a state you need to and registering at your current address).  First, you need to make sure that you read the instructions.  Depending on your municipality, you may need a witness signature (make sure to read the qualifications of who would be this person for you, but frequently it's a registered voter from your state or notary), and you will likely need to follow a series of putting several color-coded envelopes together.  It's not hard, but it does require you to read the instructions before you fill it out, so I suggest doing that as soon as you get your ballot, and planning ahead if you need to get a witness signature (figuring out who that would be).

Secondly, you need to mail this as soon as possible.  This has a new urgency for this election, and will require me to give opinion along with fact.  Due to financial strains and increased traffic for packages due to Covid, the postal service is extremely slow.  As a result, you should allow for at least two weeks from when you mail your ballot for it to arrive on Election Day.  The reason for this is pretty simple-you want your ballot to have arrived by Election Day, regardless of your local laws.  Many states will provide some proviso about postmarking ballots, and counting them several days after, and while this is true, postmarks are not something you can control, and are not universally utilized by post offices (check your mail sometime and you'll definitely find letters without a postmark).  As a result,  even if your state allows your ballots to come in postmarked until November 3rd, if you mail it on the 3rd and suddenly it doesn't get a postmark when it arrives on the 6th, it likely will not be counted.  Therefore, allow at least two weeks for it to arrive; personally, I have waited four years to cast this ballot and I will be mailing it within 48 hours of receiving it.  Many states will have election drop boxes (which are preferable to utilize if you can since you don't need to worry about it getting there on time since it already "is there") and others allow you to track your ballot like you would a package through UPS; I suggest you utilize either if you have the option.

If you are not voting absentee, I suggest you vote early.  This ensures it's done, and you don't have to worry about something unexpected on Election Day; early voting also has less crowds, especially the earlier you vote, so less chance for Covid exposure.  Here is a list of which states allow early voting, and when.  Early voting locations are rarely the same place as where you'd vote on Election Day, so double check your Secretary of State or State Elections site to figure out where your polling place is.

I strongly urge everyone to vote absentee or early if they have that option.  However, the most important thing to do is to vote.  If you are voting on Election Day, come prepared.  You will need to research your polling place, as it might have changed since the election.  Bring any form of identification that your state requires (some states require photo ID's).  Wear masks, and because there will likely be long lines depending on your polling place, be prepared that you may be outdoors & plan for the weather.  And allow yourself time to vote.  While some areas you'll be in-and-out in a matter of minutes, others it has taken hours to vote this primary season, and so make sure you have set aside the time to vote if those lines are long.  If you don't think you can pull yourself away from work or family long enough to give an hour or two that day...explore absentee or early voting options.

We cannot decide how Trump will treat this election.  If he decides to do something unspeakable on November 4th, we will tackle that when it comes.  But what we can control is what news he gets on Election Night and the days after as all ballots are tabulated.  Get a voting plan.  Make sure you're registered to vote.  Make sure your friends and family have voting plans (text them-they're all stuck inside anyway and are bored), and that they are registered.  And be prepared to vote as early as you can to ensure your vote is counted.